Image courtesy of Bosch Solar

The structural oversupply of solar modules on the global market has driven down prices for photovoltaic panels at an astonishing pace. And new analysis shows that decline will only continue into 2012.

In 2011, the average selling price for crystalline silicon PV modules was cut in half — falling from $1.80 at the beginning of the year to $0.90 in December, according GTM Research.

With a glut of silicon now on the market, buyers are starting to renegotiate contracts downward. This could help drop the average price for crystalline silicon solar modules to as low as $0.70 a watt. Brett Prior, a senior analyst with GTM Research explains how a ramp-up in silicon production activity in 2011 will impact the market over the coming year:

In 2011, in the polysilicon industry — and the solar supply chain in general — manufacturing outpaced end-use. After a half-decade of silicon demand outstripping supply, the aggressive expansion plans finally overshot. This supply/demand imbalance will push producers to lower contract prices closer to the level of manufacturing costs at $20 per kilogram, and will force higher-cost manufacturers to exit the industry. While the solar market will continue to grow at a 10 percent to 20 percent pace in the coming years, reductions in the amount of silicon used in each module means that end demand for polysilicon will grow at a slower pace. The end result is that the current roster of over 170 polysilicon manufacturers and startups will likely be winnowed down to a dozen survivors by the end of decade.

Great news for the economics of solar projects. Not so great news for smaller, high-cost silicon producers.

Silicon is the most expensive material for conventional solar modules. When the industry faced a shortage of silicon from 2005 through 2008, the prices for solar modules stayed high. Since then, manufacturing processes have evolved to use less silicon, helping drive down the cost of production. (For more on this, see: Anatomy of a Solar PV System: How to Continue “Ferocious Cost Reductions” for Solar Electricity).

The relentless price reductions are likely to open up demand in a variety of new markets in 2012, and stimulate continued development in countries that had been written off due to steep decreases in incentives. (See: Germany Installed 3 GW of Solar PV in December — The U.S. Installed 1.7 GW in All of 2011).

Global solar PV installations for 2011 are expected to tally around 24 GW — up from 17 GW in 2010. With incentive cuts in the U.S., Germany, Italy and the UK, analysts predicted a flat or down year in 2012. But the continued price elasticity in solar PV may make 2012 yet another solid growth year — with some projecting installation of up to 30 GW of PV installations.

Reports of extensive areas of methane — a powerful greenhouse gas — bubbling up through the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) have generated more questions than answers In this double post, Skeptical Science examines the data available to date and then discusses the findings of 2011 with the Dr. Natalia Shakhova from the research team.

Bathymetric map of the Arctic with key features noted and subject area in red.

by John Mason, cross-posted from Skeptical Science

Summary

The research team have located new and large (~1km wide) plumes of outgassing methane, in areas not previously investigated, so this is not necessarily a recent development: at least, there are no previous data from these areas to compare the large plumes with.

That the area has seen warming over a prolonged time since the Holocene transgression and that there has been an additional, sharp recent warming event is well-documented. Whether there is increased outgassing caused by the additional recent warming is an important question that requires urgent investigation, a point indeed made in Shakhova et al’s 2010 paper in Science  – PDF – see last paragraph.

Further work will better constrain known current methane emissions to the atmosphere, currently estimated to be 8 Tg (1 Tg=1 million tonnes) per year. Clearly, because new sources have been identified, the figure is greater than 8Tg but how much so remains to be discovered.  

A large (multi-gigaton) abrupt release event is considered possible, but when is not known. It is important to remember that hydrocarbons, including methane, migrate upwards through the Earth’s crust from their source-rocks due to their low density. Basic oil geology tells us that recoverable oil and gas deposits occur where such upward migration has been blocked by an impermeable barrier (an oil- or gas-trap) such as a salt-dome or anticline including thick impermeable strata such as a clay-bed. In such places, the accumulation can build up to the point where the oil/gas is in an highly pressurised state – hence the “blowouts” that have been recorded over the years in some oilfields.

What Shakhova is suggesting is that if buried gas hydrates destabilise, what could result is accumulations of pressurised methane capped off by permafrost, which because it is degrading might lose its effectiveness as a gas-trap. The same point would, I suggest, apply to non-hydrate derived methane i.e. gas that has remained as gas. What one would likely see in such a scenario would be a strong increase in outgassing, not in one great “burp” at one locality but via multiple pathways up through the defrosted sediment over a wide area.

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The green building market is expected to be worth $135 billion in the next three years, with non-residential activity set to triple. But residential opportunities are growing as well. Here’s a list of some top trends that will help accelerate growth in the residential market, as compiled by the Earth Advantage Institute.

1)      Urban density. Filling in the spaces is the name of the game as homeowners and builders opt to create more living space through the construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs), laneway homes (bordering the back lane behind the main house), and build on infill lots. All this because the younger crowd and the empty nesters are opting to settle in the city where they can be closer to cultural activity, mass transit, more sustainable lifestyles, and other like-minded people.

2)      Green multifamily homes. As a corollary to the urban density trend, Earth Advantage Institute has seen a large spike in Northwest multifamily building certifications this past year. The increased interest by building owners and operators in energy efficiency savings coupled with 2011’s 17% growth in multifamily homes (McGraw-Hill) means that we can expect to see a rise in certifications in this sector, especially in progressive regions.

3)      Energy upgrades start to drive home remodels. Builders and remodelers who are plugged into changing consumer preferences (smaller homes, reduced energy bills) have been able to capitalize on energy upgrade work. They have moved into the energy audit and residential retrofit market by either expanding their service offerings or, in the case of large West Coast remodeler Neil Kelly, creating entirely new service groups. In the Northwest, demand has increased, leading to significant new energy improvement business for these firms. Remodelers see such work as a driver to help bring in more remodel leads.

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by Joceyln Fong, cross-posted from Media Matters

Last night Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly told his viewers that the Obama administration “gave France 1.2 billion” in clean energy funding. It was completely false and something Fox could have avoided with a few minutes of fact-checking. But a chunk of the blame belongs to CBS, which enabled O’Reilly’s misinformation with its own sloppy journalism.

CBS News’ new morning show ran a report on Friday by correspondent Sharyl Attkisson which purported to identify 11 “New Solyndras.” The segment was surprisingly bad, and like so much reporting on clean energy these days, eagerly skipped over the facts in pursuit of a broader narrative. In the report, Attkisson included California solar company SunPower on her list of struggling clean energy companies purportedly risking taxpayer dollars:

ATTKISSON: SunPower landed a $1.2 billion loan guarantee last fall after a French oil company took it over. On its last financial statement, SunPower owed more than it was worth.

Citing CBS, O’Reilly concluded that “the French people got our money,” adding, “We gave France 1.2 billion, because this company went bankrupt and the French guy swooped in … grabbed the company, and went back to Paris with our money”:

In reality, SunPower doesn’t have a federal loan guarantee. NRG Energy acquired the project in question — the California Valley Solar Ranch — from SunPower shortly before the project received the loan guarantee from the Department of Energy. So NRG, not SunPower, is on the hook for the loan. The CVSR project is not considered risky for taxpayers because California utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. already signed a long-term contract to buy the power from the solar plant.

And SunPower did not go bankrupt, as O’Reilly claimed (a minor detail by Fox News standards). The fact that a massive French oil company (Total SA) purchased a majority stake in SunPower “could give SunPower a huge advantage” since “Total can get access to large amounts of capital at lower rates than standalone solar companies,” according to solar analyst Shyam Mehta. In December, Total upped its stake to 66 percent in what was seen as “a vote of confidence” in the solar company.

Jocelyn Fong is a researcher at Media Matters for America. This piece was originally published at Media Matters.

by Zachary Rybarczyk and Stephen Lacey

If we want wind to continue growing, more turbines will need to be placed in our communities and close to our backyards. And that will inevitably cause more social friction.

Wind supporters cannot discount concerns from local residents about noise and visual impact. With proper communication between developers and communities, many of the potential conflicts can be mitigated or avoided.

But there’s a huge difference between concerns of neighbors to wind projects and the faux medical conditions pushed by advocates who claim turbines are a serious threat to human health.

Although no conclusive research has shown that wind farms cause health problems, many anti-wind groups have pushed the idea that “Wind Turbine Syndrome” is a widespread problem – elevating legitimate siting concerns to scare tactics.

A new study released this week by the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection finds that “there is no evidence for a set of health effects…that could be characterized as ‘Wind Turbine Syndrome.’” The supposed health impacts pushed by wind opponents include mental health problems, heart disease and vertigo.

The Department’s Panel was comprised of independent experts in a range of fields associated with the possible health impact of exposure to wind turbines. They explored scientific literature, reports, popular media and public comments and concluded that there was no scientific basis for claims about Wind Turbine Syndrome:

Chart courtesy of Plymouth Daily News

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by RL Miller, cross posted from Daily Kos

The Obama re-election campaign has launched its first advertisement of the 2012 election, responding to an attack ad from the petrochemical billionaire Koch brothers. The Koch’s political front group, Americans For Prosperity, accused Obama of “cronyism” over the Solyndra solar company in a $6 million ad campaign launched this week. Obama’s rapid response, hitting the “secretive oil billionaires” and touting the growing clean-energy economy, is running in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin:

NARRATOR: Secretive oil billionaires attacking President Obama, with ads factcheckers say are “not tethered to the facts.” While independent watchdogs called this president’s record on ethics “unprecedented.” And America’s clean energy industry? 2.7 million jobs and “expanding rapidly.” For the first time in 13 years our dependence on foreign oil is below fifty percent. President Obama kept his promise to toughen ethics rules and strengthen America’s energy economy.

Watch it:

Interestingly, the re-election campaign has chosen to describe Obama’s energy record in a way that explicitly ignores the existence of climate change. New fuel economy standards that are designed to fight greenhouse gases are described only in terms of how they reduce oil consumption. Clean energy investments are promoted as job creators. Using oil and gas industry language, the Obama campaign touts the administration’s record on “domestic energy production,” promoting the surge in oil and natural gas drilling during his presidency.

Here’s a round-up of some the latest opinion and reporting on yesterday’s rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Bill McKibben, the man who crushed the Keystone XL pipeline

On November 6, 2011, Bill McKibben arrived at Washington, D.C.’s, Lafayette Park to protest the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, designed to carry oil 1,700 miles from Alberta, Canada, to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. McKibben, a Vermont writer and environmentalist, had been one of 1,252 people arrested in front of the White House in August and September, protesting the same pipeline. He’d spent two nights in the district’s Central Cell Block, and now was back with thousands more people and a bold new plan.

“We can’t literally occupy the White House,” McKibben had told his fellow protesters, “so the next best thing is to surround it.” And that’s what they would do, encircle the White House in a “giant hug” to remind President Obama of his campaign promise to “end the tyranny of oil.” McKibben wasn’t sure how many people he would need to “hug” the White House, though, and was worried that he wouldn’t have enough.

It turns out he had plenty. At least 12,000, actually, making it the largest protest ever for an environmental cause outside the White House. The protesters circled the White House several times and in some places stood five deep. Speaking to the crowd, McKibben seemed pleasantly surprised that so many people had actually showed up. “We have been wondering if anybody was going to come,” he told them, perhaps a bit too honestly. “It’s been decades since there’s been a crowd like this outside the White House about something to do with the environment. So you have done a great thing today.”

Rejecting Pipeline Proposal, Obama Blames Congress

President Obama on Wednesday rejected, for now, the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline, saying the $7 billion project could not be adequately reviewed within the 60-day deadline set by Congress. While the president’s action does not preclude later approval of the project, it sets up a baldly partisan fight over energy, jobs and regulation that will most likely persist through the November election.

The president said his hand had been forced by Republicans in Congress, who inserted a provision in the temporary payroll tax cut bill passed in December giving the administration only until Feb. 21 to decide the fate of the 1,700-mile pipeline, which would stretch from oil sands formations in Alberta to refineries on the Gulf Coast.

The State Department, which has authority over the project because it crosses an international border, said there was not enough time to draw a new route for the pipeline and assess the potential environmental harm to sensitive grasslands and aquifers along its path. The agency recommended that the permit be denied, and Mr. Obama concurred.

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