I’m seeking reader input to the headline question.

Rich countries like the U.S. need to cut CO2 emissions more than 80% by 2050 to have a serious shot at the 2°C (3.6° F) target climate scientists say is needed to avoid the most dangerous climate impacts and potentially irreversible tipping points (see “Study Confirms Optimal Climate Strategy: Deploy, Deploy, Deploy, Research and Develop, Deploy, Deploy, Deploy“).  Here’s the key chart from the IPCC’s full Working Group III report (Box 13.7, page 776):

I’d like to put together a picture of the U.S. in 2050 if we met the target — but just the “modest” target  from the 2009 climate and clean energy jobs bill of an 80% reduction compared to 2005 levels.

Certain questions need answering.   How much total energy is consumed in 2050, which is to say how much energy efficiency and conservation has been achieved — they aren’t the same thing.  Certainly by 2030 (if not sooner), we’re going to be quite desperate to avert Dust-Bowlification and irreversible loss of the great ice sheets, so in the 2030s and 2040s one can imagine a considerable amount of conservation and dematerialization separate from the technologically-driven energy efficiency that is possible.  [No, I'm not interested in scenarios of economic/societal collapse.  That's avoidable if we act, but it is certainly in play if we don't.]

How much coal, oil, and natural gas is being consumed (with carbon capture and storage of some coal and gas if you want to consider that)?  What’s the price of oil?  How much of our power is provided by nuclear power?  How much by solar PV and how much by concentrated solar thermal?  How much from wind power?  How much from biomass?  How much from other forms of renewable energy?

What is the vehicle fleet like?   How much electric?  How much next-generation biofuels?  What about the rest of transportation, including air travel?  If  you want to waste time throwing in some hydrogen cars, I suppose that is your right, but it remains too expensive and implausible to be a major, cost-effective carbon-saver even in 2050.

Please, also, feel free to identify links to analyses that have already done part or all of this.  Again, I’m just looking for the U.S. energy mix.

A national competition for K-12 students is driving positive change in energy habits.

by Zachary Rybarczyk

K-12 schools in America spend over $8 billion a year on energy. So they’re the perfect place to save money by implementing efficiency, conservation and green building techniques — all while educating students about energy issues.

A competition organized by the Green Schools Alliance aims to help facilitate that transition.

Across the U.S., students of all ages from kindergarten to high school are competing in the Green Cup Challenge, a four-week event that encourages schools to cut energy use. Three weeks into the event, one school has cut its electricity consumption by 17% through simple changes in behavior.

This is the fifth year of the Green Cup Challenge, which pits 116 public and private schools in 22 states against one another, tracking energy consumption during a four-week period from January 18 through February 15. The competition shows students how small tweaks in energy consumption can make a big difference.

So far the leading school, the New Roads School of Santa Monica, California, has reduced its total energy use over a three week period by 17%, through changes to thermostats, shutting off computer monitors and lamps, installing skylights, and using timers on lighting systems.

“It’s about creating habits,” said one student participating in the challenge.

Other schools have used the Green Cup Challenge to promote investments in renewable energy and efficiency projects that may have not been possible without the support of the Green Schools Alliance.

After installing a number of energy efficient technologies, including a solar PV system, a “bird-friendly” wind turbine, green roofs, and changing other energy habits, the Latin School of Chicago has seen a savings of $45,000 a year on their energy bills, and is expected to pay off its initial investment in less than 10 years.

These are just two examples among thousands. With a network of over 3,000 public and private schools (including their 2 million students) in 40 US states and 11 countries, GSA has a unique opportunity to create real change in the green movement.

A cyber-penny for your thoughts.

The full week of Doonesbury myFACTS starts here.