by Andrew Freedman, via Climate Central

As the people of Duluth, Minn. — a community of about 86,000 tucked away at the southwest corner of Lake Superior — try to recover from the record flooding of the past week, it’s reasonable for them to ask whether global warming may have played a role in the floodwaters that so heavily damaged their city.

Given the unusual nature of the rainfall, and the prevalence of extreme weather in Minnesota and other states so far this year and during recent decades, the answer, according to the scientific evidence, is “maybe.” (That the jury is still out is reason enough for concern.).

Here are some of the facts regarding the unprecedented and devastating flooding event that took place this week in Duluth. A cold front sparked slow-moving thunderstorms that repeatedly moved over the Duluth area between June 17-19, dumping between 8 and 10 inches of rain in a 24-to 36-hour period on Duluth and neighboring communities in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

An all-time record 24-hour rainfall was set in Duluth, with 7.24 inches of rain falling during that period. The rainfall came during an already wet month in Minnesota, as the state rapidly lurched from drought conditions during the spring to suddenly having a precipitation surplus.

The rainfall washed out numerous roads in the Duluth metro area and nearby counties, and a state of emergency was declared in the city. The heavy rains caused rapid increases in the levels of local rivers and creeks. The St. Louis River at Scanlon, Minn., crested at an all-time record high of 16.62 feet on June 21, up from 5.5 feet just two days prior.

In other words, this was not your ordinary heavy downpour, and the flooding the rains caused were not your typical floods, either. It’s likely that the flooding will go down as among the most destructive in Duluth’s history.

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index, showing an increase in 1-day precipitation extremes in recent years across the Lower-48 states. Credit: NCDC.

It’s been well documented that global warming is already contributing to an increase in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events across large parts of the globe. A 2008 report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program found that there has been a 31 percent increase in very heavy precipitation events from 1958 through 2007 in the Upper Midwest.

As Paul Huttner of Minnesota Public Radio wrote: “What we can credibly say and support with facts is that events like the Great Duluth Flood of 2012 ‘fit’ within the overall pattern of climate changes we’re observing in Minnesota.”

Some recent studies that have assessed global warming’s relative contribution to specific extreme precipitation events have shown that by putting more moisture into the air, global warming made them more likely to occur.

Given the studies showing changes already occurring in the planet’s water cycle as a result of global warming, it’s quite possible that global warming aided and abetted the extreme rainfall event such as the one that occurred in Duluth by making more moisture available for the thunderstorms to wring out of the air as heavy rainfall.

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by RL Miller, via Daily Kos

A dinosaur backed into a corner by a pack of smaller dinosaurs may be mortally wounded, but it’s big and angry enough to do some serious damage in its death throes. The coal industry, long accustomed to being the Tyrannosaurus Rex of American politics, is on the ropes, battered by forces outside its control, but angry enough to damage people while it searches for an escape route.

Long term use of coal in the US is declining: “The share of U.S. electricity that comes from coal is forecast to fall below 40% for the year, its lowest level since World War II. Four years ago, it was 50%. By the end of this decade, it is likely to be near 30%.”

Coal’s decline is widely attributed to three reasons, which I’ve cleverly named EPA — Environmental Protection Agency, Price, Activists. One is far less important than the other two.

Congressional Republicans blame the EPA, but every time I’ve looked at “EPA regulations force this coal plant shutdown” cries, I’ve found a decrepit old plant shut down most months because maintenance costs are too high. EPA regulations are a relatively minor factor in coal plant shutdowns.

Most business analysts attribute coal’s fall to price. Coal’s price in the United States has stayed fairly stable, but prices of alternatives have plummeted. Natgas is at $2.50/MBTU – it was $9-10 during Bush years. Utilities are actively planning to replace older coal fired plants to natural gas. Things are so bad for Old King Coal that it’s fighting with two of its usual strong allies.

The electric utilities, formerly joined at the hip with coal, are now bailing on coal:

many now recognize that expending the political capital to fight for plants built in the middle of last century is not worth it — especially when they can construct combined cycle natural gas facilities with relative regulatory ease while releasing roughly half of the emissions in the meantime.

A perfect storm is pulling the coal sector under:

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