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CNN Bans Term ‘Frankenstorm’, But It’s A Good Metaphor For Warming-Driven Monster: ‘Largest Hurricane In Atlantic History’

UPDATE from Stu Ostro, Weather Channel Senior Meteorologist: “History is being written as an extreme weather event continues to unfold, one which will occupy a place in the annals of weather history as one of the most extraordinary to have affected the United States.

What would you call an “unprecedented and bizarre“ storm that is:

  • The “largest hurricane in Atlantic history measured by diameter of gale force winds (1,040mi)” [Capital Weather Gang]
  • “A Storm Like No Other” [National Weather Service via AP]. NWS“I cannot recall ever seeing model forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so high for so long a time. We are breaking new ground here.”
  • “A meteorologically mind-boggling combination of ingredients [] coming together: one of the largest expanses of tropical storm (gale) force winds on record with a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic or for that matter anywhere else in the world; a track of the center making a sharp left turn in direction of movement toward New Jersey in a way that is unprecedented in the historical database, as it gets blocked from moving out to sea by a pattern that includes an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure aloft near Greenland; a “warm-core” tropical cyclone embedded within a larger, nor’easter-like circulation; and eventually tropical moisture and arctic air combining to produce heavy snow in interior high elevations. This is an extraordinary situation, and I am not prone to hyperbole.” [Stu Ostro]
  • Being fueled in part by “ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast [] about 5°F above average,” so “there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain” [former Hurricane Hunter Jeff Masters]
  • Also being driven by a high pressure blocking pattern near Greenland “forecast to be three standard deviations from the average” [Climate Central and CWG]
  • “Stitched together from some spooky combination of the natural and the unnatural.” [Bill McKibben]

McKibben explains “Our relationship to the world around us is shifting as fast as that world is shifting. ‘Frankenstorm’ is the right name for Sandy, and indeed for many other storms and droughts and heat waves now.”

CBS News offered another coincidental reason for the name in its headline, “Hurricane Sandy may slam into U.S. East Coast as Halloween week ‘Frankenstorm’.”

Readers of my book, “Language Intelligence: Lessons on Persuasion from Jesus, Shakespeare, Lincoln, and Lady Gaga,” know the unique power of metaphors. As one review article put it, “Studies reveal that virtually all of our abstract conceptualization and reasoning is structured by metaphor.”

Frankenstein — and his monster — have become a metaphor for the unintentional consequences of scientific and technological advances.

Humans are changing the climate in dangerous and unprecedented ways. At first it was unintentional, but no one in the public arena can possibly claim today they haven’t been warned — repeatedly — by climate scientists and others (see, for instance Lonnie Thompson on why climatologists are speaking out: “Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization.”)

Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained in a must-read 2012 review article in Climatic Change:

The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be….

We can even make a stronger statement today in the case of hurricanes thanks to a brand new study, “Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923

We demonstrate that the major events in our surge index record can be attributed to landfalling tropical cyclones; these events also correspond with the most economically damaging Atlantic cyclones. We find that warm years in general were more active in all cyclone size ranges than cold years. The largest cyclones are most affected by warmer conditions and we detect a statistically significant trend in the frequency of large surge events (roughly corresponding to tropical storm size) since 1923. In particular, we estimate that Katrina-magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years.

The name “Frankenstorm” fits. Ostro says this is “even more extreme” than the infamous Perfect Storm of 1991. The unique severity of the storm is the point! Manmade warming has consequences. The time to act is now.

For those who aren’t regular readers of Climate Progress, here’s more of the literature on how manmade carbon pollution is making many of the most destructive kinds of extreme weather events — Frankenstorms – more frequent and more intense.

UPDATE: Let’s start with a quote from Jennifer Francis of Rutgers (via DotEarth) on the link between Sandy and the record-smashing Arctic sea ice loss:

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Filling The Silence: What Obama and Romney Should Have Said (Had They Been Asked A Climate Question At The Debates)

by David Minkow, via Climate Access

It’s hard to take, frankly. Another presidential debate and no mention of the most important, and most pressing, issue of all. The glaring omission of climate disruption from the presidential campaign represents an escape from reality (anyone else think it’s telling that the final debate was scheduled to coincide with Monday Night Football and the MLB playoffs?) and a lost opportunity that history will judge harshly.

We need presidential leadership on the issue, and I think it’s worth considering not just what the candidates would have said if a debate moderator had found time to ask a climate question, but what they could and should have said. I offer the following as an escape to reality:

“Thank you, Jim/Candy/Bob, very much for asking about where we stand on the issue of climate change. How we answer this question will have a great deal to do with how we will fare with the other challenges raised in these debates.

It is an extraordinary time to be alive. We have the ability to travel across the globe in a single day. We can communicate with the entire world from the palm of our hand. And we have the knowledge of just how marvelous the planet we inhabit is and how interconnected, and thus fragile, it all is.

Our lives and prosperity depend upon a stable climate. We are able to grow abundant food, drink fresh water and develop as a civilization because our planet features relatively consistent weather patterns. So, as the scientists have been telling us for quite a while now, it’s a big problem that our climate is becoming less and less stable. In the last few years, we’ve had more extreme weather events than ever in our history, costing America more than ever to deal with the consequences. And as you may have noticed, our weather is not what it used to be, from ponds no longer freezing each winter to planting and harvesting times out of whack.

What’s driving these changes and extreme weather events is climate disruption. There is overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is driving the disruption to our climate and that our nation, sadly, is one of the major drivers. And it is abundantly clear that climate disruption will get exponentially worse if we don’t do anything about it.

Beyond what the scientists say, we are starting to see the impacts of climate disruption with our own eyes in our communities. At the same time, for those forward-thinking places that are starting to address climate impacts by investing in the clean energy economy, and preparing for more extreme weather events, they are starting to see the benefits of their leadership and importance of believing in American ingenuity and innovation.

Investing in renewable energy technologies is creating jobs and providing training opportunities for our young people.  Jobs in clean energy and sustainability are safe, well-paid jobs you can feel proud of. People and businesses are relocating to communities that have invested in modern, efficient transportation systems or are walkable due to forward-thinking planning. Business and communities are saving money and improving quality of life through smart building design and energy efficiency programs.

Right now, there are courageous, committed and far-sighted individuals, businesses, neighborhood groups, faith leaders and local officials throughout America who are working diligently on these and many other solutions and are trying to figure out how to get the rest of us engaged.

But there are folks standing in their way. There are some who would like to see American’s dependence on fossil fuels continue, benefitting the few at the cost to many. They are pouring money into misinformation campaigns run by think tanks and front groups that are designed to distort media coverage, undermine education efforts and attack the credibility of those working on the issue.

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Which U.S. Cities Have The Greenest Commuting Habits?

by Kaid Benfield, via NRDC’s Switchboard

As most readers know only too well, the US pales by comparison to the rest of the world when it comes to getting around by anything other than single-occupancy cars.  Starting in the 1950s, we fell in love with spread-out living and with automobiles in a way that other countries didn’t, at least not to the same degree.  (Even Canadians and Australians don’t drive as much as we do.)  We soon simply (and wrongly) assumed that everyone could and should drive to do most anything, and built our suburbs accordingly, guaranteeing that the trend would perpetuate.

Slowly but surely, the trend is now beginning to reverse as the hot markets are in downtowns and walkable neighborhoods, with the ones having good transit service commanding the highest premiums on a per-square-foot basis.  But we have a long, long way to go.

(Disclosure:  As my enviro colleagues know, I am not a purist on these matters.  I have a very nice car, thank you very much, and I happen to love it.  But I am also fortunate to live somewhere that allows me to leave it parked much of the time.  I get to choose when to drive; most Americans don’t have that choice, unfortunately.  Yet.)

As pathetic as we are when it comes to our lack of realistic transportation choices – we’ve built and grown our newer communities in a way that makes transit ridiculously inefficient and walking anywhere important just about impossible – some US metro areas perform much better than others in enabling greener travel habits.  Which ones?  Glad you asked.

Last month, Aaron Renn, a city analyst best known for his terrific blog Urbanophile, published a highly informative summary of the newest commuting data in the online journal newgeography.  While it focuses on trips to and from work and not all trips, Aaron’s summary gives us a pretty good picture of how we get around and to what extent our daily transportation habits may be changing.  It contains both good and bad news for people such as myself who would like to see our patterns become greener as quickly as possible.

Aaron’s analysis is based on 2011 data from the American Community Survey, a product of the US Census Bureau.  I’ll hit the highlights here, and you can go to the article for more detail.

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A Test Drive For The Sustainable Ski Industry Model

Photo: Mount Abram

by Bob Berwyn, via Summit County Citizens Voice

The Mountain Rider’s Alliance vision for a sustainable ski industry is about to grow some flesh and bones, as the grassroots group partners with a well-known engineering firm to develop specific plans for carbon-neutral, net-zero-energy ski areas.

The partnership between MRA and the Brendle Group with forge toward a new model for sustainability in the ski industry, focused on alternative business models for small and medium-sized resorts.

For starters, the Brendle Group will develop and test a model for sustainability at Mt. Abram that can be replicated elsewhere, starting with comprehensive assessments of energy use, land use, procurement, and community sustainability to identify options for net zero carbon, energy, and water operations as well as integrating sustainability and local economic development.

“We are extremely excited to be partnering with such an outstanding organization that has been a longstanding leader in ski industry sustainability,” said MRA chief Jamie Schectman.

“By partnering with MRA, we have the exciting opportunity to help advance MRA’s Mountain Playground vision while bringing our newest services in net zero water, ecosystems services, and sustainable economic development to the ski industry,” said Brendle Group president Judy Dorsey.

The Fort Collins-based company has a long and successful track record of working with a variety of companies, municipalities and other entities, including the ski industry.

Dorsey said her firm helped the National Ski Areas Association develop its Sustainable Slopes program and, more recently, the Ski Areas Climate Challenge.

Around Colorado, the company helped Steamboat Springs develop a sustainability management plan and has also worked with water districts, the National Park Service and Xcel Energy on sustainability issues.

At Mt, Abrams, winner of last year’s Golden Eagle ski industry sustainability award, the initial legwork will focus on utilities analyses and then move on with assessments and forecasts of energy and water use.

“Based on those studies, we can show them, here’s what it would take to get to net-zero,” Dorsey said, adding that Mt. Abrams already has a leg up.

The Maine ski area has already taken some significant steps toward a sustainable future, including the planned installation of a large solar energy array.

Of course, the concept of sustainability isn’t completely new ground for the ski industry. Resorts large and small have taken numerous steps toward a more sustainable future during the past decade or so. Vail Resorts, for example, has made significant progress in cutting its overall energy use, but there’s plenty of room for improvement.

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