UPDATE (9:22 EDT): CNN’s meteorologist just said: “There’s no one that’s not 300 years old that has seen anything like this.”

“Atlantic City is under water. The boardwalk is in the street.” via @MikeStacks609

Disaster modeling company Eqecat projected today that “Hurricane Sandy is likely to cause insured losses of $5 billion to $10 billion and economic losses of $10 billion to $20 billion.” If it hits $20 billion, it would be among the top 5 costliest U.S. hurricanes — and the costliest one to hit the Northeast.

The final storm track has made the too-aptly named Atlantic City ground zero for Sandy. CNN Weather Center tweets:

NEW #RECORD daily rainfall set at Atlantic City, NJ! 4.55″ of rain seen so far, shattering the old record of 2.33″ set back in 1908!! #SANDY

The New York Times reports:

“The city is under siege,” said Thomas Foley, [AC's] chief of emergency services. “Sandy is pretty furious at Atlantic City. She must have lost a bet or something. As we say in our slogan, ‘Do A.C.’ She’s doing A.C., all right.”

Or something! (see “Trenberth: Hurricane Sandy Mixes Super-Storm Conditions With Climate Change” and links below).

Weather Underground reported in its twitter feed today:

Atlantic City recorded a pressure of 959 mb at 4 pm, setting the city’s record for lowest pressure on record.

Twitter is definitely the place for finding the latest updates. The all-time record was 960.7 mb — and The Weather Channel’s Hurricane Central feed reported a few hours later:

Atlantic City down to 953.9 mb (28.17″) pressure and still plummeting.

TWC also tweets:

Barometric pressure in #Philly now 28.39″; this breaks their all-time low pressure record of 28.43″ set in March ’93 superstorm

In fact, the record was set today for the lowest pressure ever recorded for a hurricane north of the Carolinas!

New York City is also slammed. TWC tweets:

The water level at the Battery in #NYC has reached 11.25 feet, surpassing the all-time record of 11.2 feet set in 1821.

Eric Holthaus tweeted for his Wall Street Journal weather feed:

NYSE closure tomorrow will mark first time the market closes FOR WEATHER on consecutive days since 1888.

The WSJ blog has reported, “NYC Subways Could Be Crippled for Days“:

Floodwaters rushed through Lower Manhattan on Monday night, inundating subway and automotive tunnels and likely forcing a prolonged shutdown of New York City’s mass-transit system. No clear estimate was available, and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority did not provide a timetable for reopening the subways. But the extent of flooding and the height of the storm surge appeared likely to meet or exceed the level of a 1992 nor’easter….

Jon Passantino tweets:

Wow: Floodwaters inundate Ground Zero construction site in NYC (via AP) pic.twitter.com/hiJFeHJW

Meanwhile, the Washington Post Weather Gang posted:

How historic would the amount of rain forecast be? Weather Decisions Technology (WDT) has prepared an analysis shown below. Its model projects Sandy to be a 500-to-1,000 year precipation event for some parts of the Mid-Atlantic with a 100-250 year precipitation event for broader areas….

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Hurricane Sandy’s assault on the Eastern United States should remind us that this could happen again. We rightly grieve for the storm’s victims and, if past is prologue, will generously contribute to helping them get back on their feet. This very American concern for suffering can also be motivator for working to prevent these sorts of storms in the future — that is, working to limit change as quickly as possible.

Unchecked climate change will almost certainly result in more intense tropical storms and hurricanes — and rising seas – a combination that will be particularly deadly in these three places:

1. Bangladesh. Bangladesh was the site of the most deadly tropical cyclone in recorded history, Cyclone Bhola, which killed at least 500,000 people in 1970 despite only reaching Category Three strength. The country is so vulnerable to hurricanes as a consequence of its low, flat topography, relative poverty, and proximity to the ocean, which combine to produce devastating hurricane floods and limited ability to effectively prepare for them. Climate change, according to one model, is likely to increase the country’s vulnerable region by 67 percent by 2050, putting 9.1 million more people at risk from devastating floods and causing an estimated $5.5 billion in damages.

2. Indonesia. A recent study found that Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, is the most sensitive — defined as “would be most destructive to its country if hit” — city in Southeast Asia to climate-change induced storms. That outpaces anywhere in Bangladesh, as Jakarta has an an enormous population and is responsible for 20 percent of Indonesian GDP, meaning that a significant storm hitting the capital could cause immense damage. Indeed, the island country as a whole is quite vulnerable to extreme weather and flooding, as the horrific 2004 tsunami proved. A 2010 retread was far less destructive, but suggested the country was still vulnerable to extreme weather.

3. Haiti. A 2008 hurricane killed hundreds and destroyed 60 percent of the crops in the extremely poor Caribbean country, underscoring the already hurricane-prone country’s vulnerability to climate change-induced storms. And the effects of severe storms on the country could be more long-term than generally thought. According to Madeleine Rubinstein, the Research Coordinator for the Columbia University Climate Center, “More frequent and more intense storms and rainfalls could harm Haiti’s food supply, as serious erosion and poor soil health lead to decreased livestock and crop productivity.”

These three countries are the tip of the iceberg. A recent study by the consulting group Maplecroft found that 30 countries were at “extreme risk” from the environmental consequences of climate change. For this reason, Harvard economist Dani Rodrik believes that reducing carbon emissions is one of the most effective avenues for addressing global poverty available to Western policymakers.

Related Post:

• How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

by Brad Johnson

Will the Frankenstorm be the moment that galvanizes Americans to recognize climate change as an urgent threat to our economic and national security?

Only if the leaders of the Democratic and Republican parties end their silence when climate disasters strike.

The silence of our leaders in both parties on global warming amid billion-dollar disasters is a key reason the American people are not better mobilized to address the threat. Even as communities across the nation work at the local level to build climate resilience, even as American voters connect the dots between the disasters they’ve faced and carbon pollution, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have missed repeated opportunities to provide leadership over the course of the presidential campaign.

Below are the candidates’ responses to four different billion-dollar climate disasters during the campaign season:

August 2011: Hurricane Irene. Obama delivers a statement on Hurricane Irene at the White House and addresses victims in Paterson, NJ, but does not mention that the storm’s impact was intensified by oceanic warming, sea level rise, greater atmospheric vapor, and increased extreme precipitation in the Northeast connected to global warming.

Romney cancels fundraisers in Martha’s Vineyard, South Hampton, and East Hampton, two days after telling voters, “I can’t tell you how much of the warming I think we’re experiencing is caused by human beings. It may be a lot. It may be a little.”

June 2012: Colorado Wildfires. Obama announces an “all-hands-on-deck” response in his weekly address to the nation from Colorado Springs, after visiting the devastating wildfires, but does not mention the role climate change had in fueling the fires, including higher temperatures, more intense drought, and bark beetle infestations.

A week later, Romney visits the wildfires, and recommends that Americans help the victims by vacationing in Colorado. He does not mention climate change.

August 2012: National Drought. Obama announces an “all-hands-on-deck” response in his weekly address to the nation. He notes that “the month of July was the warmest month on record — warmer than any other month since we began keeping track more than a century ago,” but does not connect that to climate change.

Romney visits Iowa, says he’s “a little concerned about the drought,” and says “we’re looking for more rain.”

In October, Romney jokes about the Iowa drought: “It used to be that there was rainwater in Iowa, and people cared about it – we hope it’s coming back soon.”

September 2012: Hurricane Isaac. Mitt Romney tours damage in Louisiana with Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA), but does not mention climate change.

Obama tours the “enormous devastation” in Louisiana, but does not mention climate change.

Mitt Romney’s climate silence is carbon-fueled. His energy adviser is oil baron Harold Hamm, and his running mate is an anti-science conspiracy theorist, so there’s little chance Romney will connect the dots between this Frankenstorm and greenhouse pollution.

Furthermore, Romney believes that federal disaster relief efforts are “immoral” and should be privatized:

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Michigan is playing host to a major battle over renewable energy this fall. On one side are clean energy proponents promoting a ballot initiative that would increase the state’s renewable electricity targets to 25 percent by 2025. On the other side are large coal-dependent utilities fighting to prevent any new increases.

In the middle are Michigan voters who are getting bombarded with millions of dollars in advertisements from utilities opposed to new renewable energy standards. Even so, a majority of Michiganders say they support new targets that would diversify the state’s electricity mix — stimulating billions of dollars in renewable energy investments while only adding about 50 cents per month to the average residential utility bill.

Backers of Proposal 3 might not have the spending power of the state’s largest utilities. But they now have a major heavy hitter on their side: Bill Clinton.

Former President Clinton — a man well-versed in the benefits of clean energy — has officially put thrown his support behind the 25 percent renewable electricity target.

“Proposal 3 is Michigan’s best opportunity this year to jumpstart the state’s economy by creating 94,000 jobs and increasing the use of renewable energy,” Clinton said in a statement. “Proposal 3 invests in Michigan’s future so that it won’t get left behind by the 30 other states that are already creating new clean energy jobs and lowering consumers’ electricity costs. That’s why I’m so proud to endorse Proposal 3.”

The high-profile endorsement from Clinton comes as a utility front group spends millions of dollars on advertisements to kill the proposal. According to clean energy proponents, the organization fighting Proposal 3 is set to spend $7 million on television and radio ads in the weeks before the November elections.

Michigan gets 59 percent of its electricity from coal. That’s one of the major reasons why Consumers Energy and DTE Energy, the state’s largest utilities, are opposed to new targets. According to a recent economic analysis, the cost of delivering coal to power plants in the state has jumped by 71 percent since 2006. Consumers Energy has projected fuel cost increases to total around $530 million over the next four years — resulting in a 3 percent rate increase each year.

That is also the reason why contracts for renewable electricity are coming in lower than the cost of new coal. In February, the Michigan Public Service Commission issued a progress report of the state’s current renewable electricity standard requiring 10 percent penetration by 2015, finding that the cost of wind, solar, and hydro “is cheaper than a new coal-fired generation” in the state.

In fact, on multiple occasions over the last four years, Consumers Energy reported that the cost of meeting Michigan’s current renewable electricity targets has been far lower than expected. In May, the company reduced its renewable electricity surcharge by 13 cents. It also reduced the surcharge in May of 2011, citing the lower-than-expected cost of meeting targets.

by Mike Tidwell

What might Hurricane Sandy do to New York City? See excerpts below from my 2006 book The Ravaging Tide: Strange Weather, Future Katrinas, and the Coming Death of America’s Coastal Cities. It’s a depressing title meant to help shock us into preventing these worst-case scenarios from coming true via global climate change. But it might now be too late for parts of imperiled New York.

As you read, keep in mind that as of Sunday night October 28th, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting that the storm could hit anywhere between Delaware and Rhode Island, with a surge tide as high as 11 feet in some places. Even if New York City avoids a direct strike, it is still facing a potentially “worst-case scenario” in terms of surge tides.

During his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, Mitt Romney mocked Obama’s pledge to address climate change, turning it into a punch line.

“President Obama promised to slow the rise of the oceans — [bites lip and pauses for audience laughter(!)] — and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family.”

The line came at an odd time, considering that Hurricane Isaac had just hit Tampa and delayed the Republican convention — the second time in a row that a hurricane had disrupted the GOP’s premier political event. Now, with Hurricane Sandy barreling down on the East Coast, potentially creating storm surges more than 10 feet high, those comments seem particularly ironic. Here’s a tweet from 350.org’s Bill McKibben:

Watch the video of Romney’s punch line here:

After Romney’s convention speech, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes said the footage would some day “be in documentaries as a moment of just ‘what-were-they-thinking’ madness.”

by Kevin Trenberth

As I write this, Hurricane Sandy remains a very large, powerful hurricane. On Sunday afternoon (local time), Sandy brought winds gusting to 103km/h to coastal North Carolina. Heavy rains are already occurring from North Carolina to New Jersey with amounts recorded of 4cm so far.

But Sandy is predicted to turn left and move ashore on the Atlantic coast somewhat south of New York and north of Washington DC in a day or so. Rainfalls exceeding 15cm are likely in some areas, but a major risk is from the coastal storm surge on top of very high sea levels made higher by climate change.

A large easterly wind fetch has already piled waters up along the coast, and with high tide and the storm surge, and storm force winds extending a huge 800km plus from the center, the potential for the ocean surges to be over 3m is very real in the New York City area.

The sea surface temperatures along the Atlantic coast have been running at over 3C above normal for a region extending 800km off shore all the way from Florida to Canada. Global warming contributes 0.6C to this. With every degree C, the water holding of the atmosphere goes up 7%, and the moisture provides fuel for the tropical storm, increases its intensity, and magnifies the rainfall by double that amount compared with normal conditions.

Global climate change has contributed to the higher sea surface and ocean temperatures, and a warmer and moister atmosphere, and its effects are in the range of 5 to 10%. Natural variability and weather has provided the perhaps optimal conditions of a hurricane running into extra-tropical conditions to make for a huge intense storm, enhanced by global warming influences.

My daughter lives in a ground level apartment in Hoboken New Jersey, a few hundred meters from the Hudson River, near Manhattan, New York City, in a region where the largest storm surge is predicted. My wife happens to be visiting with her and her family at the moment and as I write this, they are evacuating. They have taken many precautions including especially removing leaves (since it is autumn) from drains and sandbagging certain areas, but risk of flooding and backed up sewage and drains is high. Better safe than sorry.

Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth is a Distinguished Senior Scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This piece was originally published at The Conversation and was reprinted with permission from the author.

NASA has released a video of Hurricane Sandy — a “superstorm” with a 2,000 mile extent — churn in the Atlantic Ocean as it moves toward the East Coast. The time-lapse animation of images taken from NASA’s GOES-14 satellite shows the category 1 hurricane from 22,300 miles above earth.

Stu Ostro, a senior meteorologist with the Weather Channel, put the storm into context:

“History is being written as an extreme weather event continues to unfold, one which will occupy a place in the annals of weather history as one of the most extraordinary to have affected the United States.”

“A meteorologically mind-boggling combination of ingredients is coming together: one of the largest expanses of tropical storm (gale) force winds on record with a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic or for that matter anywhere else in the world; a track of the center making a sharp left turn in direction of movement toward New Jersey in a way that is unprecedented in the historical database, as it gets blocked from moving out to sea by a pattern that includes an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure aloft near Greenland; a “warm-core” tropical cyclone embedded within a larger, nor’easter-like circulation; and moisture from the tropics and cold air from the Arctic combining to produce very heavy snow in interior high elevations. This is an extraordinary situation, and I am not prone to hyperbole.”

Hurricane Sandy is expected to cause billions of dollars in damages and impact 50 million people along the East Coast of the U.S.

A group of climate change activists braved the calm before the storm on Sunday afternoon to rally in New York City’s Times Square. Leading environmental activist organization 350.org organized the event, “Connect the Dots between Extreme Weather and Climate Change,” in less than 48 hours, according to Phil Aroneanu, the group’s co-founder and U.S. campaign director. [Huffington Post]

The city was bracing Monday for an uninvited guest named Sandy. As the she-witch hurricane churned toward the region and threatened potentially historic devastation, New Yorkers hunkered down in their homes and turned off the welcome sign, transforming the bustling metropolis into a transit-free ghost town. [NY Daily News]

Just a week or so before voting day, the convergence of westbound Hurricane Sandy with a eastbound cold front is creating a massive storm, a Frankenstorm even, that is threatening millions of Americans. Weird weather is making yet another appearance in our lives and once again we ask, “Is this climate change?” [National Public Radio]

Storm surges like those accompanying Hurricane Sandy as it churns north are, at their simplest, a function of strong winds driving too much water into too small a space. But other factors, some of which will come into play as this storm approaches the New York area, can combine to make surges higher and more destructive, experts said. [New York Times]

Record heat and extended drought sparked a huge increase in the number and severity of wildfires in South Dakota this year, forcing the state to spend nearly five times what it spent to battle blazes last year. [Rapid City Journal]

As gas power has replaced coal in the US, the excess coal has pushed down prices on world markets, sparking a bonanza for the high-carbon fuel. Last year, coal had its best year in more than four decades, according to the World Coal Association. [Guardian]

Officials in the coastal city of Ningbo, China, promised on Sunday night to halt the expansion of a petrochemical plant after thousands of demonstrators clashed with the police during three days of protests that spotlighted the public’s mounting discontent with industrial pollution. [New York Times]

Shanghai has been experiencing some of its most serious and long-lasting air pollution in months, as well as weather conditions that have contributed to thick clouds and a haze that has grounded some flights and led to vehicular crashes which killed at least one person and injured dozens. [Eastday]