While every major denier blog has seen stagnating or declining traffic, Climate Progress had its best year yet in 2012. Overall, traffic is up 30% to 50% on most days.

The reasons for the growth are clear: The partnership with ThinkProgress and the rapid growth of our following on social media — something the deniers have utterly failed to match. I guess they are anti-social as well as anti-science!

Social media, such as Twitter and Facebook, plus mobile devices, are our most rapidly growing sources of traffic. Social media is particularly effective at disseminating headlines, which are the most important part of any blog post, as I discuss in my book Language Intelligence.

The power of social media is clear from a brief review of our most widely viewed posts, which are inevitably the ones that get the most retweets on Twitter and most “Likes” on Facebook. Climate Progress gets a level of retweets and Likes typically seen on websites with far higher nominal traffic.

Given that 2012 was a very lively presidential election year, it’s no surprise that the top post was:

• Mitt Romney: Federal Disaster Relief For Tornado And Flood Victims Is “Immoral,” “Makes No Sense At All”

That post had more than 100,000 page views — and a remarkable 3570 retweets and 43,000+ likes. The retweets alone mean that the headline probably went to more than 1 million people through Twitter. When you throw in Facebook and search engines, plus the hundreds of reposts and excerpts by news aggregators, I wouldn’t be surprised if that headline was seen by more than 2 million people.

Climate science came in a close second with this post:

• Bombshell: Koch-Funded Study Finds ‘Global Warming Is Real’, ‘On The High End’ And ‘Essentially All’ Due To Carbon Pollution

That piece also had more than 100,000 page views — plus 1735 retweets and more than 8,900 Likes!

Here are the other top posts of the year:

• Meet Paul Ryan: Climate Denier, Conspiracy Theorist, Koch Acolyte (2600 retweets, 10k Likes)
• Koch Industries Warns 45,000 Employees Of ‘Consequences’ If They Don’t Vote For Republicans (24k Likes)
• Vermont Becomes First U.S. State To Ban Fracking
• Nature Publishes My Piece on Dust-Bowlification and the Grave Threat It Poses to Food Security
• A Message From A Republican Meteorologist On Climate Change
• Romney Visits Iowa ‘Farmer’ Who Is Also A Millionaire Real Estate Mogul With A Spaceship House And Personal Car Wash (7k Likes)
• After Documents Show Paul Ryan Secured $20 Million In Stimulus Grants, He Claims ‘I Never Asked For Stimulus’ (3060 retweets, 6.4k Likes)
• ‘Hug The Monster’: Why So Many Climate Scientists Have Stopped Downplaying the Climate Threat
• Hurricane Sandy: The Worst-Case Scenario For New York City Is Unimaginable
• NBC Meteorologist On Record Heat Wave: ‘If We Did Not Have Global Warming, We Wouldn’t See This’

Even that last post, the 12th most viewed Climate Progress post of 2012, had 1330 retweets and 2.9k Likes, and the headline may well have been seen by over one million people!

General Motors had a record-breaking year for fuel-efficient autos in 2012.

The company became the first American auto manufacturer to sell more than one million vehicles with a 30-mpg fuel rating. And due to a surge in demand from Califorina, GM tripled sales of its electric model, the Chevy Volt.

Motor Trend reported on the year end sales figures:

Chevrolet posted the biggest sales gains of any GM brand last year, with total volume up 4.3 percent year-over-year. Several models made enormous leaps in sales volume: the Sonic compact, for instance, finished December up just 4.3 percent, but a strong year helped push the car to a 415-percent overall gain compared to its first year on sale. The Chevrolet Volt, too, saw sales leap 206 percent from just 7671 units in its difficult first year on the market to a respectable 23,461 cars in 2012. Despite a significant drop to just 1293 sales last month, the Colorado small pickup posted an 18.7 percent annual sales gain. And the Equinox crossover enjoyed a 7.5-percent boost to 19,551 December sales and ended the year up 13.1 percent.

The surge in demand for the Volt capped a tumultuous 2012 for electric vehicles. In 2011, manufacturers fell well short of their sales targets. And as criticisms mounted last year, it seemed like automakers had to spend more time defending electric vehicles than actually making them.

As one of the most prominent automakers getting into the electric vehicle market, GM took a lot of heat from conservative politicians, bloggers, and Fox News pundits about its Chevy Volt. The car was called “crappy” and labeled an “exploding Obamamobile” by commentators looking for an opportunity to attack President Obama’s investments in clean technologies.

Tired of the barrage of attacks, former GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz — a Republican who once called climate change “a crock of shit” — lashed out at his fellow conservatives for spreading fear and cracking jokes about the car: “This is an unfortunate, knee-jerk reaction…Folks, it’s pure fiction. Please get it out of your heads,” Lutz said.

Although GM is still below its sales targets for the Volt, the company is promoting its latest sales figures as proof that more Americans want fuel efficient and electric cars.

The average price of gasoline in the U.S. last year was the highest ever recorded, boosting consumer interest in fuel-sipping automobiles. With more fuel-efficient models available from automakers, sales increased substantially — up 13 percent over 2011 sales.

“The U.S. light vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of LMC Automotive, an industry analysis firm, to the Associated Press.

Earlier this year, the Obama Administration finalized new standards that will increase the average fuel efficiency of America’s cars and trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. The Natural Resources Defense Council says those fuel standards could save consumers $68 billion in fuel costs each year after 2030, when the mileage targets have been met.

WeatherNation Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas reviews past year’s amazing string of extreme weather events:

Proof once again that the weather is apolitical:

• A Message From A Republican Meteorologist On Climate Change
• Republican Meterologist To Romney: Top 10 Reasons The GOP Needs To Accept The Climate Reality

by Dana Nuccitelli, via Skeptical Science

There is a new myth circulating in the climate contrarian blogosphere and mainstream media that a figure presented in the “leaked” draft Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report shows that the planet has warmed less than previous IPCC report climate model simulations predicted. 

Tamino at the Open Mind blog and Skeptical Science’s own Alex C have done a nice job refuting this myth.  We prefer not to post material from the draft unpublished IPCC report, so refer to those links if you would like to see the figure in question.

In this post we will evaluate this contrarian claim by comparing the global surface temperature projections from each of the first four IPCC reports to the subsequent observed temperature changes.  We will see what the peer-reviewed scientific literature has to say on the subject, and show that not only have the IPCC surface temperature projections been remarkably accurate, but they have also performed much better than predictions made by climate contrarians (Figure 1).

Figure 1: IPCC temperature projections (red, pink, orange, green) and contrarian projections (blue and purple) vs. observed surface temperature changes (average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4; black and red) for 1990 through 2012.

1990 IPCC FAR

The IPCC  First Assessment Report (FAR) was published in 1990.  The FAR used simple global climate models to estimate changes in the global mean surface air temperature under various CO2 emissions scenarios.  Details about the climate models used by the IPCC are provided in Chapter 6.6 of the report.

The IPCC FAR ran simulations using various emissions scenarios and climate models. The emissions scenarios included business as usual (BAU) and three other scenarios (B, C, D) in which global human greenhouse gas emissions began slowing in the year 2000.  The FAR’s projected BAU greenhouse gas (GHG) radiative forcing (global heat imbalance) in 2010 was approximately 3.5 Watts per square meter (W/m2).  In the B, C, D scenarios, the  projected 2011 forcing was nearly 3 W/m2.  The actual GHG radiative forcing in 2011 was approximately 2.8 W/m2, so to this point, we’re actually closer to the IPCC FAR’s lower emissions scenarios.

As shown in Figure 2, the IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) corresponding to 1.5°C (low), 2.5°C (best), and 4.5°C (high).  However, because climate scientists at the time believed a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would cause a larger global heat imbalance than today’s estimates, the actual climate sensitivities were approximately 18% lower (for example, the ‘Best’ model sensitivity was actually closer to 2.1°C for doubled CO2).

Figure 2: IPCC FAR projected global warming in the BAU emissions scenario using climate models with equilibrium climate sensitivities of 1.3°C (low), 2.1°C (best), and 3.8°C (high) for doubled atmospheric CO2

Figure 3 accounts for the lower observed GHG emissions than in the IPCC BAU projection, and compares its ‘Best’ adjusted projection with the observed global surface warming since 1990.

Figure 3: IPCC FAR BAU global surface temperature projection adjusted to reflect observed GHG radiative forcings 1990-2011 (blue) vs. observed surface temperature changes (average of NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4; red) for 1990 through 2012.

FAR Scorecard

Read more

What does America’s second-largest oil company think about how to deal with global warming? Why, exploit more carbon-intensive resources, of course.

When questioned about the need to address global warming in an interview with the Associated Press, Chevron CEO John Watson said he believes the only path to global prosperity is more “oil, gas, and coal.”

Watson also said that it’s up to government leaders to find “a better solution for us” when dealing with emissions — not the companies responsible for emitting the carbon pollution heating the planet:

AP: Do fossil fuel producers bear the responsibility for curbing greenhouse gas emissions?

WATSON: We have the responsibility to deliver our energy in an environmentally sound fashion. The greatest advancements in living standards in recorded history have taken place in the modern hydrocarbon era. I don’t think that’s coincidental. Our leaders have to make a decision. Do they want that to continue or do they have a better solution for us? So it’s not my call.

AP: How should society go about reducing greenhouse gas emissions?

WATSON: If you look around the world, the countries with the best environmental practices are the wealthiest. There’s a reason for that. If you’re worried about where your next meal is going to come from or shelter over your head, your focus is on those things.

AP: The U.S. is a wealthy country, how should we reduce emissions?

WATSON: Well, we are a wealthy country. On the other hand, the economy is growing slowly. We have high unemployment. I think that’s part of the reason why the president said now is not the time for a carbon tax, because he recognized that that would put pressure on the economy and put pressure on our energy prices, put pressure on manufacturing business, put pressure on consumers.

AP: When it’s time to address the carbon issue, how should we do it?

WATSON: It’s very difficult for the United States to go it alone. Watch what (other) governments do. The day-to-day decisions being made (show) that concern about climate change is less than other concerns that they have. China is racing by the U.S. in greenhouse gas emissions. Germany is shutting down their nuclear power, the only energy source with zero carbon emissions that can be produced at scale. Japan, much the same way. Governments around the world are making the choice that the benefits of lifting people out of squalor are very important. And affordable energy is the way to get there. And that currently comes through oil, gas and coal.

Naturally, developing more fossil fuels is the solution according to Chevron, the eighth-largest oil company in the world. And developing climate solutions is apparently the responsibility of others.

The view from more impartial observers is remarkably different.

One of the world’s most respected energy institutions, the International Energy Agency, has warned that roughly two-thirds of the world’s carbon reserves must stay underground in order to prevent disastrous global warming.

Even the World Bank — historically a major financial backer of fossil fuel projects around the world — agrees that the world is on a path toward “extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise” without immediate decarbonization.

The accounting firm PricewaterhouseCooper estimates we would need to quadruple our rate of divestment from fossil fuels through 2050 in order to avoid such a grim warming scenario, warning “we have passed a critical threshold.”

That’s why environmental activists have rolled out a new fossil fuel divestment campaign in order to directly target companies like Chevron that are avoiding responsibility for climate change.

During his farewell speech Tuesday, outgoing House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA) listed climate change as a top problem facing the country — a rare moment when a Republican leader in office openly acknowledged the need for climate action.

Taking to the House floor, Dreier said climate change “is a fact of life” that must be confronted, and said it should be an imperative on par with the economy and gun control for his party:

DREIER: Now, Mr. Speaker, we know it’s far from perfect, but I hope that this bipartisan agreement can lay the foundation for continued work to address the tremendous challenges that we face as a Nation. Millions of Americans are out of work. The national debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is too high. Upheaval exists in nearly every region across the globe. Education and immigration reform must happen. The potential for a crippling cyberattack continues to be a threat. Climate change is a fact of life. And most recently, Mr. Speaker, our families are reeling from the tragedy of Newtown.

Though Dreier has had a poor voting record on climate issues, his congressional climate denier colleagues often still need reminder of the basic science.

President Obama also mentioned climate change on Tuesday in the context of the fiscal cliff. During remarks on the last-minute deal, Obama named his administration’s next priorities, which included “protecting our planet from the harmful effects of climate change.”

Amid vociferous criticism from both the right and the left, House Speaker John Boehner is agreeing to hold a vote this week for a bill providing relief for states hit by superstorm Sandy, though the measure — the first of two — will represent only a fraction of the larger $60 billion package. [CBS]

MidAmerican Energy is buying two solar power projects under construction in Southern California from SunPower Corp. that will generate 579 megawatts of electricity. [Associated Press]

Delays in Exxon Mobil Corp.’s response to a major pipeline break beneath Montana’s Yellowstone River made an oil spill far worse than it otherwise would have been, federal regulators said in a new report. [Huffington Post]

The one-year extension of a U.S. tax credit for wind power includes modified terms that may revive an industry that’s expected to stall this year. [Bloomberg]

Despite getting some big storms last month, much of the U.S. is still desperate for relief from the nation’s longest dry spell in decades. And experts say it will take an absurd amount of snow to ease the woes of farmers and ranchers. [Associated Press]

An agreement by almost 200 nations to curb rising greenhouse gas emissions from 2020 will be far more costly than taking action now to tackle climate change, according to research published on Wednesday. [Reuters]

Two aircraft have flown over an oil drilling ship that ran aground in a severe Alaskan storm and saw no sign that the vessel was leaking fuel or that its hull had been breached. [Guardian]

As part of fiscal cliff legislation passed Tuesday, pre-tax benefits for transit are now on par with parking benefits. Individuals who get commuter benefits from their employers can now look forward to (about) $240 a month. [Transportation Nation]

Sales of electric cars are on the rise in the United Kingdom, with one expert suggesting that sales will go up by as much as 100 percent in 2013. [Digital Trends]