Summary of scientific findings

Rate of Temperature Change in the United States, 1901-2008. This figure shows how average air temperatures have changed in different parts of the United States since the early 20th century (since 1901 for the lower 48 states, 1905 for Hawaii, and 1918 for Alaska). Source: U.S. EPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States [PDF], April 2010.

Nick Sundt at WWF’s climate blog has put together a nice summary of the findings of the EPA’s new US Climate Change Indicators Report (with links to the key PDFs), which I repost below:

Read more

All-electric Chinese car headed to U.S. market

The first Chinese-made car to hit the U.S. market might be an all-electric minivan that bypasses gasoline technology altogether and could be a harbinger of the auto industry’s new era.

Read more

Map of China’s major overseas oil deals

China’s oil demand is projected to grow by 80 percent between 2010 and 2030 due to its rapidly developing economy and in particular its growing middle class and exploding auto market.

CAP has a new map out showing where China is securing oil rights around the world.

Read more

As the Senate dithers on clean energy reform, every branch of the government — Congress, the Obama administration, and the courts — is investigating the oil rig explosion off the coast of Louisiana that has killed 11 workers and left three in critical condition. The obliterated hulk of the Deepwater Horizon rig has sunk to the ocean floor, the shattered drilling apparatus now leaking thousands of gallons of oil into the Gulf. Attempts to shut down the leaks by underwater robot have failed, so authorities are considering building an underwater dome and setting the growing oil slick ablaze before it reaches shore. The rig is owned and operated by BP America and Transocean Limited.

Administration officials Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar announced the “the next steps for the investigation that is underway into the causes of the April 20 explosion that left 11 workers missing, three critically injured, and an ongoing oil spill that the responsible party and federal agencies are working to contain and clean up.” There is a joint investigation by the U.S. Coast Guard (under Napolitano) and the Minerals and Mining Service (under Salazar) into the explosion’s death and destruction.

In the House of Representatives, energy committee chair Henry Waxman (D-CA) and oversight subcommittee chair Bart Stupak (D-MI) launched an investigation into “the adequacy of the companies’ risk management and emergency response plans for accidental oil and gas releases at the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig and other offshore deep water or ultra-deep water drilling facilities.” In letters to BP America CEO Lamar McKay and Transocean CEO Steven Newman, the lawmakers cite the “apparent lack
of an adequate plan to contain the spreading environmental damage” and request documents by May 14.

In the Senate, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ), Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) have called for a joint hearing by the Senate commerce and energy committees to oversee the efforts by the federal agencies involved (NOAA, MMS, and the Coast Guard).

A lawsuit has been filed in the federal courts by the wife of one of the victims, charging Transocean, BP America, and Halliburton with negligence. Halliburton “was engaged in cementing operations of the well and well cap,” which may have failed and caused the explosion.

In 2005, an explosion at BP’s Texas City Refinery killed 15 workers. In response to safety violations at that facility, the Occupational Safety & Health Administration levied a record fine of $87 million against BP, which BP promptly challenged in court. Since 2006, there have been 509 fires resulting in at least two fatalities and 12 injuries on rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

No myth: Wind power HAS reduced Denmark’s CO2 emissions a lot

The Washington Post has adopted many strategies to stave off its collapsing circulation.  It has, for instance, gone tabloid, repeatedly publishing falsehood-filled op-eds by Sarah Palin, including one on climate science!

It also strains to print an unconventional “contrarian” analysis ever week in its “5 Myths” series, which is supposedly “a challenge to everything you think you know.”  Of course, lots of what you know is true, and that means the Post has to print lots of stuff that isn’t.

Read more

That’s the banner headline from HuffPost.  Be sure to read their story on how “Big Oil Fought Off New Safety Rules Before Rig Explosion.”  They link to some amazing NASA photos of the “worst oil rig disaster in decades”:

Read more

The process-based and partisan bickering that is derailing the Senate effort to craft climate legislation provides a good opportunity to question why this ugly process is even worthwhile. Politicians seem worried that re-election is more important than policy action, failing to recognize that clean energy reform is actually the key to political success. The mood in Washington’s marble halls and office cubicles is completely disconnected with the sense of urgency and hope found just a few blocks away on the National Mall this Earth Day weekend, in the streets of Detroit, or in the farms of Roscoe, Texas. Business as usual is waging war on America’s working families, with profits for the few and irresponsible coming at the expense of everyone else’s future. Progressive clean energy reform will change the status quo, putting America to work building a stronger, fairer green economy.

Real benefits for real people. The economy of the past, dependent on dirty fuels, puts burdens on real people – harming their health, their children, and their pocketbook. From machinists in Eaton Rapids to entrepreneurs in New Orleans, clean energy reform gives real benefits to real working families from day one, making the air cleaner and the world safer while freeing them from enriching polluters and dictators for their energy needs.

Reward work instead of pollution. The gray energy economy relies on fossil fuels that are “cheap” only because their real costs are hidden. Money flows into low-labor, high-waste energy profiteers even as society is stuck with what the market calls “externalities.” Closing the carbon loophole will get Wall Street to invest in efficiency and renewable energy jobs that can’t be exported, restoring American manufacturing in the 21st century.

Profits with principles. The Bush-Cheney-Gingrich energy scheme is a race to the bottom, as corporations create short-term shareholder and executive profits by corrupting the law and trashing principles of worker safety, public health, and environmental protection. Clean energy reform will allow America to dig out of this toxic hole, rewarding ethical investment instead of crony capitalism.

Give everybody a fair shot at a fair deal. Millions of Americans are ready and able to work hard to care for their families, but unregulated speculators and power merchants have left Main Street in disrepair. From the ashes of the gray economy we have the opportunity to rebuild America right, returning power to communities and giving people willing to work a fair shot at a clean and prosperous future.

Progress is good politics. The destruction of our planet’s climate, with increasing floods, fires, storms, and droughts, threatens the hope of recovery and the fate of our nation. The grip over our political system by polluters who siphon the wealth of working Americans into offshore accounts weakens our economy. The American people have demanded change, and want action. Politicians who have the courage to become leaders in this time of crisis can rekindle our faith in the promise of America.

As President Barack Obama said of “comprehensive energy and climate legislation” today at a wind turbine plant in Fort Madison, IA, “Our security, our economy, and the future of our planet depend on it.”

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has dug itself into quite a  deep hole.  Costs remain very, very high (see Harvard study: “Realistic” first-generation CCS costs a whopping $150 per ton of CO2 “” 20 cents per kWh!).  And nobody wants the CO2 stored underground anywhere near them (see CCS shocker: “German carbon capture plan has ended with CO2 being pumped directly into the atmosphere”).

Now comes a new study in the Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, “Sequestering carbon dioxide in a closed underground volume,” by Christene Ehlig-Economides, professor of energy engineering at Texas A&M, and Michael Economides, professor of chemical engineering at University of Houston.  Here are its blunt findings:

Read more

US & Canada Lose Higher Percentage of Forests Than Brazil

All I can say is wow! Mongabay is highlighting a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences which reveals that between 2000 and 2005 over one million square kilometers of forest were chopped down worldwide, with both the United States and Canada losing a greater percentage of forest than the poster children of tree destruction, Brazil and Indonesia.

Read more

“Fuel prices could easily go through $200 a barrel” in the near future

Late last year, Sir Richard Branson founded a new nonprofit, the Carbon War Room.  The objective of CWR is to “bring together successful entrepreneurs in collaboration with the most respected institutions, scientists, national security experts, and business leaders to implement the change required to avoid catastrophic climate change.”

The Virgin Group founder told Time in December, “There are some of us who believe that the problem of warming is as bad as the First and Second World Wars combined.  It’s that serious, and you know the key is carbon, [but] there’s no war room coordinating the attack on carbon.”

I interviewed the British billionaire at the CWR’s “Creating Climate Wealth” conference last week.  He had some fascinating comments on peak oil, specific measures he is pursuing in his airline business to reduce emissions, and one unexpected ‘benefit’ of his dyslexia:

Read more

Oil company profits underscore need for reform

BP just announced first quarter profits of $5.6 billion, a 135% increase over the first quarter of 20.   This profit was 50% higher than predicted by the Financial Times.

BP owns the oil rig that sunk in the Gulf of Mexico last week, with 11 employees still unaccounted for and presumed dead.  It is also leaking 42,000 gallons of oil per day.  This growing oil slick is expected to hit Louisiana’s fragile coast on Saturday.

CAP’s Daniel J. Weiss and Susan Lyon have the whole story on Big Oil’s big profits in this repost.

Read more

If Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) bolts the Senate climate coalition, it must be time to turn to the “energy only” bill that centrist Democrats have been promoting as a bipartisan alternative to a climate bill, right?

Not so fast…. It is almost as difficult to add up 60 votes in the Senate for the energy-only approach as it is to find 60 votes for a climate bill.

“The energy bill is not popular with either side,” said Robert Dillon, spokesman for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), top Republican on the energy committee.

That’s the NY Times (reprinting a Greenwire piece) on the “Bingaman bill,” which passed the Energy and Natural Resources Committee chaired Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) last year.  Graham’s active support for a comprehensive climate and clean energy jobs bill now in question, but based on my discussions with staffers and wonks, the notion that an energy-only bill is more politically tenable is quite dubious.

The Bingraman bill “does have bipartisan support. But it also has bipartisan opposition, and that opposition has only gotten stronger in the intervening months”:

Read more

Senate staffer: Graham’s been “completely genuine” in bipartisan negotiations for climate and clean energy jobs bill

If email, comments on CP, and some eco-bloggers are to be believed, conservative Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been planning to walk on the climate bill for a long time — perhaps, nefariously, from the very beginning!  And I certainly understand where that sentiment is coming from, given that the GOP strategy on health care and financial reform has been to feign interest and then bolt.

In fact, however, that view lacks plausibility, as The New Republic‘s Jonathan Chait explained in his Sunday column, “Lindsey Graham Is Right.”  Indeed, the WashPost‘s Ezra Klein argues today that Graham, “is not only right to be annoyed, but as far I can tell, is actually right.”

Read more

Although both immigration and climate reform are top priorities for the Obama administration, White House domestic policy adviser Melody Barnes said, it is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) who “sets the agenda.” MSNBC’s Chuck Todd questioned Barnes this morning over the conflict between Reid and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) that derailed the expected unveiling of comprehensive climate legislation Monday. Barnes said that energy reform — what President Obama has called one of his “foundational priorities” — is “critical to this country,” while immigration reform is “important.” However, she repeatedly indicated that the responsibility for moving forward lies with Reid:

MELODY BARNES: What the president and administration want is to work with Congress, Republicans and Democrats in Congress to address these big issues. The Senate Majority Leader will make a decision how to go forward. Immigration reform is important. We also know that comprehensive energy reform is critical to this country. We have to get away from reliance on foreign oil. We know we can create clean energy jobs. So both of these are top priorities for this president. We’re going to be working with the Senate.

CHUCK TODD: Can either be signed this year?

BARNES: We’re hoping to move forward with the majority leader as he sets the agenda.

Watch it:

Reid’s staff had leaked to reporters that the majority leader wanted the Senate to consider an immigration bill before climate legislation, a statement that made little sense other than a response to local political pressures. As Graham, who has been the lead Republican on both issues, voiced his displeasure, it seems neither Reid nor the White House reached out to quell his anger. Graham and Sen. John Kerry’s (D-MA) American Power Act is ready to be unveiled for direct floor consideration, but immigration reform requires “significant committee work that has not yet begun” — as Reid said. President Obama has been keeping his pledge to immigration reform advocates to raise the issue with Republicans like Sen. Scott Brown (D-MA) to get on board with Graham and Sen. Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) immigration effort, but the two bills aren’t on the same timetable.

In addition to the fealty of most Republicans to killer fossil industries, Democrats have competing camps on the best pathway to energy action, with senators like Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) pushing for alternate strategies to President Obama’s comprehensive climate reform. Reid has waffled on whether he would be willing to risk conflict with Democratic committee chairs by taking climate reform straight to the floor. This potential conflict with senators like agriculture chair Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and finance chair Max Baucus (D-MT) would likely have to be mediated by the President, even as Graham would have the responsibility of locking down Republican votes other than himself.

When it comes to setting the national agenda and leading the Democratic Party, the buck stops at the President’s desk, not at Harry Reid’s. The real people who need real action on immigration and climate reform need the White House to assert leadership.

Transcript: Read more

Oil Spill Now Covering More Than 1,800 Square Miles

Coast Guard officials said Monday afternoon that the oil spill near Louisiana was now covering more than 1,800 square miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and they have been unable to engage a mechanism that could shut off the well thousands of feet below the ocean’s surface.

Read more

With some heated Stoat on the side

I used to know Dr. Judith Curry pretty well — heck, she even gave me a jacket quote for Hell and High Water!  Now I obviously don’t.

Everyone who follows climate science should read what is easily the most revealing interview I’ve ever seen a scientist give.  Be sure to read all the comments, since they are even more revealing.

Curry 2.0 lumps Gavin Schmidt and Richard Lindzen together as basically two sides of the same coin — Not (see “Re-discredited climate denialists in denial“).  She repeatedly labels the Wegman report — aka the “Independent” critique of Hockey Stick revealed as fatally flawed right-wing anti-science set up — a National Research Council report, which is a blatantly false statement.  The Wegman report is to real NRC report on the Hockey Stick what Lindzen is to Schmidt.

She labels my blog, RealClimate, and all others in blogger Keith Kloor’s blogroll “warmist sites.”  That actually is another untrue statement (he includes the anti-science website PlanetGore, for instance), but she’s annoyed he doesn’t link to the extremist anti-science site WattsUpWithThat!  Seriously.

Curry 2.0 pigeonholes into the “warmist” tribe anybody who articulates the understanding of climate science that we now have ascertained based on direct observations, basic physics, and the peer-reviewed literature.  But if she has a single disagreement with anyone in the anti-science tribe, she keeps it to herself.

Read more

Washington Post downplays this amazing show of support

In its main environmental story today –  “On climate bill, Democrats work to overcome Graham’s immigration objections” — the WashPost said:

In some ways, the problem that proponents of climate legislation face is that they’re pursuing a policy goal that is not much of a hot-button political issue. Environmental activists had a well-attended event Sunday on the Mall, with musical stars Sting and John Legend, but immigration reform advocates are likely to dwarf that turnout with dozens of rallies across the country Saturday.

Yes, the biggest single climate rally in U.S. history is dismissed by comparison with the hypothetical cumulative turnout of dozens of future rallies on immigration.  Who says the media isn’t fair?  Apparently preserving the health and well-being of countless future generations isn’t “hot-button” enough for the media to be interested [kind of an ironic phrase, considering the rally was for action of global warming].

The “problem” for the White House (and Senate Majority Leader Reid) is that if they push immigration first, they kill both bills — knowingly — and they break a long-standing (and oft-repeated) commitment to three major constituencies:  environmentalists, clean energy types (like me), and young voters.

I am not an immigration analyst, so let me quote The New Republic‘s Jonathan Chait from Friday, writing about the possibility that “Senate Democratic leaders have decided to try to put immigration reform first on the agenda”:

Read more

A new macroeconomic analysis of green economic policies finds that cutting global warming pollution will make the economy grow faster.  Brad Johnson has the story in this Wonk Room repost.

The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), building upon analysis they did of state-level climate plans for the National Governors Association, analyzed the economic and environmental impact of legislation in line with the planned Kerry-Graham-Lieberman framework. As long as state-level policies are boosted, CCS found that previous economic analyses by federal agencies and industry groups are wrong. This CCS analysis finds that instead of slowing the economy, household wealth and jobs will grow faster in a green economy. Carbon limits and efficiency-focused policies would have a net positive employment impact of 2.8 million jobs and expand the economy by $154.7 billion by 2020, while US emissions are cut to 27 percent below 1990 levels “” if strong standards are set:

Read more

A new macroeconomic analysis of green economic policies finds that cutting global warming pollution will make the economy grow faster. The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), building upon analysis they did of state-level climate plans for the National Governors Association, analyzed the economic and environmental impact of legislation in line with the planned Kerry-Graham-Lieberman framework. As long as state-level policies are boosted instead of pre-empted, CCS found that previous economic analyses by federal agencies and industry groups are wrong. This CCS analysis finds that instead of slowing the economy, household wealth and jobs will grow faster in a green economy. Carbon limits and efficiency-focused policies would have a net positive employment impact of 2.8 million jobs and expand the economy by $154.7 billion by 2020, while US emissions are cut to 27 percent below 1990 levels — if strong standards are set:

The modeled job creation is consistent with the findings of Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, which used an input-output model to find that a green economy would create 1.7 million new jobs. The center looked at three different policy scenarios, using the industry-standard REMI Policy Insight PI+ macroeconomic model:

– Strong local, state and federal implementation of green economic policies like green building codes and smart growth
– These strong policies combined with a federal cap-and-trade system and coupled fuel fee to guarantee emissions reductions of 27 percent below 1990 levels by 2010

– Scaled-back implementation of the policies and cap-and-trade system in line with President Obama’s goal of six percent below 1990 levels, similar to the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman bill soon to be considered

The cap-and-trade system modeled uses full auction of permits and 75 percent of proceeds going directly back to consumers and 25 percent going to technology investments. No proceeds are dedicated to deficit reduction, as none is needed — a faster-growing economy will increase other tax receipts. Read more

Inaction threatens farm income

It remains conventional wisdom ignorance that a climate and clean energy jobs bill would not be good for farmers.  In fact, the future prosperity of U.S agriculture is tied to clean energy and the effects of climate change. Farmers are particularly vulnerable to the increased water shortages, widespread drought and floods, and lower crop yields that would result from global warming. And they are on the front lines every day, living and working the land, highly aware of these devastating consequences to farm productivity (see “A Stormy Forecast for U.S. Agriculture“).

Clean energy legislation, on the other hand, creates 3 new paychecks for farmers: a pay check for leasing a small portion of land for sustainable energy development like putting in a wind turbine that can earn them $3,000 to $15,000 per year, a paycheck for sequestering carbon in their soils by engaging in more sustainable and productive farming practices, and a paycheck for producing 2nd generation biofuel crops. CAP Director of Agriculture and Trade Policy Jake Caldwell has the story in this repost.

Read more