There’s something bewitching about the idea of “surrounding Dwight Howard with three All-Stars” but when you put a guy who’s traditionally been a high-volume shooter onto a new team you need to ask at whose expense are the shots going to come. Consider the True Shooting Efficiency (that’s field goal percentage adjusted to take into account free throws and thee pointers) of various current and former Magic players:
Simply replacing Courtney Lee’s shots with Carter’s doesn’t help. And if Carter’s offense comes at the expense of touches for Nelson, Howard, or Rashard Lewis the impact is strongly negative. But insofar as Carter’s shooting crowds out shots by Hedo and Pietrus, then you’re moving forward.
One thing to keep an eye on as we watch the Magic next year is that just based on the fact that Howard and Nelson are young, we would expect this team to get better—especially if Nelson stays healthy and productive for the whole year. It’s conceivable that superior team performance will then be undeservedly attributed to Carter.
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