San Francisco Federal Reserve Finds Better Than 50 Percent Chance The U.S. Falls Into Recession Next Year

A new analysis from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank finds that there is a better than 50 percent chance that the U.S. will tip back into recession in 2012, mostly due to the ongoing fiscal crisis in Europe. “A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession,” wrote researchers Travis Berge, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda. “However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.