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Yeas And Nays On Obama’s Stimulus Tax Cuts

taxcut2.jpgAs reported yesterday, President-elect Barack Obama is planning to direct up to 40 percent of his proposed economic stimulus plan toward a variety of tax cuts.

Today, specifics about some of the cuts have come forward, and while a few are laudable, such as the initiation of Obama’s “Making Work Pay” proposal, others have precious little to do with stimulating the economy and seem intended only to entice conservatives into supporting the legislation.

Here are two of the tax cut proposals, one of which is a properly targeted cut for lower-income families, and another that’s simply a boon for corporations:

Yea – Expanding Child Tax Credit:

This proposal “would grant an estimated 5.5 million poor children access to the credit for the first time, and expand the tax benefit for millions more poor children who currently qualify for only a partial credit.” As former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich pointed out while advocating that the Child Tax Credit be fully refundable, “Giving American families more economic security during this meltdown isn’t just fair. It’s also good policy, because the money they get to buy goods and services keeps other people in jobs.” Indeed, under this proposal a part-time working mother earning $5,000 a year would receive $300 that would almost assuredly make its way back into the economy.

Nay – Refunds on corporate losses:

A separate proposed provision “would provide businesses with billions of dollars in refunds” by enabling companies who posted a loss last year “to get refunds for taxes paid as far back as five years earlier.” Projections indicate that there were 107 companies in the S&P 1500 that lost money in 2008. And, as Dean Baker points out, “really big losers, like Robert Rubin’s Citigroup, and other badly failing financial institutions, are losing much more money in 2008 and 2009 than they earned in 2006 and 2007″ and stand to reap huge benefits.

The Hill reported today that the tax cut announcement was “preceded by a lobbying push by businesses, which argued that providing tax relief may be a better way of reviving the economy than simply directing money to pay for road and bridge construction.” And even if Obama is including these business breaks for the sole purpose of drumming up widespread conservative support, it needs to be acknowledged that their stimulative effect would be decidedly minimal.

Update

Paul Krugman noted that “letting businesses get refunds on past taxes based on current losses, which is reportedly a key feature of the plan, looks an awful lot like a lump-sum transfer with no incentive effects.”


Update

,Yglesias has more.

Real Estate Industry Pushing For Ineffective Tax Credit

Our guest blogger is Andrew Jakabovics, Associate Director for the Economic Mobility Program at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

homeforsalesign.JPGIn November, the National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level since the Index was created in 2001. November’s reading of 82.3 was 5.3 percent lower than last November and marked a second consecutive month of year-over-year declines, after a downward revision of October’s numbers to 85.7 left us with a 4.5 percent annual drop for that month. The index is a measure of anticipated sales over the next few months, based on the number of homes that have a signed contract but have not yet been closed upon.

Unsurprisingly, the real estate industry is looking to use the confluence of weak home sales and consideration of a stimulus package in Congress to push for an expansion of the $7500 homebuyers’ tax credit in an effort to spur commission-generating home sales.

But the high cost of housing isn’t the issue for most people; indeed, the Realtors predict that the share of homes considered affordable this coming year will match record highs set back in 1972. Moreover, the credit will only save the average buyer the equivalent of a latte a month, which is not likely to incentivize anyone who is not already planning to buy a home, thus making it a poor use of taxpayer resources.

The truth is that buyers are remaining on the sidelines not because homes are unaffordable or because interest rates are high, but because they are concerned about ongoing declines in home prices and are uncertain about their job security.

To address the problem of house price declines, we must stop the high rate of foreclosures, which drive down local home values and blight communities. The second $350 billion of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) should be used for the acquisition of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.

The underlying mortgages must then be restructured where feasible to provide the current homeowner with a sustainable monthly mortgage payment. The modified mortgages would then be resecuritized and sold back to the secondary market with a government guarantee. Increased confidence in job security will come through the passage of a recovery bill that puts job creation at the fore and sets the economy back on a path towards growth, along the lines the Center for American Progress has detailed.

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