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Economy

CHART: Mortgage Debt Is Holding Back The Economic Recovery

In a new report, Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Mike Konczal looks at several theories that attempt to explain the relationship between the weak housing market and the sluggish economy, and comes to the conclusion that mortgage debt (and not some structural factor) is one of the major factors holding back the recovery:

– The most recent empirical evidence, from academic quarters to the IMF, shows that underwater mortgage debt is creating a drag on the economic recovery. The recovery is weaker in places where mortgage debt is the highest, as more mortgage debt results in lower consumption and higher unemployment.

– Other explanations of the relationship between the housing crash and the weak economy, such as structural unemployment created by the house bubble, contain serious weaknesses.

– Debt writedowns, foreclosure mitigation, and other housing sector specific policies are a crucial tools in dealing with this “balance-sheet recession” and gettng the economy started again.

– Foreclosures exacerbate these problems by creating vicious cycles of destructive economic activity. Some estimate that foreclosures have caused an additional 25 percent of the decline in economic activity.

As this chart shows, the areas with the largest percentage of underwater mortgages have the highest unemployment rates:

A recent study from the Amherst Securities Group found that reducing mortgage debt is the most effective strategy for preventing foreclosures. Iceland, in fact, effectively used mortgage debt forgiveness to boost its economy. A bipartisan bill introduced this month by Reps. Gary Peters (D-MI), John Campbell (R-CA), and Keith Ellison (D-MN) would mandate debt reduction on government held mortgages.

Obama Threatens To Veto Bill That Defunds Wall Street Reform

House Republicans, after failing to prevent the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law from passing Congress, have attempted to undermine it by refusing to give Wall Street regulators adequate funds to do their jobs. Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are short of the funding they require, and House Republicans recently voted in committee to fund the SEC $245 million below the Obama administration’s request for 2013.

However, should that funding bill actually reach President Obama’s desk, he has announced that he will veto it:

The 2013 Financial Services bill is heading to the House floor after being considered by the Rules Committee on Thursday.

The bill severely undermines key investments in financial oversight and implementation of Wall Street reform to protect American consumers, as well as needed tax enforcement and taxpayer services. It also hampers effective implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA),” the White House statement reads.

House Republicans on the Appropriations Committee also recently approved a cut of $25 million to the CFTC’s budget.

Just ten days ago, the Republican chairman of the House Financial Services Committee admitted that Wall Street regulators do not have the resources necessary to do what Congress has asked of them. However, House Republicans have not acted to rectify the situation, instead bringing to the House floor a bill that would simply exacerbate the problem.

Education

Romney: Students Should Get ‘As Much Education As They Can Afford’

On the campaign trail Wednesday night in Virginia, Mitt Romney took on the topic of education. While extolling the virtues of America as “the land of opportunity for every single person,” Romney said that he believes students should only be able to get as much education “as they can afford”:

I think this is a land of opportunity for every single person, every single citizen of this great nation. And I want to make sure that we keep America a place of opportunity, where everyone has a fair shot. They get as much education as they can afford and with their time they’re able to get and if they have a willingness to work hard and the right values, they ought to be able to provide for their family and have a shot of realizing their dreams.

Watch it:

This is similar to other comments Romney has made regarding higher education, such as when he told students to simply borrow the money for college from their parents or when he told them to “shop around” or join the military to get an education. But the crux of the matter is that Romney’s policies would make college less affordable for low- and middle-income students. So what they “can afford” is going to be a lot less.

For starters, Romney supports the radical Republican budget, authored by Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), which would cut Pell Grants for more than one million students, at a time when Pell Grants are already covering the smallest percentage of tuition in their history.

Next, Romney supports undoing the student loan reforms that were included in the 2010 health care bill. Those changes cut billions of dollars that were being wasted paying bank middlemen to service federal student loans, and instead plowed the money back into student aid. Repealing the measure, as Romney would like to do, would simply spend money to put banks back between students and their federal loans.

Finally, Romney is a staunch supporter of predatory for-profit colleges, which are much more expensive than public schools, and often leave their students buried in debt and without the credentials necessary to obtain a good job. Of course, this should come as no surprise, since the for-profit industry is donating heavily to Romney’s campaign.

NEWS FLASH

House Passes Highway And Student Loan Bill | Moments ago, the House of Representatives passed a re-authorization of the highway bill by a vote of 373-52. House Republicans had previously been blocking the package, holding up funding for 1.9 million transportation jobs. The bill also includes an extension of the student loan rates that will prevent them from doubling on Sunday. The legislation will now go to the Senate, where it’s likely to pass.

Update

The Senate just approved the bill by a vote of 74-19.

Security

Economists: Iran’s Oil Revenues Could Fall By Half Under New Sanctions

Yesterday, new U.S. sanctions kicked-in barring global financial institutions from doing oil business through Iran’s central bank. On Sunday, a total European Union embargo on Iranian oil comes into effect. The world has, more or less, lined up behind these measures.

Now, economists are saying that these latest rounds of international sanctions could gut Iran’s oil-revenue-based economy. Jamie Webster, a senior manager of the Markets and Country Strategies Group at PFC Energy, told RFE/RL’s Golnaz Esfandiari:

A lot of these countries have already started to back out and essentially completed the backing out of that crude. So that’s around 600,000 barrels a day. Previously, before all of this latest rash of sanctions, Iran was exporting around 2.2 million barrels a day, so that is affecting them…

Another energy economist, Robin Mills, told Esfandiari that European firms’ refusal to insure Iranian oil tankers will also hurt Iranian oil sales to Eastern countries such as Japan and China, perhaps costing Iran another 400,000 barrels a day of exports. With prices of crude oil falling, that could mean Iran’s oil revenues fall by half, Mills said:

[O]il prices, which were very high in March, have fallen back quite significantly, so that’s a kind of a double impact.

So it could be that Iran’s oil revenues which were perhaps something like $100 billion to $110 billion during the last Iranian year, in this year they could be down to $45 billion to $50 billion, so the oil revenues could be cut in half overall with the combination of lower exports and lower prices.

Iran hawks in the U.S. calling for confrontation won’t even acknowledge that exports are down. Forget that the U.N.’s energy agency says Iran’s exports are down 40 percent, the stance that sanctions have no teeth willfully ignores even pronouncements by an Iranian official that exports are down between 20 and 30 percent. (The Iranians rarely acknowledge any economic pain at all, let alone from sanctions.)

The dual-track of pressure and diplomacy pursued by the Obama administration is based on the notion that a potential Iranian nuclear weapon is widely considered a threat to both the security of the U.S. and its allies in the region, as well as the nuclear non-proliferation regime. U.S., U.N. and Israeli intelligence estimates give the West time to pursue an approach other than war. Questions about the efficacy and potential consequences of a strike have led U.S. officials to declare that diplomacy is the “best and most permanent way” to resolve the crisis.

Update

CAP’s Ken Sofer has more analysis on the sanctions and negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program

NEWS FLASH

Number Of Homeless Students Tops One Million For The First Time | According to a report from the Department of Education, the number of homeless students in the U.S. topped one million for the first time during the 2010-2011 school year. The number includes students enrolled in public preschool through 12th grade, and as the Orlando Sentinel pointed out, “the figure actually underestimates the number of homeless children by excluding infants, toddlers, preschool-aged children who aren’t enrolled in public programs and homeless children who are home-schooled.” According to the data, “44 states overall saw the number of homeless students increase, while “fifteen states’ homeless student population increased by one fifth or more.” (HT: Joy Resmovits and Saki Knafo)

Why Obamacare Is A Tax Cut For Millions Of Americans

Following the Supreme Court’s ruling yesterday that Obamacare, the 2010 health care law, is constitutional under Congress’ ability to tax, Republicans have launched a full court press calling the individual mandate a “massive tax hike.” But as ThinkProgress noted yesterday, there is no massive tax hike: few people will ever pay the penalty, and those who do will pay less than the amount of the payroll tax increase that Republicans nearly allowed to occur.

In addition, according to a report from Families USA, 28.6 million Americans, most of them middle-class, will receive tax cuts under the bill due to entering health care exchanges and receiving affordability credits:

We found that an estimated 28.6 million Americans will be eligible for the tax credits in 2014, and that the total value of the tax credits that year will be $110.1 billion. The new tax credits will provide much-needed assistance to insured individuals and families who struggle harder each year to pay rising premiums, as well as to uninsured individuals and families who need help purchasing coverage that otherwise would be completely out of reach financially. Most of the families who will be eligible for the tax credits will be employed, many for small businesses, and will have incomes between two and four times poverty (between $44,100 and $88,200 for a family of four based on 2010 poverty guidelines).

In addition to these tax credits and the fact that more than 30 million Americans will have new access to health insurance, the health care law will help create millions of jobs.

Econ 101: June 29, 2012

Welcome to ThinkProgress Economy’s morning link roundup. This is what we’re reading. Have you seen any interesting news? Let us know in the comments section. You can also follow ThinkProgress Economy on Twitter.

  • Euro zone leaders agreed today to emergency actions to bring down Italy and Spain’s borrowing costs. [CNBC]
  • European leaders also agreed to create a single supervisory board for Euro zone banks. [Reuters]
  • Congress may vote today on a package of legislation that includes transportation funding and prevents student loan interest rates from rising. [Associated Press]
  • Corporate profits declined last quarter for the first time since the recession. [New York Times]
  • President Obama has threatened to veto this year’s defense appropriations bill because it violates spending levels set in last year’s debt ceiling deal. [The Hill]
  • The Supreme Court’s health care ruling has implications for education spending. [Education Week]
  • The New York City Council voted to override Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s veto of a living wage bill. [Wall Street Journal]

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