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How Romney’s Attempt To Prove He Wouldn’t Raise Middle Class Taxes Fell Flat

The non-partisan Tax Policy Center released an analysis this month showing that, in order for to Mitt Romney to achieve all of the goals he had laid out in his tax plan, he would have to raise taxes on everyone making less than $200,000, including a $2,000 annual tax increase on middle class families. Romney, after first trying to paint the organization as ideologically opposed to him (despite one of the study’s authors being a former official in the George H.W. Bush administration), then took to attacking the study itself.

“There’s an old expression in the computer world: garbage in, garbage out,” Romney said. “They made garbage assumptions and they reached a garbage conclusion.”

The Romney camp complained that TPC “did not sufficiently account for the potential benefits of Mr. Romney’s separate proposals to lower the corporate tax rate to 25 percent from 35 percent, reduce other business taxes and cut domestic spending deeply.” However, TPC re-ran the numbers to include these provisions, and found that they make Romney’s plan even worse for the middle class and low-income Americans:

Governor Romney’s tax advisors told TPC that the (then, as now, unspecified) cuts in corporate tax preferences were not meant to finance the initial rate cut to 25 percent but instead would pay for a subsequent revenue-neutral set of proposals that would reduce corporate rates further and enact a territorial system.

In our analysis, we assumed that Romney’s plan to reduce the rate to 25 percent could be achieved through some unspecified corporate base broadening, and therefore that the revenue and distributional consequences of this rate cut could be ignored in the remainder of our analysis. If, instead, we had included the reduction in the corporate tax rate (which would reduce revenues by $96 billion in 2015 in the absence of base-broadening), the result would have been an even larger tax cut on high-income individuals, requiring even larger cuts to tax expenditures, and correspondingly larger increases in taxes on middle- and/or lower-income taxpayers.

TPC also noted that the spending cuts Romney has in mind would likely hit middle class families the hardest. So between Romney’s plan and vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan’s budget, the GOP ticket has a pair of proposals that would raise taxes on the middle class in order to cut them for the rich.

STUDY: Raising The Minimum Wage Especially Benefits Women

A group of House Democrats are seeking to increase the minimum wage to $9.80 per hour in order to help shrink the ever-increasing gap between the wealthiest Americans and struggling workers. This modest increase to the current $7.25 per hour would help catch the wage up to the rate of inflation, since the buying power of the 1968 minimum wage is the equivalent of about $10.55 an hour today.

A new report from the Economic Policy Institute finds that, while raising the minimum wage to the proposed $9.80 level would have a significant impact on about 28 million low-income workers, it would especially benefit women. As the report puts it, the fact that “women comprise 54.5 percent of workers who would be affected by a potential minimum-wage increase makes it a women’s issue”:

The impact on women varies by state, ranging from the highest percentage of affected women in Mississippi — where 64.4 percent of the low-wage workers who would benefit from a minimum wage hike are female — to 49.3 percent in both California and Nevada. However, California and Nevada are the only states where women do not make up the majority of the low-income workers who would be positively affected by a higher wage.

Despite the fact that millions of women would see their lives improve with an increased minimum wage, conservatives oppose initiatives to raise it, using tired arguments that it will kill jobs and hurt small businesses. In fact, studies show that a higher minimum wage does not impede job growth, especially because the nation’s biggest and most profitable corporations are the biggest employers of minimum wage employees.

China’s Richest 1 Percent Hold 70 Percent Of Their Nation’s Private Wealth

Occupy Wall Street protests last year drew significant attention to America’s income inequality, which has grown by leaps and bounds over the last few decades. But the U.S. is hardly the only nation grappling with extreme inequality. As the Wall Street Journal noted today, China’s richest 1 percent hold 70 percent of their nation’s private wealth:

Just under 1% of households globally control nearly 40% of the world’s private financial wealth, according to the Boston Consulting Group. In China, where nearly half the population is still rural, just under 1% of households control more than 70% of the nation’s private financial wealth, BCG estimated in 2008. Surveys of public opinion regularly place corruption and income inequality at the top of Chinese concerns.

According to the CIA’s World Factbook, China is the 27th most unequal country. The U.S. ranks 42nd. And the problem may be even worse in China than official statistics show, as Businessweek reported:

The incomes of better-off families are understated, says Wang Xiaolu, an economist at the independent National Economic Research Institute in Beijing.

Undisclosed income, which Wang says could add up to $1.4 trillion annually, ranges from kickbacks to businesses or government to perks such as subsidized housing offered by state-run companies. If so, the wealthiest 10 percent of the population earned 65 times that of poorest 10 percent—not the 23 times shown by government data.

In the U.S., the richest 1 percent hold 34.5 percent of total wealth, while the bottom half of Americans hold just 1.1 percent.

Analysis: Paul Ryan Voted to Add $6.8 Trillion to the Federal Debt

Our guest blogger is Harsha Nahata, an intern at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan has gained an undeserved reputation as a “fiscal hawk,” touting his “Path to Prosperity” budget as a responsible plan to rein in what he describes as a “path to debt and decline.” But Ryan’s votes in Congress show that he is as guilty as anyone of running up the nation’s debt.

A Center for American Progress Action Fund analysis shows that Ryan voted to add a grand total of $6.8 trillion to the federal debt during his time in Congress, voting for at least 65 bills that either reduced revenue or increased spending.

From 2001 to 2008, Congress passed legislation that increased the national deficit by a total of $4 trillion — the number grows to $6 trillion if you add in the how much those policies have cost through 2011. Ryan voted for 90 percent of these deficit increasing bills.

What did Ryan vote to spend on? Here is a break-down of his votes:

– Beginning with the Bush tax cuts, since 2001 Ryan has voted to add $2.5 trillion worth of tax cuts to the deficit.

– In the last 11 years, Paul Ryan voted for every bill that called for an increase in defense spending. In total, this has added $1.9 trillion to the deficit.

– Paul Ryan also voted to increase non-defense discretionary spending — the very thing he is pushing to cut now. He voted to spend $270 billion on Medicare Part D (all of which was unpaid for). He also added $80 billion to the deficit by voting for an agriculture bill in 2002, and he added another $20 billion in 2003 when he voted for changes to military retirement. Lastly, he voted for increased borrowing authority for flood insurance, adding yet another $17 billion to the deficit.

Plus, Ryan’s plan won’t really balance the budget — at least not for the foreseeable future. The Tax Policy Center calculates that under Ryan’s budget plan, the federal government would only raise revenue totaling 15.8 percent of GDP. This would still make the deficit 4 percent of GDP by 2022.

Alyssa

‘The Wire’ Creator David Simon Slams Mitt Romney on Taxes

David Simon has never had much patience for the vultures in any economic system he’s examined (with the possible exception of Omar, the roguish robber of drug dealers in The Wire), and he’s positively appalled by the idea that Mitt Romney’s declaration that he’s never paid less than thirteen percent of his income in taxes constitutes an appropriate defense of Romney’s approach to his finances and his fiscal obligations to his government and fellow citizens:

Am I supposed to congratulate this man? Thank him for his good citizenship? Compliment him for being clever enough to arm himself with enough tax lawyers so that he could legally minimize his obligations?

Thirteen percent. The last time I paid taxes at that rate, I believe I might still have been in college. If not, it was my first couple years as a newspaper reporter. Since then, the paychecks have been just fine, thanks, and I don’t see any reason not to pay at the rate appropriate to my earnings, given that I’m writing the check to the same government that provided the economic environment that allowed for such incomes.

Simon may be impatient with Obama, particularly on issues of the drug war and mass incarceration, but if he decides that the present commander in chief is preferable to a guy whose attitudes indicate that, as Simon puts it, “This republic is just about over, isn’t it?” I imagine the Obama administration wouldn’t say no if Simon wanted to shoot some ads for the campaign. Treme comes back in September, and Simon might have some free time once it’s in the can. Just a thought.

How Romney Could Stop Wall Street Reform Without Repealing Dodd-Frank

Mitt Romney has made no secret of his desire to do away with the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, signed in 2010 as a response to the 2008 financial crisis. Romney’s economic plan calls for the full repeal of Dodd-Frank, which Romney says he will replace with…something.

But even if Romney couldn’t get a full repeal through Congress, his other proposals could gum up some important implementation of Dodd-Frank, as American Banker noted today:

The proposals, taken together, would make it far harder for regulatory agencies to enact new regulations. The impact would be especially large with regard to the 2010 financial reform law, much of which has yet to take effect. Under Romney’s plan, agencies would be required to eliminate existing regulations whenever they implement new ones. Congress would also have a much easier time blocking regulations that are proposed by the agencies.

Even if the courts eventually struck down Romney’s proposals — the policies would likely spark legal challenges — they could force delays at agencies such as the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The two proposals American Banker identified are: a call by Romney for new regulations to go through a process in which their cost is offset by the elimination of other regulations; and his support for a measure requiring all regulations with an economic impact of more than $100 million to be individually approved by Congress.

Experts note that requiring offsets for new regulations — essentially putting in a cap on regulation — ignores the benefits that new regulations could bring. “The benefit side of the ledger seems to be ignored both for the proposed regulation and for the old regulation that you’d need to get rid of,” said Texas Tech University law professor Richard Murphy.

Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan, meanwhile, has advanced a budget that doesn’t repeal Dodd-Frank, but does gut some of its key provisions. One in particular would remove the government’s new ability to unwind failing financial firms rather than resorting to the ad hoc bailouts of 2008.

Romney claimed this week that “no one is talking about deregulating Wall Street.” That’s turning out to be less and less true.

Politics

4 Ways Paul Ryan’s Budget Would Devastate The Poor

National media attention has focused on Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) drastic restructuring of the Medicare program, detailing the Vice Presidential candidate’s efforts to transform the current benefit guarantee into a “premium support” program for future enrollees.

But Romney/Ryan’s most devastating changes would impact programs that serve society’s most vulnerable citizens. American who rely on Medicaid, food stamps and Pell grants won’t be afforded the luxury of retaining their existing benefits, should Romney and Ryan implement their plans; these programs would experience immediate reductions if the Ryan budget becomes law (via CBPP):

1. CUTS FOOD STAMPS BY $133 BILLION: Ryan’s budget would send the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, or food stamps) back to the states as a block grant and cut the program by $134 billion. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “an average of almost 10 million people would have to be cut from the program in the years from 2016 through 2022 to achieve the required savings.” If the cuts were to come from benefits, rather than kicking families out of the program, “All families of four — including the poorest — would see their benefits cut by about $90 a month in fiscal year 2016, or more than $1,100 on an annual basis.” Ryan continually claims that the food stamp program is “unsustainable,” even though the numbers show that’s simply not the case.

2. CUTS MEDICAID BY 1/3: Ryan would treat Medicaid in the same way: transform the exiting matching-grant financing structure into a pre-determined block grant that will not keep up with actual health care spending and send it back to the states. This would shift some of the burden of Medicaid’s growing costs to the states, forcing them to — in the words of the CBO — make cutbacks that “involve reduced eligibility for Medicaid and CHIP, coverage of fewer services, lower payments to providers, or increased cost sharing by beneficiaries—all of which would reduce access to care.” The reductions to Medicaid kick in right away: between 2013 and 2022, the budget makes $1.4 trillion in cuts to Medicaid —a 34 percent reduction. As a result, states could reduce enrollment by more than 14 million people, or almost 20 percent—even if they are were able to slow the growth in health care costs substantially.

3. 30 MILLION AMERICANS WOULD LOSE HEALTH COVERAGE: Romney and Ryan would repeal the Affordable Care Act, including the subsidies for middle-class Americans to purchase coverage and the expansion of the Medicaid program for lower-income Americans. As a result, more than 30 million Americans would lose access to insurance. The popular regulations that prohibit insurers from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions and rescinding coverage would also be repealed.

4. CUTS PELL GRANTS FOR 1 MILLION STUDENTS: Ryan consistently claims that increases in financial aid are driving up the cost of higher education, even though evidence doesn’t back him up. The budget Ryan authored, according to an analysis by the Education Trust, would eliminate Pell Grants entirely for one million students. In 2011, 74 percent of Pell Grant recipients had family incomes of $30,000 or less. These cuts would come despite the fact that the price of a college degree has skyrocketed 1,120 percent over the last three decades.

NEWS FLASH

Economists: Europe Is Headed For A Lost Decade | According to work by economists Peter Rupert and Thomas Cooley, none of Europe’s biggest economies have returned to their pre-recession levels except for Germany. As the New York Times noted, “The figures suggest that Europe is already well into what could become a lost decade — a period of pernicious stagnation and wasted potential that could have lasting effects on ordinary citizens.” The U.S. surpassed its pre-recession output in January 2011.

Econ 101: August 17, 2012

Welcome to ThinkProgress Economy’s morning link roundup. This is what we’re reading. Have you seen any interesting news? Let us know in the comments section. You can also follow ThinkProgress Economy on Twitter.

  • The Obama administration plans to make nearly half a billion dollars in unspent highway funds available to states that promise to use the money to create jobs. [Associated Press]
  • In a new poll, business executives around the globe say President Obama will be better for the world economy that his challenger Mitt Romney. [Reuters]
  • Two top Federal Reserve officials publicly came out against further central bank action to boost the economy. [Reuters]
  • Regulators finally approved the construction of a large wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts this week. [The Hill]
  • Finland reconfirmed its dedication to the Euro yesterday, after a foreign minister said in an interview that European leaders must prepare for a breakup of the currency union. [CNBC]
  • Treasury is planning to rework its financial backing of government mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [Wall Street Journal]

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