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Economy

Paul Ryan Wants The Federal Reserve To Stop Fighting Unemployment

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced his institution would launch a third round of quantitative easing — the monetary stimulus the Fed has used intermittently to boost the economy since 2008 — in an effort to finally fulfill the “reduce unemployment” half of the Fed’s dual mandate. In response, Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan denounced the move as “sugar high economics” and repeated to the Christian Broadcasting Network his assertion that “the costs outweigh the benefits” of QE:

I’m not a fan of QE3. I wasn’t a fan of QE2 either. I think in the long run it will do more harm than good. But what this is is it’s the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy trying to bail out the fact that we have terrible leadership on fiscal policy from President Obama…

I fear that it undermines the ultimate credibility of our currency, of our money and you need to have sound money. It’s a necessary pre-condition for economic growth. We have loose money already so it’s not a question of having too tight of a monetary policy. We have exceptionally loose monetary policy… This kind of easing hurts savers, questions the credibility of our currency, and I think ultimately the costs outweigh the benefits.

Watch it:

ThinkProgress already reported on the problems in Paul Ryan’s cost/benefit analysis: Inflation remains at a near-historic low of 2 percent — far below the 12 percent inflation of the 1970s — while unemployment is still at 8 percent. The Fed’s interest rates have nowhere to go but up, meaning inflation could be easily reined in if it began to dangerously rise.

Bernanke himself has already estimated the initial rounds of QE created as many as 2 million jobs. And the “savers” that Ryan says could be hurt are in fact a very narrow group, according to Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research: “Realistically there are not a lot of people who both have substantial savings (enough that the interest makes up a big share of their income) and who kept it exclusively in short-term assets… The winners from a policy to boost growth through lower interest rates vastly outnumber the losers.”

Ryan’s claim that monetary policy is already “exceptionally loose” is also questionable. Milton Friedman, the 20th century economist beloved by many conservatives, argued that interest rates are actually poor indicators of monetary policy. Better indicators are inflation and nominal GDP growth, a view with which Bernanke has concurred. Both the inflation and NGDP growth trends suggest monetary policy is actually too tight.

Ryan is certainly right that monetary stimulus is a second-best option for boosting the economy after better fiscal policy. But the international and domestic evidence shows that Ryan’s preferred fiscal policy would drive the economy further into the ground. Meanwhile, the Republicans’ control of the House and their filibuster in the Senate have enabled them to torpedo fiscal policy that would actually help.

Education

Republican Congressman Pushes For Unlimited Calorie School Lunches

Last week, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) called calorie caps on school lunches “the nanny state personified.” This week, he is moving to eliminate the caps with his pleasantly-titled “No Hungry Kids Act,” H.R. 6418.

King’s bill is a direct response to the the Let’s Move! campaign, an initiative from First Lady Michelle Obama. Her effort prompted the Healthy and Hunger Free Kids Act, which set such calorie limits on school meals and opened up funding for physical fitness programs. But while some might see the move as a way to combat childhood obesity, King believes that it is denying kids sustenance:

For the first time in history, the USDA has set a calorie limit on school lunches,” King said last week. “The goal of the school lunch program was — and is — to insure students receive enough nutrition to be healthy and to learn.

“The misguided nanny state, as advanced by Michelle Obama’s ‘Healthy and Hunger Free Kids Act,’ was interpreted by Secretary [Tom] Vilsack to be a directive that, because some kids are overweight, he would put every child on a diet. Parents know that their kids deserve all of the healthy and nutritious food they want.

The Congressman may believe that an unlimited amount of “healthy” foods may be beneficial to a kid, but he’s got his facts wrong. One can have too much of a good thing.

Perhaps King’s motivation in this area stems from his financial backing by “Big Food,” which has a vested interest in selling more school lunch supplies. King has not been similarly vocal in favor of nutrition assistance programs for low-income kids.

The exact wording of the original legislation limits lunch calorie counts for K-5 students to 650, while 6-8 grad students get 700 calories, and high school student’s meals can be up to 850 calories. Those numbers follow the suggestions of the Mayo Clinic.

NEWS FLASH

CHART: By 2020, Two-thirds Of American Jobs Will Require Some Higher Education | According to a new report from the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, by 2020, two-thirds of American jobs will require at least some higher education, while 24 percent will require a high school diploma and just 12 percent will require less than a high school education. By comparison, “in 1973, nearly three out of four jobs required only a high school education or less.” (HT: Kay Steiger)

Wisconsin GOP Governor Looks To Repeal Building Safety Codes

In another attack on the boogeyman of “big government,” Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) is moving forward with a new measure to remove the requirement for electrical safety measures in state building codes. The proposal, which was approved by the governor in late June, is now subject to more in-depth study by state officials and testimony from experts.

The safeguards are designed to detect unsafe conditions and prevent electrical fires. And Walker is moving ahead with his plan to remove them, even though his own proposal finds they add barely anything to the cost of construction:

Mandatory requirements designed to detect fire-causing conditions, stop electric shocks and keep children from sticking foreign objects into electrical outlets have been targeted for removal from the state code, according to a governor-approved plan to rewrite the rules to administer the code. [...]

Joe Jameson [President of the South Western Wisconsin Electrical Inspectors Association] called the proposal “bizarre,” saying the safety requirements add about $200 to a typical $200,000 home, and even the proposal notes the “economic impact is minimal.”

This isn’t the first time that Governor Walker’s numbers haven’t made sense. After all, he plowed ahead with his attempt to dismantle unions in his state, in spite of the fact that such a radical policy change saved Wisconsin essentially no money.

In a response to concerns raised by electrical inspectors, the governor’s office offered little comfort, saying just that “the change to this rule simply reflects concerns that were raised to DSPS [Department of Safety and Professional Services] by individuals who construct homes. Instead of mandating the use of these products, this rule change would make it optional.”

Nathaniel Niemann

NEWS FLASH

Study: Economic Recessions Harm Older Americans’ Health | According to new research from Wellesley College, the 20 million Americans between the ages of 55 and 60 are at an increased risk for long-term health problems stemming from the impact of the Great Recession. Economic researchers compared data on mortality and employment over the past four decades to confirm that, according to the lead author of the study, “being unfortunate enough to experience a recession as an older worker has significant lifelong effects for one’s health.” Presumably, joblessness — and the resulting lack of income and health insurance — puts older Americans more at risk for health issues than younger workers. However, due to the safety net that the Social Security and Medicare programs provide, the data suggests that Americans over the age of 62 are able to weather recessions just as well as the younger population. As the study’s authors explained, their results “stress the importance of Social Security to the well-being of the elderly.”

New Study Finds Tax Cuts For The Rich Cause Income Inequality, Not Economic Growth

According to a new report by the Congressional Research Service, cutting taxes for the wealthiest does not cause economic growth, despite constant conservative claims that it will. Instead, tax cuts for the rich merely exacerbate income inequality, CRS found:

Throughout the late-1940s and 1950s, the top marginal tax rate was typically above 90%; today it is 35%. Additionally, the top capital gains tax rate was 25% in the 1950s and 1960s, 35% in the 1970s; today it is 15%. The real GDP growth rate averaged 4.2% and real per capita GDP increased annually by 2.4% in the 1950s. In the 2000s, the average real GDP growth rate was 1.7% and real per capita GDP increased annually by less than 1%. There is not conclusive evidence, however, to substantiate a clear relationship between the 65-year steady reduction in the top tax rates and economic growth. Analysis of such data suggests the reduction in the top tax rates have had little association with saving, investment, or productivity growth. However, the top tax rate reductions appear to be associated with the increasing concentration of income at the top of the income distribution.

As this chart shows, per capita GDP growth rates and the top tax rate have essentially no relationship:

This jibes with other recent studies that show little relationship between the top tax rate and economic growth. A new analysis by Owen M. Zidar, a former staff economist on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and a graduate student at California-Berkeley, found that “a one percent of GDP tax cut for the bottom 90% results in 2.7 percentage points of GDP growth over a two-year period. The corresponding estimate for the top 10% is 0.13 percentage points and is insignificant statistically.” GDP growth, business investment, and a host of other economic indicators were all stronger during the 1990s, after taxes were raised on the rich, than during the supply-side eras of Presidents George W. Bush and Reagan.

Occupy Wall Street One Year Later: Ten Key Charts About Inequality

Today marks the one year anniversary of the Occupy Wall Street protests, and activists intend to mark the milestone by holding a new round of demonstrations. Dozens have already been arrested, even before the main protests began.

Occupy Wall Street managed to turn the attention of America’s politicians, at least for a moment, to income inequality, economic mobility, and the dismal state of both in the U.S. Here are some key facts and figures to know as Occupy once again takes to the streets:

1) Income inequality grew in 2011. According to data released last week by the Census Bureau, the gap between the wealthiest Americans and those in the middle grew last year, as all but the richest 20 percent of the country saw their income drop.

2) America’s 1 percent have 288 times as much wealth as the median household. This constitutes a huge increase from 1962, when the ratio was 125-1.


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Econ 101: September 17, 2012

Welcome to ThinkProgress Economy’s morning link roundup. This is what we’re reading. Have you seen any interesting news? Let us know in the comments section. You can also follow ThinkProgress Economy on Twitter.

  • This week will be Congress’ last work period before the November election. [The Hill]
  • The Obama administration plans to file a World Trade Organization complaint against China today, alleging illegal subsidizing of auto parts. [Wall Street Journal]
  • The iPhone 5 has set a new sales record for Apple. [Fortune]
  • The Federal Reserve’s new round of quantitative easing could be blunted by mortgage processing delays at the nation’s biggest banks. [Financial Times]
  • The Chicago teacher’s strike is expected to continue through at least Tuesday. [Reuters]
  • The U.S. and the UK have signed an agreement to help crack down on tax cheats. [The Hill]
  • General Motors is pushing for the Treasury Department to sell off the rest of its stake in the auto company. [Wall Street Journal]
  • U.S. regulators are investigating JP Morgan Chase’s anti-money laundering protections. [Reuters]

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