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Comparing The CBO Scores For Different Health Care Bills

By Igor Volsky  

"Comparing The CBO Scores For Different Health Care Bills"

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We’re still waiting on the the language of the reconciliation bill, but I’ve gone through the preliminary CBO report and pulled out some numbers to compare the new package with the old Senate and House drafts. Obviously, the new package spends more and achieves greater deficit reductions than the old Senate bill. It puts more money towards affordability credits, increases the federal contribution towards Medicaid and increases Medicaid reimbursement for primary care physicians. The bill pays for this new spending by imposing higher penalties on employers, extending the payroll tax to unearned income and levying new taxes on the pharmaceutical, medical device, and insurance industries.

Here is a breakdown of the different CBO scores:


New Bill Senate Bill House Bill
Costs Reduce deficits: $138B/10yrs
Cost: $940B/10yrs
Spends on subsidies: $466B/10yrs
On Medicaid/CHIP: $434B/10yrs
On Small Employer Credit: $40B/10yrs
Reduce deficits: $118B/10yrs
Cost: $875B/10yrs
Spends on subsidies: $436B/10yrs
On Medicaid/CHIP: $395B/10yrs
On Small Employer Credit: $40B/10yrs
Reduce deficits: $109B/10yrs
Cost:$1.2T/10yrs
Spends on subsidies: $605B/10yrs
On Medicaid/CHIP: $425B/10yrs/10yrs
On Small Employer Credit: $25B/10yrs
Insured Uninsured reduced by: 32M
Uninsured in 2019: 22M
In Exchanges: 24M
In Medicaid: 16M
Uninsured reduced by: 31M
Uninsured in 2019: 23M
In Exchanges: 26M
In Medicaid: 15M
Uninsured reduced by: 36M
Uninsured in 2019: 18M
In Exchanges: 30M
In Medicaid: 15M
Revenue Mandate penalty: $17B/10yrs
Free rider penalty: $52B/10yrs
Excise tax: $32B/10yrs
Payroll tax: $210B/10yrs
Mandate penalty: $15B/10yrs
Free rider penalty: $28B/10yrs
Excise tax: $149B/10yrs
Payroll tax: $87B/10yrs
Mandate penalty: $33B/10yrs
Pay-Play penalty: $135B/10yrs
Excise tax: —
Payroll tax: —
Medicare
and
Medicaid
Total savings: ~$493B/10yrs
Medicare Advantage: $200B/10yrs
Total savings: $483B/10yrs
Medicare Advantage: $118B/10yrs
Total savings: $426B/10yrs
Medicare Advantage: $170B/10yrs

One of the most stunning numerical changes is in the excise tax on Cadillac plans. While the bill changes the indexing from inflation plus 1 to inflation — strengthening the provision — it pushes back the entire effort to 2018 and significantly raises the thresholds. I suspect the bill makes up the difference with the payroll tax and the savings from the college loan provisions. More to come.

Update

OpenCongress Blog has a great table.

‹ NEW CBO SCORE: Package Would Reduce Deficit By $138 Billion, Cover 32 Million Americans

ANALYSIS: How The Reconciliation Package Improved The Senate Bill ›

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