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CBO: Public Option To Attract Only 6 Million Enrollees & Doesn’t Offer Lower Premiums

BaucusNancyThe Congressional Budget Office analysis of the recently released House health bill has concluded that the bill costs $894 billion over 10 years and reduces the deficit by $104B over 10 years.

The public option would attract about 6 million enrollees by 2019 and charge premiums that are “somewhat higher than the average premiums for the private plans in the exchanges.” This is because the public option would “engage in less management of utilization” by its enrollees and “attract a less healthy pool of enrollees,” the office concludes. Moreover, since the House bill expands Medicaid up to 150% of the federal poverty line, it’s possible that the enrollees that would have enrolled in the public option went into Medicaid instead.

Below is a comparison of the relevant provisions in the House and Senate Finance Committee legislation:


CBO Score Of House Bill CBO Score Of Baucus Bill
Costs Reduce deficits: $104B/10yrs
Cost: $894B/10yrs
Spends on subsidies: $605B/10yrs
On Medicaid/CHIP: $425B/10yrs
On Small Employer Credit: $25B/10yrs
Reduce deficits: $81B/10yrs
Cost: $829B/10yrs
Spends on subsidies: $461B/10yrs
On Medicaid/CHIP: $345B/10yrs
On Small Employer Credit: $23B/10yrs
Insured Uninsured reduced by: 36M
Uninsured in 2019: 18M
In Exchanges: 30M | Public Plan: 6M
In Medicaid: 15M
Uninsured reduced by: 29M
Uninsured in 2019: 25M
In Exchanges: 23M
In Medicaid: 14M
Revenue Mandate penalty: $33B/10yrs
Pay-Play penalty: $135B/10yrs
New taxes: $572B/10yrs
Mandate penalty: $4B/10yrs
Free rider penalty: $23B/10yrs
New taxes: $196B/10yrs
Medicare
and
Medicaid
Total savings: 426B/10yrs
Medicare Advantage: $170B/10yrs
Total savings: 404B/10yrs
Medicare Advantage: $117B/10yrs

Top 10 Reasons Why Republicans Should Support The House Health Bill

HouseGOP

This morning, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) characterized the entire House health care bill as a “government run insurance 2.0.” “I mean, what we are seeing here is, you know, government-run insurance, mandates for businesses, an enormous tax increase, most of which or at least half of which will be paid for by small business owners.” But Pence and the Republicans should actually read the bill before dismissing it. For while the party may oppose the bill’s provisions to tax the top 0.3% of Americans to fund reform or the new fees imposed on the pharmaceutical industry to help close the donut hole in Medicare Part D, on the whole, the 1,990 page bill is a fairly moderate proposal that incorporates numerous conservative policies.

Here are just 10 reasons for why Republicans should support the House health bill:

1. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – DEFICIT NEUTRAL BILL: “Do the American people believe that this almost 2,000 page bill won’t add to the deficit?” [Rep. Eric Cantor, 10/29/2009]

HOUSE BILL – DEFICIT NEUTRAL BILL: According to the Congressional Budget Office, the House bill costs $894 billion over 10 years and actually reduces the deficit by $30 billion and continues to reduce the deficit over the second 10 years.

2. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – REDUCE COSTS OVER LONG TERM: “Nevertheless, House Republicans recognize the need to lower health care costs.” [Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), 9/9/09]

HOUSE BILL – REDUCES COSTS OVER LONG TERM: Encourages payment reforms that can help lower costs. Requires the Department of Health and Human Services to establish specific benchmarks for expansion of the Accountable Care Organization, Payment Bundling, and Medical Home pilot programs. The bill will also slow the rate of growth of the Medicare program from 6.6% annually to 5.3%.

3. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – POLICIES ACROSS STATE LINES: “Interstate competition allowing people to buy insurance across state lines.” [Sen. John Thune (R-SD), 9/8/2009]

HOUSE BILL – POLICIES ACROSS STATE LINES: Allows for the creation of State Health Insurance Compacts – permits states to enter into agreements to allow for the sale of insurance across state lines.

4. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – MEDICAL MALPRACTICE REFORM: “Why not bring about reasonable restrictions and limits on medical malpractice claims to end the era of defensive medicine?” [Rep. Mike Pence (R-IA), 9/9/2009]

HOUSE BILL – ENCOURAGES MALPRACTICE REFORM: The bill establishes a voluntary state incentives grant program to encourage states to implement “certificate of merit” and “early offer” alternatives to traditional medical malpractice litigation.

5. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – HIGH RISK POOLS: “Senator McCain has a proposal sometimes called high-risk pools at the state level…These are efforts I think we can have bipartisan agreement on and deal with the question of pre-existing conditions.” [Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), 9/10/2009]

HOUSE BILL – HIGH RISK POOLS: To fill the gap before the Exchange becomes available in 2013, the bill creates an insurance program with financial assistance for those uninsured for several months or denied policy due to preexisting conditions.

6. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – ALLOW YOUNG PEOPLE TO STAY ON PARENTS’ POLICIES: “Recognizes that not all high school and college graduates are able to find a job that offers health care coverage after graduation. By allowing dependents to remain on their parents’ health policies up to the age of 25, the number of uninsured Americans could be reduced by up to 7 million.” [Republican Health Solutions Group]

HOUSE BILL – ALLOW YOUNG PEOPLE TO STAY ON PARENTS’ POLICIES: The bill requires health plans to allow young people to remain on their parents’ insurance policy until they turn 27.

7. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – NO PUBLIC MONEY FOR ABORTION: “The American people will not stand for government-run insurance that uses taxpayer money to fund abortions in this country.” [Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), 10/16/2009]

HOUSE BILL – NO PUBLIC MONEY FOR ABORTION: The bill prohibits abortion services from being made part of essential benefits package and prohibits federal funds from being used to pay for abortion (except in cases of rape, incest, and to save life of the woman).

8. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – PROTECT SMALL BUSINESSES: “Helps employers offer health care coverage to their workers by reducing their administrative costs through a new small business tax credit.” [Republican Health Solutions Group]

HOUSE BILL – PROTECTS SMALL BUSINESSES: The bill exempts 86% of businesses from the requirement to provide coverage. Businesses with payrolls below $500,000 are exempt while firms with payrolls between $500,000 and $750,000 would pay a graduated penalty. Small businesses would also receive a tax credit that helps cover 50% of their health care expenses.

9. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – PROMOTE JOB WELLNESS PROGRAMS: “Promotes prevention and wellness by giving employers and insurers greater flexibility to financially reward employees who seek to achieve or maintain a healthy weight, quit smoking, and manage chronic illnesses like diabetes.” [Republican Health Solutions Group]

HOUSE BILL – PROMOTE JOB WELLNESS PROGRAMS: The bill establishes a grant program to help small employers create or strengthen workplace wellness programs.

10. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – DELIVERY SYSTEM REFORM: “Uses new and innovative treatment programs to better coordinate care between health
care providers, ensuring that those with chronic disease receive the care they need and do not continue to fall through the cracks.” [Republican Health Solutions Group]

HOUSE BILL – DELIVERY SYSTEM REFORM: The bill requires the Department of Health and Human Services to establish specific benchmarks for the expansion of the Accountable Care Organization, Payment Bundling, and Medical Home pilot programs.

Update

11. REPUBLICANS ASKED FOR – HELP AMERICANS 55-64: “To help those
aged 55 to 64, the plan increases support for pre- and early-retirees with low- and
modest-incomes.” [Republican Health Solutions Group]

HOUSE BILL – HELPS AMERICANS 55-64:: Creates a reinsurance program to help cover expensive health claims for employers that provide coverage to Americans 55-64.

House Health Bill Removes Insurer Anti-Trust Exemption, Taxes Health Industry

PelosiBillThis morning, Speaker Nancy Pelosi will unveil the re-tooled Affordable Health Care for America Act (HR 3962). (Read the bill HERE.) Coming in at around $900 billion over 10 years, the legislation will extend coverage to 36 million Americans (6-7 million more than the Senate Finance version), include a national public option that reimburses physicians at negotiated rates and require individuals to acquire coverage and large employers to provide it. The bill is paid for with a surtax on the wealthy, changes to Medicare and Medicaid, and taxes on the health care industry.

Democrats successfully lowered the price tag of the original House legislation from $1.04 trillion by expanding the Medicaid program to Americans with incomes 150% of the federal poverty line and removing the SGR fix from the bill. “A permanent doc fix will be carved out of the reform bill and introduced separately today without pay-fors,” Live Pulse reports. (Read the SGR bill text HERE)

Most of the bill’s benefits won’t start until 2013 and House leaders are introducing “a temporary government program” that would “help people turned down by private insures because of medical problems.” The Senate Finance bill includes a similar provision, a high-risk pool that would be available to Americans between 2010 and 2013.

The re-tooled House bill will also “strip the health insurance industry of a long-standing exemption from antitrust laws covering market allocation, price fixing and bid rigging” and “give the Federal Trade Commission authority to look into the health insurance industry at its own initiative.”

While Democrats are still negotiating with moderate Democrats over abortion and immigration, Speaker Pelosi hopes to have the legislation on the floor next week, with a final vote before “Veterans Day,” November 11th. At the moment, “House Democrats do not have firm commitment from enough lawmakers to guarantee passage of their bill.” One whip count has shown 23 centrist Democrats intend to vote against any health bill. Assuming that all Republicans vote against it, the bill can lose at least 38 Democrats and still pass the chamber.

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