Our guest blogger is Emma Sandoe, a Health Care Researcher at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Last week, in his invitation to Congressional leaders, President Obama promised to “post online the text of a proposed health insurance reform package.” Expected to be released Monday, 72 hours in advance of the February 25th bipartisan health care summit, the White House proposed reforms will likely be a set of compromises and the best policy ideas taken from the House and Senate passed reform bills.

With members of Congress away during the President’s Day recess, it is likely the package would look more like a collection of general ideas rather than final compromised agreements in legislative text as we have seen in prior bill releases. In recent days, the White House has indicated support for the reconciliation process to pass compromised reforms. So, the differences presented here could create a reconciliation, “fix it” bill to the bill passed by the Senate in December.

Here is what to expect:

– Closing the Doughnut Hole: Midway through the final Senate vote, Democratic Senate leaders promised to include a full closure of the coverage gap in the Medicare prescription drug program. This provision is included in the final House bill, but the Senate bill only begins to make efforts to begin to close it. AARP supported the Senate bill with the understanding the Senate would amend the bill to close the hole.

– Cadillac or Excise Tax Fix: White House aides say the “White House prefers instead to keep the version already agreed upon with unions.” Last month, the White House helped broker a deal between the House and the Senate on the excise tax to protect labor union members’ negotiated health benefits. In recent days, the negotiated deal has lost support among some labor leaders which could lose it support within the House.

– Subsidies: One of the main reasons the House bill is more costly than the Senate version is the greater level of subsidies it gives lower-income individuals. It is important for health insurance to be affordable under the reform proposal and subsidies are a straightforward way of making sure that happens.

– National Exchange: The House pushed hard for this provision last month. It’s sound policy and the President appeared prefer it last month.

– Fixing the Nebraska Deal: The deal to give Nebraska extended Federal Medicaid funds in exchange for Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) vote was never popular with Democrats or Republicans. Now that a reconciliation deal does not hinge on Ben Nelson’s vote, the provision will likely disappear.

What to not expect:

– Public option: The recent resurgence of support of the public option with the letter initiated by Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has been heroic, but in this venue will be a non-starter. This does not preclude the potential addition of a public plan through the reconciliation process at a later point, but it is unlikely the White House will tread on the controversy at this point.

What to watch out for:

– Abortion and Immigration: It will be interesting to see how (or if) the White House handles these issues. On the one hand, not touching abortion and immigration would temporarily sidestep the politically charged arguments that intensified under the debate. However, if the White House wants to present a comprehensive plan that addresses these unresolved issues, it will have to make some choices.

Our guest blogger is Emma Sandoe, a Health Care Researcher at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

An additional 3.28 million Americans enrolled in the Medicaid program for low income individuals last year, as the economic recession shifted many individuals from employer sponsored coverage to public programs — a trend that further underscores the need for health insurance reform.

A report from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that enrollment has grown during each six month period since the beginning of the recession. Nationwide the Medicaid program saw a 7.5 percent increase from 2008 to 2009 and Maryland saw a dramatic 20 percent increase. Maryland Medicaid director, John Folkemer said a majority of the increase “was because of the economy.”

A report issued last year found for every one percent increase in national unemployment, an estimated one million more enroll in the Medicaid and SCHIP program and 1.1 million increase in the uninsured. Unlike other public programs, the rise in the numbers enrolling in Medicaid is largely due to job loss since a majority of health insurance is tied to employment.

The rise in enrollment is crippling the states who are already facing lower revenues due to the economic downturn. The stimulus bill passed last year enhanced the federal share, or FMAP, of the cost in order to alleviate the burden on states, but the increase is expected to expire at the end of the year. States have grown to depend on the increased FMAP to ensure this safety net is available for the lowest income individuals.

Recently, some state legislatures have been pushing hard against health care reform, but reform will benefit states and their Medicaid programs. The health care reform bill contain a variety of incentives to help states maintain an increased federal matching rate. If states allow enrollees to participate in medical home projects, engage in prevention programs, and encourage non-institutionalized long-term care programs the states will see more federal dollars in their Medicaid program. The expansion of the Medicaid program to cover 133 percent of the federal poverty level is fully funded by the Federal government through 2016.

The exchange can also act to stabilize the health insurance marketplace. Subsidies and a competitive marketplace within the exchange can keep insurance more affordable. Since health, by nature, is unpredictable, coverage is not a luxury item that can be eschewed during economic decline. By allowing individuals to maintain health care coverage and taking steps to prevent medical bankruptcy, health care reform would enable residents to weather economic storms such as the one we are currently facing.