Democrats now believe that they have enough votes to pass the Senate health care bill without using the deem and pass rule. Republicans strongly criticized Democrats for planning to use the self-executing rule during today’s Rules Committee hearing, even after Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) implied earlier this afternoon that the party had already abandoned the strategy:

WAXMAN: We’re not going to deem the Senate bill as passed. We’re going to pass the Senate bill. We’re going to pass it by a vote of the House, that’s the way a bill becomes law. You’ll figure out a way to do the rule, but when you establish the rule we will be required to vote for the rule, required to vote for the amendments, an amendment will have to be approved before its carried and the rule approved before it’s approved, that’s the way we operate.

Later in the afternoon, Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) asked Democrats if they would take a separate vote on the Senate health care bill. “I believe that there has been significant discussion. I want to thank the House leadership for indicating to a number of us that that’s exactly what’s going to happen,” Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) explained.

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The last minute change seems to suggest that Democrats expect to have a cushion of votes in the final tally and don’t need to use the rule in order to please members who refuse to directly vote for the Senate bill.

Democrats may have also reached some kind of compromise with pro-life Democrats. Earlier today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced that the House would not vote on a separate side-bar abortion bill, but said that Democrats are “considering winning crucial support from abortion foes for health care overhaul legislation with an executive order by President Barack Obama.” The order – which does not require congressional approval – would be aimed at reflecting long-standing law barring federal aid for abortions except for cases of rape or incest or when the mother’s life is threatened.”

Under the new rule, Democrats would cast three separate votes: a vote on the rule, the reconciliation package and the Senate bill.

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has submitted his public option legislation as an amendment to the Rules Committee. The “Universal Medicare Buy-in Option” — which has been heralded as the next step in health care reform by some progressives — would give all citizens and permanent residents under the age of 65 an opportunity to buy unsubsidized coverage in the Medicare program. Grayson’s amendment has attracted 80 co-sponsors in the House.

It’s unlikely that Grayson’s amendment will be offered on the floor. The rules committee is expected adopt a closed rule prohibiting amendments from being offered on the floor to the reconciliation bill. As Sarah Binder explains, “Republicans relied on closed rules when they controlled the House, a practice they inherited from the Democrats who ruled before them.”

In of itself, the unsubsidized Medicare buy-in would wouldn’t provide an affordable option for most Americans. Clinton era reformers sought to expand the Medicare program but were never able to provide enrollees with affordable premiums on an unsubsidized basis. According to a CBO analysis of a Medicare buy-in for uninsured Americans between 62 and 64 — that group would have to pay a premium plus an administrative fee of 5 percent — “the annual premium for single coverage in 2011 would be about $7,600 (that figure includes the cost of Part D coverage).”