National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar makes the case that “health care is fueling the Democrats’ dismal situation” going into the midterm elections by pointing out that “Democrats who opposed the bill are in surprisingly decent shape,” while those who went along with the White House are in very tight re-election races. When voters in competitive races “were asked an open-ended question about what gives them the biggest pause about voting for their sitting member of Congress, a solid plurality said it was health care – ahead of the economy and jobs,” Krausharr adds.

But if the unpopular legislation contributes to the predicted Democratic loses in the House — a point that is under some contention — it won’t be because the legislation itself is so rotten. Much of the blame should also fall on the Democrats’ failed effort to sell the law and the GOP’s success in tarnishing it.

Yesterday, Greg Sargent pointed out that “opponents of the legislation, including independent groups, have spent $108 million since March to advertise against it” — “six times more than supporters have spent, including $5.1 million by the Department of Health and Human Services to promote the new law.” That $108 million went to finance the false claims that individuals who don’t purchase coverage will go to jail, or sex offenders will have access to government subsidized Viagara and seniors will lose all their Medicare benefits.

As Sargent notes, after the elections, some Democrats will surely argue that the administration overreached in its health care policy, a contention that’s undermined by these ad campaigns and polls which still show that the individual components of the bill are very popular. For instance, last night’s New York Times poll found that 41% of Americans thought Republicans should repeal the law, but that number dropped to 25% when the respondent was told that “repealing the law meant that insurance companies were no longer required to cover people with existing medical conditions.” Forty-six percent of respondents also said that “the Democratic party is more likely to improve the health care system,” while just 28 percent thought Republicans were.

I’ve debunked Sen. Judd Gregg’s (R-NH) entire Halloween-themed health care editorial here‘ before, but since he’s now expanding on his claims about the causes of rising health insurance premiums, it’s important to give his comments some more play — if only to highlight how far off the ledge he’s fallen.

Last night, Gregg told Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren, “You’re seeing a massive increase in premium costs, some driven by the cost of health care generally, but a lot driven by the cost of the regulations in this new program.” The deliberate use of “some” and “a lot” suggests that the health care law is driving up premiums faster than health care inflation — an argument that’s so unbelievably false that even the health insurance lobbyists are unwilling to make it:

Robert Zirkelbach of the insurance industry trade group America’s Health Insurance Plans concedes that, despite what some have claimed, the law isn’t the major driver of premium increases for next year. “In fact, the evidence is very clear that the rise in medical costs is a key factor in driving up health insurance premiums,” he says.

But, Zirkelbach says, in some cases, premiums could rise significantly because of new benefits the law requires.

“Many people already have the new benefits that are required in the law as part of their current benefit packages,” he says. “So they’re not going to see [nearly as much of] an impact as people who have chosen less comprehensive policies in exchange for a lower monthly premium.”

On the other hand, Zirkelbach says, “for those people who have less comprehensive benefit packages today, they’re going to see a much larger impact in their premium as a result of health care reform.”

In other words — in a rare glimmer of truth that Zirkelbach’s boss AHIP President and CEO seemed unwilling to concede last month — premiums are increasing for the exact opposite reason than Gregg is suggesting. The new consumer protections in the health care law are at most responsible for one to two percent of the increases; the rest is due to health care inflation and the poor economy. And this is something Gregg has actually admitted before. During an appearance on Fox Business last week, Gregg said, ”Premiums went up by an average of eight to nine percent, it’s estimated that one to two percent of that is directly a result of the health care bill.”

So there you have it. The GOP final health care talking points are so extreme, they have to be reigned in by the very health insurance lobbyists who helped them spin these arguments in the first place.