New projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Wednesday reveals that immigration will overtake natural increase (in other words, births minus deaths) as the leading cause of U.S. population increase for the first time in almost two centuries. Three contributing factors to the population increase takeover include declining fertility rates, an aging baby boomer population, and continued immigration.
The Census Bureau presents three scenarios different only on the “level of net international migration they assume.” In every scenario, the minority immigrant population would become the driver of population growth sometime between 2027 and 2038. As shown, the “middle series” assumes a consistent flow of 725,000 between 2012 to 2060.
In the “low series” projection, annual levels of would increase net immigration from 700,000 in 2012 to 824,000 by 2060. The “high series” graph would increase from 747,000 in 2012 to 1.6 million by 2060. The high series estimate also projects that the “single-race white” population will be in the minority by 2041.
The influx of legal immigrants from comprehensive immigration reform will provide a net benefit of $410 billion over the next 50 years, according to actuary data gathered by Social Security at the behest of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). Nearly 6.6 million more workers will be paying Social Security taxes which would allow immigrants to continue helping to keep the Social Security Trust Fund solvent for the aging baby boomer population and contribute to the economy. As a result, making many immigrants into newly legalized taxpayers would directly counter so-called costs that immigration opponents claim burdens the system.