Lez Get Real is reporting that of the “40,000 of the surveys that the Pentagon sent out to servicemembers have been completed since they were emailed out on 7 July to a mixture of active duty and reserve personnel.” “That is roughly ten percent of the 400,000 that they sent out, and Department of Defense officials need to hear from the rest regarding the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell“:

The 200,000 active duty, and like number of Guard and Reserve, personnel have until 15 August to return the completed survey. The participants were selected randomly. Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the Defense Department needs objective information and that the survey is the only way to get that. He emphasized that no one is drawing conclusions about the survey until it is finished. Admiral Mullen stated “To reach out at this point and try to predict either what they might say or what the results might say, I just think it’s too early with respect to that.” Unfortunately for Admiral Mullen, the survey may not bring in a large number of recipients due to a number of problems associated with online surveys. The number of turn ins have probably not been helped by the negative publicity that has surrounded the survey.

I wasn’t sure what to make of this news and unsure if the 40,000 surveys are a statistically significant amount from which the military can then extrapolate and reach some conclusions. Ryan McNeely tells me that it depends if the 40,000 represent a cross section of the 400,000 servicemembers or if those people were more likely to respond for some other unrelated reason. Without knowing that, it’s difficult to say if the results are representative of the force as a whole.

The point is that the servicemembers have until August 15th to fill out the survey and the Pentagon is encouraging them to do just that. The Defense Department disputes the 10% figure and says that the survey had to overcome several technical issues which has now resulted in an uptick of responses. They’re not putting out a specific number about what they expect the take-up to be or what they’ll consider “statistically significant,” but given that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates personally doubled the sample size, they seem intent on at least giving everyone the opportunity to weigh in on this, even if they won’t. And that’s of course precisely the problem with this kind of open-ended questionnaire: the only people who write back are those with the most extreme views and you end up knowing nothing about what the so-called “moderate middle” thinks. So who those 40,000 people are and how much weight the Pentagon lends to their opinions are all very significant.

In April 2009, the Iowa Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriages over the objections of conservative activists, who predicted that gay people would undermine the institution. Now, one year later, preliminary data from the Iowa Department of Public Health finds that marriage rates are up and divorces are down:

- Iowa posted the lowest number of divorces since 1970.

- 21,139 marriages occurred in Iowa last year – the most since 2000 and the first increase since 2005. The 1,573 jump in marriages over 2008 included the first-ever same-gender unions.

- 2,020 same-sex couples – 728 male partners and 1,292 female partners — were married during that time span while 16,869 opposite-gender marriages were recorded.

It’s unclear to what extent same-sex unions are responsible for the spike — the economic downturn also contributed to the statistical change — but what is certain is that the doomsday predictions of extending marriage to same-sex couples are as unfounded in Iowa as they are in Massachusetts. Change.org’s Michael Jones points out that Massachusetts — which extended marriage to same-sex couples in 2004– recorded the “the lowest divorce rates in the entire country.” “In fact, divorce numbers were so low in the Bay State last year, they rivaled statistics stemming all the way back to World War II.”

Allowing gay people to marry will certainly lead to more marriages, but I suspect that the future of the institution is shaped by far more complicated economic and social factors. If the family values groups are so convinced that marriage is the most effective social arrangement for children and adults, they should probably spend most of their time dealing with those factors rather than trying to prevent people from entering into the institution. But then again, that kind of work would create far less sensationalism, fear, or donor dollars.

The National Organization For Marriage (NOM) has embarked on a disastrous 23-city “Summer for Marriage Tour 2010,” spreading the gospel of one-man-one-woman marriage to tens of supporters and encountering well organized counter protests in almost every city. Yesterday, the The Bilerico Project’s Bil Browning attended a NOM rally in Indianapolis, Indiana and found that while “over 250 LGBT and allied folks protested the rally,” “only 40 fundies showed up.” Among the small crowd of so-called traditional marriage supporters was a man holding a sign reminiscent of the Jim Crowe era. It showed two yellow nooses and a bible passage suggesting that gay couples should be put to death:

Over NOM’s objections, a NOM tour tracker from the Courage Campaign interviewed Larry Adams, the man holding the sign, who revealed that he had struggled with homosexual tendencies before discovering the bible:

NOM STAFFER TO ADAMS: We don’t want anything inflammatory, we’re here in love. [...]

ADAMS: If homosexuality was punished like it was supposed to be, there wouldn’t be so much homosexuality out here….

COURAGE CAMPAIGN: Have you ever had that temptation?

ADAMS: Oh yea…I know it is from the devil so I avoided it….I was all confused myself until about 40 years old and started reading the bible…and now I know what’s right and what’s wrong. The bible says, then I believe it.

Watch it:

Ironically, NOM has been portraying itself as a victim of LGBT activists who claim that the group’s supporters are bigoted or intolerant. During an interview on the Lars Larson show on Thursday — before the Indiana rally — former NOM CEO Maggie Gallagher said she was “really proud of our supporters.” ” If you look at the tape, they remain very peaceful and prayerful and respectful of the law, because that’s who our people are.” LGBT activists “want us treated like racists in the public square and it’s wrong and it should stop.”

Gallagher also criticized LGBT leaders for failing to condemn the counter protesters’ “disruptive” tactics. “I mean, what kind of people do that, first of all, and what kind of movement doesn’t step up and say, ‘No, this isn’t what our movement is about.’