On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) echoed Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) concerns about the soon-to-be-released Pentagon study of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, predicting that there isn’t “anywhere near the votes to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.” “On the Republican side, I think we will be united in the lame duck [session] and the study I would be looking for is asking military members: Should it be repealed, not how to implement it once you as a politician decide to repeal it,” he said, adding, “So I think in a lame duck setting Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell is not going anywhere.”

But a cursory examination of Graham’s past public statements about DADT repeal suggest that the above comments represent a serious rhetorical shift. Graham has previously argued that he was open to repeal if the military supported lifting the ban. Now, he’s criticizing the very same study he said he was waiting to see and review before reaching a decision and he’s making that argument on the eve of the study’s release, as the Pentagon lavishes praise on the ‘comprehensive’ nature of the review:

July 2009: “‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ is a policy I think has served the country well,” said South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham, a prosecutor in the Air Force Reserve. “Why should we change it? I’m not going to be persuaded to change military policy by a bunch of political activists. If the military leadership tells me that ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ needs to be changed, I’ll certainly be open-minded to that.”

October 2009: “They [military] should be included in this,” said Graham. “I am open-minded to what the military may suggest, but I can tell you, I’m not going to make policy based on a campaign rally.”

February 2010: “Statutory changes to Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, I think, are ill advised until the military has a chance to tell us what works and what doesn’t.”

May 2010: “I do not support the idea of repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell before our military members and commanders complete their review. This so-called compromise would repeal the legislation first then receive input from the military. This is not the proper way to change any policy, particularly something as controversial as Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”

Graham is likely offering McCain cover for opposing repeal and is trying to line-up support in the GOP caucus, despite the Pentagon’s endorsement of the review and the servicemembers’ strong support for ending the policy. As Secretary of Defense Robert Gates explained to McCain, “The Chairman and I fully support the approach and the efforts of the working group, as do the Service Chiefs. We are confident that the working group’s report will provide us with the information we need to appropriately advise the President, and, if requested to do so, to provide our fully informed views to Congress as it considers legislative action.”

Graham’s rhetoric may also serve as preview of some of the arguments moderate lawmakers — who promised to review the study before voting on repeal — will make to substantiate their ‘no’ votes. They’ll claim that the study was flawed from the very beginning, suddenly closing their “open” minds about repeal.

As President Obama met with the Service Chiefs to discuss the repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and tomorrow’s release of the Pentagon’s 10-month report into the matter, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs predicted the administration didn’t “anticipate that the release of the report will do anything but strengthen” the legislative case for repeal, but stopped short of saying that Obama would use the report to lobby undecided Senators on the issue.

Gibbs, who also said that the President had seen parts of the DADT report, made the comments in reply to questions from the Washington Blade’s Chris Johnson:

GIBBS: I believe the President has seen part of [the report]…I think the President strongly believed that this was an issue that can and should be solved legislatively, encourage the Senate to act legislatively on the Defense Authorization bill and particularly on changing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. That’s our position now and I don’t believe the release of the report will do anything but strengthen that case.

Watch it:

While it’s unclear if the report — which has found that the majority of troops don’t oppose repealing the ban — will convince the Chiefs and undecided lawmakers to support repeal, it’s at least reassuring to note that three of the four Chiefs and undecided Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) have praised the review. Navy chief Adm. Gary Roughead and Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz have publicly endorsed the comprehensive nature of the review and Marine Commandant Gen. James Amos — who has expressed concerns about the “risk” of repeal — also predicted that the Pentagon’s review of the policy would inform the military about how best to implement a repeal and allow the Marines Corp to change the policy “smartly.” Webb said, “I can’t remember a study on this type of issue that has been done with this sort of care. Not even having seen it or knowing the results, but I know the preparation that went into it. So it’s going to be a very important study for us to look at and examine.”

When he was running for Senate, Mark Kirk (R-IL) — a Naval Reserve officer — said that he had not served alongside any gay servicemembers during his 21-years in the military, but suggested that he may be open to repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell if the Pentagon’s Working Group study showed that reversing the ban would have no adverse consequences. But this morning — as he prepared for tonight’s swearing-in — Kirk hinted that he would not support ending the ban during the lame-duck session of Congress:

KIRK ON FNC: Well, they’ll probably do an omnibus spending bill and I hope that we complete our actions to ban all earmarks. Then, this Congress should go home. The current majority has lost the election and I think we should reserve the big decisions to the new Congress because they have a new mandate from the American people.

KIRK ON MSNBC: Then there is the question of, what is the proper role of the lame-duck Congress? We have dozens of Congressmen and Senators who are defeated by the American people. I think we should make a very limited set of decisions and then let the new Congress, that has a fresh mandate form the American people, take office and make the bigger decisions.

Watch it:

But given the GOP’s resistance in considering DADT in the new Congress, the next two weeks represent the best chance for repealing the policy and Kirk’s insistence on putting off the measure means that Democrats will now need the votes of two Republicans “to reach the 60-vote threshold” to move forward on the legislation.

Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL), who has held the seat, has been a strong proponent of repeal and voted against the ban in September.

Meanwhile, Joe Sudbay points out that Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AK), who was one of two Democrats along with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AK) to vote against repeal in September, is likely to do so again. Pryor told the Democrat-Gazette that “the armed services should deliberate a bit longer before making any policy changes.’ He also said he doesn’t want to be ‘judgmental,’ although ‘he said he considers homosexuality a sin.’”