The take away from Amanda Terkel’s piece on the outlook for LGBT initiatives for the next two years is that most of the action will be happening in the states and the courts, since the Republican majority in the 112th Congress is showing little interest in taking up equality legislation:

One branch of government that could hold major victories (or upsets) for the LGBT community: the judicial system. There currently are two major cases making their way through the courts, one challenging the constitutionality of DOMA, the other the constitutionality of California’s same-sex marriage ban. Either could end up at the Supreme Court.

There will also be action at the state level, with Maryland, New York and Rhode Island looking to advance marriage equality bills, and states like Tennessee, Arizona and Florida likely considering legislation to restrict adoption rights for same-sex parents.

To be sure, LGBT activists will still be pushing smaller initiatives like the Elementary and Secondary Education Act to address bullying and harassment, the Older Americans Act and the Tax Equity for Health Plan Beneficiaries Act, but the larger big ticket items (ENDA, DOMA) are on hold — at least temporarily. Equality groups now have a real opportunity to build awareness of these initiatives and work to support (or protect) the expansion of LGBT equality in the states.

As Terkel points out, Rhode Island and Maryland are poised to pass marriage-equality bills and Hawaii may very well secure a civil unions legislation. While the new Republican Governor in Iowa doesn’t seem very interested in recalling the remaining pro-marriage judges, Republicans in the New Hampshire legislature could have the two-thirds majority necessary to override Gov. John Lynch’s veto of a bill to repeal same-sex marriage, and Republican legislators in Wyoming could reintroduce a defense of marriage law that would bar the state from recognizing same-sex marriages from other states. Still, with support for equality steadily rising, it’s unclear how eager Republicans will be in litigating an anti-gay agenda. One would only hope that elected Democrats — I’m looking at you President Obama — will start using the increasing support to speak out in favor of an equality agenda.

The Family Research Council and a few other social conservative organizations like Concerned Women for America, American Principles Project and American Values are refusing to attend next month’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to protest the participation GOProud, a gay rights group. But Focus on Family is staying put, at least for now:

“They made a mistake,” CitizenLink spokesman Tom Minnery said Tuesday of the conference organizer, The American Conservative Union. “We’re not happy about it. We’ve got to see a better result next year or our participation is in doubt.”

Minnery said he believes discussions are underway to change the situation for next year.

“We’re encouraged to stick it out this year,” Minnery said. “It’s important for organizations like ours, for social conservatives, to be involved in the conversation.”

GOProud will be a “participating organization,” at the conference, “the second highest level of participation and will have a voice in planning the conference.” All this is too much for some conservative attendees, who are interpreting the group’s inclusion as an abandonment of conservative principles. “By bringing in GOProud, CPAC was effectively saying moral opposition to homosexuality is no longer welcome in the conservative movement,” Americans for Truth about Homosexuality president Peter LaBarbera, said. Mat Staver, president of Liberty Counsel, concurs, “We said GOProud is not a conservative organization. They are undermining the military” by promoting open homosexuality, and “undermining marriage” by opposing the Defense of Marriage Act, which preserves the traditional definition of marriage by limiting it to one man and one woman. The conservative news site WorldNetDaily, a major cheerleader for the groups boycotting CPAC, is even “giving right wing activist Frank Gaffney a platform to charge the ACU with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical Islamist group.”

Last year, David Keene, the head of CPAC’s main organizing group, tried to calm a very similar boycott by assuring conservatives that GOProud would not have a speaking spot and that gay rights issues would not be “open to debate.” CPAC has historically focused less on far-right social priorities than other conservative conferences, but the presence of GOProud at last year’s event caused somewhat of a civil war among the attendees. A speaker who thanked the organizers for allowing GOProud to co-sponsor the conference was met with angry boos and heckling from the audience. A few minutes later, another activist slammed GOProud and engaged in a hostile shouting match with pro-gay rights students in the audience. Watch that exchange here.

South Florida Gay News is reporting that newly-inaugurated Florida Gov. Rick Scott is kicking off his term by issuing a narrow non-discrimination order for state employees. Executive Order 11-04 address only race, gender, creed, color and national origin and ignores the existing protections in the Florida Civil Rights Act, which prohibit discrimination based on “race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, handicap, or marital status.”

In anticipation of the order — which is customary amongst governors — the Palm Beach County Human Rights Council urged Scott to adopt comprehensive anti-discrimination protections that went beyond current Florida law and included protections for “sexual orientation, gender identity or expression.” But Scott fell short of the existing protections. “Governor Scott’s limited view of diversity is very discouraging,” Rand Hoch, President of the Council told the Miami Herald, setting a less than welcome tone from the new administration. The order does not negate the existing Florida law, but acts as a statement of administration policy and intent. “It’s a message to us that it’s not going to be a gay friendly administration in Tallahassee,” Hoch told me in a phone interview and suggested that Scott’s order sets the state back decades. The Act was last amended in 1992 to prohibit discrimination against marital status — a protection Scott did not include. Meanwhile, the Council has been urging the Florida government — including former Governor Charlie Christ — to add sexual orientation to the list of protected peoples.

Scott positioned himself as a social conservative during his election campaign, although he rarely addressed equality issues on the stump. He reiterating his support for the state’s now defunct anti-gay adoption law, saying he opposed to “single sex adoption” and insisting that “Children should be raised in a home with a married man and a woman.” His campaign website also says that marriage should be between one man and one woman. During his well publicized brawl with primary challenger and former Attorney General Bill McCollum, Scott attacked McCollum for endorsing the “pro-homosexual rights candidate Rudy Giuliani for president in 2008.″

New Mexico may soon join the ranks of New York, Rhode Island and Maryland as states that don’t perform same-sex marriages, but recognize gay couples married in other states, according to an opinion issued by attorney general Gary King. “While we cannot predict how a New Mexico court would rule on this issue, after review of the law in this area, it is our opinion that a same-sex marriage that is valid under the laws of the country or state where it was consummated would likewise be found valid in New Mexico,” King said:

As discussed above, the federal DOMA authorizes states to prohibit the recognition of out-of-state, same-sex marriages. While many states have enacted such a prohibition, New Mexico has not. Without an explicit statute, the principle of comity, codified in New Mexico in Section 40-1-4, would likely guide the analysis in this area. In Leszinske and Gallegos, New Mexico courts recognized out-of-state marriages pursuant to Section 40-1-4, despite state laws that would have precluded those marriages from being performed in New Mexico. Likewise, the Attorney General of Maryland concluded that Maryland would likely recognize an out-of-state, same-sex marriage despite a state law that precludes same-sex marriages. Although such state laws indicate an adverse public policy against certain marriages, they are not enough to invoke the public policy exception.

Although New Mexico does not expressly prohibit same-sex marriages, a previous Attorney General issued an advisory letter on this issue….According to the letter, state statutes that refer to a “husband” and a “wife” and the state marriage application form requiring a male and female applicant, suggested that the law in New Mexico contemplates that marriage will between a man and a woman. In light of Leszinske, Gallegos, and the general law surrounding the public policy exception, we do not believe that the reasoning in the advisory letter is enough to establish a strong or overriding public policy against same-sex marriages in New Mexico. Without an identifiable adverse public policy in this area, we conclude that a court addressing the issue would likely hold, pursuant to Section 40-1-4, that a valid same-sex marriage from another jurisdiction is valid in New Mexico.

Five states and Washington D.C. are currently issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples, and several others may consider the issue in this legislative session. “This increases the likelihood that New Mexico residents of the same sex who married while traveling or who move to New Mexico after marrying in a jurisdiction that allows same-sex marriages will seek to have their marriages recognized in this state,” King concluded.

It’s unlikely that King’s opinion will change state policy, however. New Mexico’s new governor, Susanna Martinez, opposes same-sex marriage and has not been moved by King’s analysis. “Gov. Martinez made it clear during the campaign that she opposes same-sex marriage. It’s important to note that no New Mexico court has ruled on this issue,” a spokesperson told The New Mexican. State Senator William Share (R) also plans to introduce a constitutional amendment “during the upcoming legislative session to define marriage as between a man and woman.”

Former Governor Bill Richardson, was unsuccessful in getting a domestic partnership bill through the legislature.