Shortly before the US Supreme Court heard arguments to strike down restrictions on same-sex marriage, the Republican National Committee outraged hardline conservatives with a report calling for greater flexibility on gay rights and immigration reform in order to lure young people into the Republican Party. GOP strategist Karl Rove piled on the insult by speculating the Republican Party’s next presidential candidate could support marriage equality (though later walked it back). Evangelical leaders erupted in protest, threatening to abandon the GOP if the party were to change its increasingly unpopular stance.

The tide is changing rapidly against this so-called evangelical base of the GOP. Last week, Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) became the first sitting Republican senator to declare his support for marriage equality. While a majority of all Republicans still oppose same-sex marriage, a new poll found that 49 percent of Republicans under 50 years old actually support extending the right to marry to same-sex couples.

Below are a few of the social conservatives the GOP would have to do without if they abandoned their opposition to same-sex marriage:

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)

“They might [decide to support same-sex marriage], and if they do, they’re going to lose a large part of their base because evangelicals will take a walk. And it’s not because there’s an anti-homosexual mood, and nobody’s homophobic that I know of, but many of us, and I consider myself included, base our standards not on the latest Washington Post poll, but on an objective standard, not a subjective standard. If we have subjective standards, that means that we’re willing to move our standards based on the prevailing whims of culture.” [3/20/2013]

Tony Perkins, president of Family Research Council

“The vast majority of the GOP base believes that marriage is a non-negotiable plank of the national platform. Anything less, writes Byron York, ‘could come back to haunt the RNC in the not-too-distant future.’ [...] If the RNC abandons marriage, evangelicals will either sit the elections out completely – or move to create a third party. Either option puts Republicans on the path to a permanent minority. [3/19/2013]

Gary Bauer, former presidential candidate

“Shame on the politicians and the judges that are trying to undermine the institution of marriage. I’m a Republican…let me say to my party: if you bail out on this issue, I will leave the party and I will take as many people as I possibly can.” [3/26/2013]

Watch it:

Mat Staver, Liberty Counsel chairman

“If worst case scenario the last week of June we come down with a bad decision, the church and people of faith and values need to rise up. We just simply cannot allow this to become the law of the land, it will fundamentally change who we are, it will fundamentally weaken the family and religious freedom will be in the crosshairs. [3/26/2013]

Rush Limbaugh, talk radio host

“If the party makes that [gay marriage] something official that they support, they’re not going to pull the homosexual activist voters away from the Democrat Party, but they are going to cause their base to stay home and throw their hands up in utter frustration…Whether they like it or not, the Republican Party’s base is sufficiently large that they cannot do without them and their problem is they don’t like them. It really isn’t any more complicated than that.” [3/18/2013]

The growing right-wing schism was on full display at CPAC earlier this month, when organizers disinvited the gay conservative group GOProud to appease anti-gay board members. The decision to exclude GOProud sparked protests among prominent conservative commentators worried about the GOP’s flailing outreach efforts to more socially liberal minorities like women and young people.

Still, evangelicals and social conservatives have little cause to worry. Though public opinion on gay rights is evolving rapidly, the Republican Party does not plan to change their stance on marriage equality anytime soon. The RNC’s report, while encouraging outreach to Latinos, blacks, women, and young people, notably excluded the gay community from the list. Rather than disavow exclusionary and discriminatory policies enshrined in their platform, the current GOP strategy is to sugarcoat their anti-gay rhetoric in hopes that young voters will overlook their true intentions.

While New York State Sen. Rubén Díaz (D) was leading the anti-marriage equality march on the National Mall yesterday, his son, Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr. (D), was probably penning the final words for his statement endorsing marriage equality.

On Wednesday, the junior Díaz released a long and personal statement announcing his support for same-sex marriage, which has been the national focus this week as the Supreme Court debates the constitutionality of both the Defense of Marriage Act and Proposition 8:

“My decision, which comes after years of thought and reflection on the issue, is informed by the experiences I have had with close friends, family and loved ones.

“For example, my chief-of-staff, Paul Del Duca, has for decades worked to help the people of this City. He has helped people find housing and jobs, he has dedicated his professional life to assisting those in need. Why, then, should he and his partner Damion—whose wedding I stood witness to—be denied the same rights of any other loving and committed couple? Moreover, why should my niece, Erica Diaz, be denied the ability to get married when her time comes?

“When marriage equality was made legal in 2011, many opponents predicted that it would have negative consequences. That has certainly not been the case. It is my contention that our city and our state are better off than they were before marriage equality became the law. Not only has our city seen an incredible financial impact from marriage equality, the quality of life for myself, my family and my friends has not suffered one bit.”

Díaz, Jr.’s statement stands in stark contrast to the comments from his father, who has vowed to lead a “war” on same-sex marriages, and has embraced the support of a woman who declared homosexuality more threatening than terrorism and a minister who said gays are worthy of death.

This won’t be the first Díaz family rift. The senior Díaz has continued to disparage marriage equality, even as he acknowledges that he has a gay brother and nephew, and a lesbian granddaughter who has openly condemned him. Still, the State Sen. insists, “We have a very loving family… I love them. They love me. We help each other.”

Tennessee has been a toxic place on issues of sex and gender recently, with the University of Tennessee recently caving to Fox News’ complaints and cutting funding for students’ “Sex Week” programming. This week there was some good news, however, because two anti-gay pieces of legislation died in committee.

The first was the odious “Don’t Say Gay” bill, which was originally designed to censor school officials and teachers from discussing homosexuality in grades K-8. Versions introduced this year included requirements that school counselors out LGBT students to their families or prevent counselors from providing mental health services whatsoever. The bill did not receive a second when it was moved in the House Education Subcommittee and subsequently died. State Rep. John Ragan (R), who sponsored the bill because “it was about school safety,” has promised to reintroduce it next year.

Another bill targeted institutions of higher education, threatening to cut support for campus police if universities required student groups to abide by “all-comers” nondiscrimination policies. The intention behind such measures, like one recently passed in Virginia, is to allow Christian groups to discriminate against gay students. Tennessee Attorney General Robert Cooper (D) called the bill unconstitutional and Gov. Bill Haslam (R) said he saw no reason to have the bill considered. Last year, he vetoed a similar bill targeting university nondiscrimination statements. The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Mark Pody (R), took the bill “off notice,” killing it, but his apparent vendetta against Vanderbilt University’s “all-comers” policy suggests this isn’t the last of his efforts.

The death of these two bills is a nice reprieve for Tennessee’s LGBT community, but it seems neither of these fights is permanently over.

Among the speakers at Tuesday’s anti-gay Marriage March was National Organization for Marriage spokesperson Jennifer Roback Morse, who heads up NOM’s Ruth Institute. Morse has a reputation of saying horrid things about gay people and young people’s perceptions of LGBT issues, and she did not disappoint at the rally. Stoking fears that same-sex marriage has some kind of unforeseen experiences, she attempted to speak on behalf of the children of same-sex couples, claiming they would resent their parents for depriving them of a parent of the opposite gender:

MORSE: Eventually, young people are going to see that redefining marriage sets aside the interests of children for the convenience of adults. Now in the unhappy event that the Court should redefine marriage, which we pray that they will not — we pray that they will allow us to continue this nationwide conversation and discussion that we desperately need to have. But if they do redefine marriage, 40 years from the young people of that generation will have one simply question for our generation, “What were you thinking?”

They’re going to say, “Dad, you and your partner are lovely guys, I love you Dad, but did you really think I would never need a mom? What were you thinking?” “Mom, I know you love me, you and your partner are nice ladies, but the biological connection that was so important to you — did you think it would never be important to me? What were you thinking? What were you thinking?” That’s what they’re going to ask us.

Watch it (via RightWingWatch):

Actually, same-sex marriage is in the best interest of the many children already being raised by same-sex couples. And usually, they call both dads “Dad” or both moms “Mom,” and they wouldn’t have to say “partner” to describe a husband and a wife. Morse clearly demonstrates that she has little understanding or empathy for same-sex families. Oddly, NOM does not actively campaign against same-sex adoption even though the well-being of children is supposedly at the core of the arguments against marriage equality.

The Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins compared same-sex marriage to polygamy just minutes after the Supreme Court finished hearing a constitutional challenge to a law that denies equal federal benefits to same-sex couples who are legally married under state law.

Appearing on MSNBC, Perkins — whose organization is labeled as a “hate group” by the Southern Poverty Law Center — argued that if the court strikes down the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, immigrants would be able to bring multiple spouses into the country:

PERKINS: As you set up this package interview, people ought to be able to marry who they love. If love becomes a definition of what the boundaries of marriage are, how do we define that going forward? What if someone wants to immigrate to this country from a country that allows multiple spouses? Right now they can’t immigrate with the spouses, but if the parameter are simply love, how do we prohibit them from coming into this country? If it’s all about just love, as it’s being used, where do we set the lines?

Watch it:

Asked to defend the comparison by reporter Luke Russert, Perkins explained that he was not likening gay people to polygamists, but only warning about a slippery slope.

Two new polls confirm that a significant majority of Americans want the Supreme Court to overturn the Defense of Marriage Act so that same-sex couples can access the federal benefits associated with marriage. In fact, even some voters who oppose marriage equality itself feel that DOMA is bad law.

For example, a new poll from CNN/ORC International shows that 56 percent of Americans believe the federal government should recognize any same-sex marriage that is legal in the states, while 43 percent disagree. This is three points higher than CNN’s poll released last week, which found that 53 percent support marriage equality and 44 percent oppose it.

A similar poll from CBS News found an even more favorable result: 60 percent believe believe the federal government should recognize same-sex marriage while only 35 percent disagree. Nevertheless, CBS polling also found that 53 percent support full marriage equality and 39 percent oppose it. Only 36 percent believe having same-sex relations between consenting adults is wrong.

As the oral arguments wrap up today, it’s clear that an overwhelming number of Americans appreciate that denying married same-sex couples federal benefits just isn’t fair.

This week’s marriage equality arguments at the Supreme Court have catalyzed an avalanche of new support from Democratic Senators who previously were tentative about supporting the freedom to marry. The latest is Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC), who is ready to “move forward with this issue“:

HAGAN: I know there are strong feelings on both sides, and I have a great deal of respect for their opinions, but after much thought and prayer on my part this is where I am today.

I know all our families do not look alike. We all want the same thing for our families. We want happiness, we want health, prosperity, a bright future for our children and grandchildren. After conversations I’ve had with family members, with people I go to church with and with North Carolinians from all walks of life, I’ve come to my own personal conclusion that we should not tell people who they can love, or who they can marry. It’s time to move forward with this issue.

When North Carolina was considering a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil unions last year, Hagan spoke out against the measure but stopped short of supporting full marriage equality.

At this point, only nine Democratic Senators remain who have not expressed full support for same-sex marriage: Mark Pryor (AR), Bob Casey (PA), Bill Nelson (FL), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Manchin (WV), Mary Landrieu (LA), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Joe Donnelly (IN), and Tim Johnson (SD). Johnson indicated this week that he does oppose the Defense of Marriage Act, but he has not spoken out for full marriage equality.

Though opponents of marriage equality concluded their rallying on Tuesday, advocates for same-sex marriage are back outside the Supreme Court rallying again this morning as the Justices hear oral arguments on the Defense of Marriage Act.  Like on Tuesday, many witty, thoughtful, and heartfelt signs can be found throughout the crowd promoting LGBT equality:

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As the Supreme Court weighed the constitutionality of California’s same-sex marriage ban, Proposition 8, the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) held a three-hour long rally justifying their opposition. One speaker, Bishop Harry Jackson Jr, argued that same-sex marriage was actually an attack on low-income urban communities. Jackson claimed that “urban America” could be “healed” by promoting heterosexual marriages because, he alleges, heterosexual marriages have less poverty, less domestic violence, and “sexual abuse does not happen.”

God has given us a blueprint for how to have success in the earthly realm. He’s given us an architectural plan of how to heal the barren places in urban America. He says that marriage between a man and a woman will heal the desert places in urban America. Ghettos will be revitalized if one man, one woman families are the order of the day. When a man and a woman are in the house, poverty is lessened. When a man and a woman are in the house, kids don’t go to prison. When a man and a woman are in the house, there’s less domestic violence. When a man and a woman are in the house, sexual abuse does not happen.

Watch it:

In a highlight reel of their rally, NOM selectively edited Bishop Jackson’s remarks to cut him off a half-second before his assertion that sexual abuse “does not happen” in straight marriages.

For decades, NOM and other anti-marriage equality advocates have routinely promoted bogus claims that homosexuality is linked to pedophilia and sexual abuse. In fact, there is absolutely no evidence that gay individuals commit more sexual assaults than straight people. Same-sex relationships face roughly the same domestic violence rate as straight couples. Jackson’s assertion that “sexual abuse does not happen” in heterosexual homes is also blatantly false; more than 50 percent of all sexual assault incidents take place in or within a mile of the home.

The claim that heterosexual marriage lessens poverty and crime compared to same-sex marriage is also false. Two-parent households fare slightly better in these areas than single-parent homes. There is no evidence that the sexual orientation of the parents has any impact, nor that single parenthood is the cause and not a by-product for these trends.

Jackson has been paid handsomely to push these myths as part of NOM’s race-wedging strategy. The organization has openly admitted to their intent to co-opt religious African Americans, specifically Church of God in Christ bishops like Jackson, by making the case that marriage equality is somehow harmful to minority communities.

House Republicans have paid former U.S. Solicitor General Paul Clement $3 million to defend the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act, but as the legal challenge is heard at Supreme Court on Wednesday morning, GOP leaders have remained silent on the matter.

In 2011, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) convened the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group (BLAG) and voted to direct the Office of General Counsel to defend DOMA, which prohibits the federal government from recognizing same-sex marriages. The decision came shortly after President Obama’s Department of Justice announced that it could not defend the unconstitutional measure.

But in light of growing public support for marriage equality, prominent Republicans have been hesitant to discuss the law publicly. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) have yet to issue a press release or Tweet in favor of DOMA and a Nexis search conducted on Wednesday morning showed that neither man has provided quotes to the media (though Boehner briefly addressed the matter last week, when confronted by a reporter). On Wednesday, GOP leadership wouldn’t appear in an NPR story about a case, refusing to explain why they’re spending millions in tax payer dollars. As NPR’s Nina Totenberg reported:

Those defending the law have been strangely unwilling to make their arguments outside court. Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) declined to be interviewed for this broadcast, as did Clement and leading House members who voted for the law.

Since Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) became the first sitting GOP senator to embrace marriage equality, top Republicans have admitted that conservatives have lost the battle against same-sex marriage, noting that young voters overwhelmingly support the freedom to marry. Indeed, a recent poll found that 52 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters under 50 now support same-sex marriage, as do 81 percent of Republicans under 30.

(Photo Credit: Center for American Progress Action Fund intern Andrew Rutkowski.)

Yesterday, the National Organization for Marriage held its long-heralded Marriage March and rally to oppose same-sex marriage on the National Mall. A litany of speakers reiterated claims about children’s need for one mother and one father, but the event largely failed to amass a wide coalition.

NOM’s Thomas Peters claimed there were 15,000 attendees, while Brian Brown suggested a crowd of “more than 10,000,” but these seem to be gross overestimates. RightWingWatch’s Peter Montgomery suggested it was no more than “several thousand,” while the Washington Blade only estimated 2,000. What groups there were seemed to come in clumps from very specific origins, such as the 32 buses of conservative Hispanics that New York state Sen. Rubén Díaz (D) brought from the Bronx, French activists inexplicably flying a French flag at the rally, and a group of Chinese Christians from Chicago. Ironically, the rally was held one year to the day since NOM’s memo leaked revealing its intention to “drive a wedge” between the gay community and people of color, particularly by featuring people of color at their rallies and highlighting — i.e. overemphasizing — their visibility. The Marriage March exemplified that these efforts have not subsided in the least.

Perhaps one of the most visible groups at the rally was co-sponsor Tradition, Family & Property (TFP), a conservative Catholic organization identifiable by their red sashes, tall banners, and bagpipe players. As always, TFP was handing out its materials claiming homosexuality is a “changeable behavior” that “offends God” and must be opposed. Blogger Jeremy Hooper confronted some members of TFP at the rally and they confirmed to him that they co-sponsored the event specifically to proliferate such ideas.

Below is a video NOM posted with some highlights from the many speakers, but some of the most interesting quotes are cut. Stay tuned to ThinkProgress throughout the day for more reports of what was actually said there.

Also, here is a graphic from @TalkEquality challenging NOM’s claims about the rally’s attendance: