ROUND-UP: 2006 Election Predictions

This weekend, President Bush said, “Oh, you’ve probably heard them in Washington — all the pundits and prognosticators have already determined the outcome of the election.”

For those who didn’t hear the prognosticators, we’ve compiled a list of 2006 election predictions. Predictions are listed from most favorable to Republicans at the top to most favorable to Democrats at the bottom:

Mark Noonan, Blogs for Bush

I’ve been talking big about how well we’re going to do and my faith, shaken from time to time, never failed. Now it is to be put to the acid test – we shall know within 24 hours of this writing if I’ve been whistling past the graveyard, or have been realistic in my predictions. I’m standing by my words: the GOP gains seats in both Houses. [11/7/06]

Karl Rove, White House adviser

I’m looking at all of these [races] and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I’m entitled to the math. [10/24/06]

Michael Novak, National Review

The Left is going to lose – big – because they have nothing noble, nothing beautiful, nothing real, nothing true, with which to lead. They are the merchants of illusion. And a significant majority of Americans, although not all, see through them. In a democratic election, however, it only takes a small majority to win. And the upcoming election of 2006 is not likely to be all that close. The Democrats piqued too soon. Just watch. [6/15/06]

Kathryn Jean Lopez, National Review

I’m putting my money on Republicans miraculously (not totally deservingly, but it’s not about deserving it) keeping the House and the Senate, painfully narrowly. [11/7/06]

Barron’s magazine

Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. [10/23/06]

Vice President Dick Cheney

I think we’re going to do reasonably well. And I think we’ll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House. [10/17/06]

Jonah Goldberg, National Review

House: Dems +17 (whatever that math means).

Senate: R 53 – D 47.

Steele wins, Corker wins, Webb-Allen won’t be decided until recounts are finished, at which point Allen wins very narrowly. Chafee comes very close. [11/7/06]

Robert Novak, columnist

In the final Evans-Novak report about the upcoming election, Democrats will gain 19 House seats, two Senate seats, and almost half a dozen governorships in what is predicted to be the possible end of Republican Congressional control. [11/6/06]

Donna Brazile, Democratic Strategist

[Democrats win] 23 seats [in the House]. I haven’t gotten to 25 yet. But I predict that Democrats will come close to picking up the Senate at well – 29 gubernatorial seats. Right now a solid five [seats in the Senate]. I’m working on that sixth one. [11/5/06]

George Will, columnist

“I think [Democrats] will get maybe a tie in the Senate [five seats] which means Mr. Cheney will spend a lot of time in the chair breaking ties. And I would expect the Democrats to have a majority of about 10 seats which has been the average majority in the House for the Republicans for the last six elections. [11/5/06]

Fred Barnes, Weekly Standard

Senate: 51 (R), 49 (D)

House: 210 (R), 225 (D)

Dark Horse: Conrad Burns holds on in Montana. [11/03/06]

George Stephanopoulos, ABC News

Democrats pick up 25 seats in the House, fall just shy in the Senate, picking up five. [11/5/06]

Cook Political Report

Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor’s races. [11/6/06]

Stu Rothenberg, political analyst

Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gain of 30-36 seats.

Rothenberg Political Report projection: Democratic gains of 4-7 seats. [11/6/06]

Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics

THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R

THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R [11/6/06]

Joe Trippi, Democratic Strategist

I think the House is going to be really big — at the upper end of some of the numbers. It could easily be 35 seats won by the Democrats. The Senate is the one that’s tough to predict because it really could go either way. I could see anything from Democrats only gaining four or five seats to gaining eight seats. That’s possible, but my guess is that Democrats are going to come up a seat or two short in the Senate. [11/6/06]

William Kristol, Weekly Standard

Senate: 48 (R), 52 (D)

House: 192 (R), 243 (D)

Dark Horse: Anti-immigration stance backfires with Republican meltdown in Arizona and Colorado. [11/03/06]