Why Not Victory?

One of the great clichés of campaign punditry is the inevitable fall column explaining why such-and-such political party would be better off losing. Today, I read Peter Beinart arguing (via Ezra Klein) that “of all the disasters that have befallen the Republican Party in recent years, the most cataclysmic may be about to unfold: John McCain might win.” And yet it seems like only 102 weeks ago that Jacob Weisberg was explaining that Democrats would be better off losing the 2006 midterms, but actually the donkeys seem to be in okay shape.

The trouble with these columns isn’t so much that they’re wrong, as it is that they’re too correct. The two party system tends toward equilibrium so a party shut out of power is poised for a comeback whereas a party that monopolizes power is poised for a comeuppance. But this is really a trivial result and it doesn’t change the fact that a political party needs to play each election to win.