Searching for Cassandra

On the Cassandra-hunt issue my sense is that a large number of economists and macroeconomic observers were well aware of the probability that serious problems related to the collapse of a housing bubble might arise. But that most of them assumed that other key actors were also aware of the situation and therefore nothing extraordinarily bad would happen. People would see the value of their assets decline and there would perhaps be a recession but nothing earth-shattering

By contrast, some people who had something more like a ground-level view of the actual practices of financial service understood what was going on and weren’t shy about saying so. It was all on Calculated Risk. And of course others who had a ground-level view knew what was going on and weren’t interested in telling anyone about it.