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Climate Progress

Global Warming 1, Natural Cycles 0

When one of the world’s leading hurricane experts reverses his long-held position based on detailed analysis, it’s worth pointing out. I’m talking about M.I.T.’s Kerry Emanuel, author of perhaps the best book ever written on hurricanes–Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes. He said in May:

And so the rise of hurricane into the 1950s, its subsequent fall around 1990 or so, and then its more recent rise we now believe is mostly owing to changes in the radiation reaching the earth that have been caused by solar variability, volcanic activity, sulfate aerosol pollution and greenhouse warming….

So I no longer believe that there is any evidence for natural cycles of Atlantic hurricanes, even though a year ago I did.

And since greenhouse warming will just keep rising unless we take action soon, global warming will soon overwhelm completely all the other factors. Emanuel told Plenty magazine in February (subs. req’d), “I don’t see any reason why the power of hurricanes wouldn’t continue to increase over the next 100 to 200 years.” In June, Emanuel published the underlying analysis in Eos (subs. req’d), showing precisely why the dominant force driving ocean sea surface temperatures is human-caused global warming, not “natural cycles.”

The May quote was part of a terrific teleconference put on by Clear the Air, which also included a number of other leading experts. I recommend the transcript and audiotape of the event to anyone wishing to become more knowledgeable on this important subject.

Security

Pentagon University Elects First Openly Gay Student President

For the first time, a Defense Department university has elected an openly gay student council president.

The student body of Uniformed Services University (USU), which includes uniformed personnel in the armed forces, this week voted for Patrick High to represent graduate students at the school. High served nine years in the Illinois Army National Guard and is currently a Ph.D. candidate at USU.

His election “is just the latest in a series of signs that those serving in our armed forces are ready to welcome openly gay colleagues,” said C. Dixon Osburn, executive director of Servicemembers Legal Defense Network. Some other recent signs of progress:

– “Earlier this summer, a West Point graduate received a prestigious academic award for his thesis opposing ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,’ the ban on lesbian, gay and bisexual service members.”

– In May, Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy, USA (Ret.), the first woman to achieve the rank of three-star general in the Army, called for repeal of the law, saying it is “a hollow policy that serves no useful purpose.”

Still, the number of dismissals under “Don’t Ask” increased from 668 in 2004 to 742 last year, even as the U.S. Army’s personnel readiness degraded to levels not seen “since the Vietnam era.”

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Yglesias

Hope At Last

I’d been getting depressed about the Wizards’ prospects for next season. The center of the team is Agent Zero, Professor of Gilbertology who, by all accounts, requires a steady diet of perceived slights in order to motivate himself. Recently, though, the slights hadn’t been coming. After being snubbed for the All-Star Game, he wound up as David Stern’s replacement for the injured Jermaine O’Neal. Then came the playoffs where I kept hearing national television commentators describing him as “underrated” and explaining to the fans that he, like LeBron James, is one of the best young players in the league. Then he’s named to the Third Team All-NBA and selected for the Team USA roster where he wound up not making the final cut allegedly due to injury. All-in-all, Arenas was at risk of getting too fat, happy, and satisfied. But now he’s bringing the bitterness:

“No joke, I felt like I was the 16th man on a 15-man roster,” Arenas said. “You are there to support your team and support your country and be happy to play but you know, I did everything they wanted me to do; but if I did everything they wanted me to do, why am I on the bubble of getting cut? I sacrificed. You’ve got LeBron being LeBron. You’ve got Carmelo being Carmelo. You’ve got D-Wade being D-Wade. Why can’t I be me? Why do I have to transform? I did that and now you are going to cut me?”

Right on! Fuck those guys. Let Gilbert be Gilbert! Yes, of course, it’s true that there was nothing actually unfair about this, but as long as Gilbert feels it was unfair we’re on solid ground. His apparent good attitude about being asked to transform himself into either a traditional point guard or a spot-up shooter (again, the right things to ask of him as a member of Team USA) was indicative of a distressing lack of egomania. Now we’re in good shape. Indeed, if I believed for a minute that Darius Songaila was going to add “toughness” to the team (that’s what the front office wants us to believe), I’d be downright optimistic.

Yglesias

Should I Be More Cynical

The very kind Tyler Cowen writes that this new site “will continue to offer my favorite TV and NBA reviews on the web, along with his regular incisive-but-I-wish-he-were-more-cynical-about-government-and-more-sanguine-about-the-transformational-power-of-economic-growth Democratic political analysis.” Cowen’s a libertarian, so I expect we won’t see eye-to-eye on this, but I actually think I am pretty cynical about government. I’ve learned a lot from my various libertarian friends, from my seminar with Robert Nozick, from libertarian blogs, etc. and I think public choice economics is a very important perspective. The upshot of this is that, as a general matter, I’m considerably less enthusiastic about regulatory solutions to policy problems than are most liberals.

Sadly, though, the upshot of my libertarian-infused cynicism has mostly been to push me left of where I used to be on domestic policy issues. It’s cynicism about government and the political process that, for example, has made me much more enthusiastic about labor unions and much more hostile to means-testing entitlements than I used to be. If I believed that the deliberative democracy people weren’t naive fools, I’d be much more sanguine about various “third way” approaches to things.

Politics

White House ‘Cuts And Runs’ on ‘Stay the Course’

In today’s Washington Post, the White House complains that its critics use the term “stay the course” to describe President Bush’s strategy in Iraq:

Many Democrats accuse the president of advocating “stay the course” in Iraq, but the White House rejects the phrase and regularly emphasizes that it is adapting tactics to changing circumstances, such as moving more U.S. troops into Baghdad recently after a previous security strategy appeared to fail.

“Strategically, we are staying committed to the fact that this is an important mission and one that should be accomplished,” said a senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Democrats, this adviser said, say “we’re ‘doing the same thing over and over’ when that’s not the case.”

Where did anyone get the idea that the White House supports a “stay the course” strategy?

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, 8/17/06: “[Y]ou…cannot be a President in a wartime and not realize that you’ve got to stay the course.”

Snow, 8/16/06: “[T]hat’s why the President is determined to stay the course.”

President Bush, 7/11/06: “As a matter of fact, we will win in Iraq so long as we stay the course.”

Vice President Cheney, 6/6/06: “[W]e have to stay the course.”

People who say the Bush administration wants to “stay the course” in Iraq are not making an accusation, as today’s Washington Post suggests. They are telling the truth.

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Politics

ThinkFast: August 31, 2006

“A crowd of thousands cheered Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson” at a protest of President Bush’s appearance in town yesterday, the Salt Lake Tribune reports. Anderson called Bush a “dishonest, war-mongering, human-rights violating president.”

Gov. Schwarzenegger (R-CA) and Democratic leaders agreed yesterday on the “most sweeping controls on carbon dioxide emissions in the nation,” which call for a 25 percent reduction in emissions by 2020, “and could establish controls on the largest industrial sectors, including utilities, oil refineries and cement plants.”

“As many as one in five members of the armed services are being preyed on by loan centers set up near military bases that can charge cash-strapped military families interest of 400% or more, a new Pentagon report has found.”

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) “will probably be fined” and face other penalties for falsely telling the Tennessee Department of Health he had fulfilled all the requirements that doctors with active licenses must maintain in the state.

In a move to satisfy his “most conservative supporters,” President Bush on Wednesday nominated five “extremely divisive” people as appeals court judges, “including one whom Democrats have threatened to block with a filibuster.” Read more

Media

Neil Cavuto Gets Letters

Yesterday on Fox News, Neil Cavuto brought on exercise guru Richard Simmons and boxing promoter Don King to talk about the one year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. One viewer’s reaction to the hard-hitting segments:

cavutoscreens.jpg

Yglesias

Charm City

Huh. Apparently there’s a Baltimore City Paper. Who knew? Said paper contains an article about The Wire, thus indicating that it’s a superior publication to the tawdry Washington City Paper. I’ve been avoiding the temptation to watch the review copy of the entire season that the producers sent to the Prospect offices since I’d like to take it all in at the proper pace, but the City Paper guy watched ‘em all and says “it’s the most gripping, ambitious season the show has produced to date.”

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