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Wolfowitz: Iraq Insurgency ‘Surprised All Of Us’

In an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday, former Deputy Secretary of Defense and current World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz was challenged by a reporter about his pre-war assessment that Iraq “could really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon.” Wolfowitz responded, “What surprised all of us is the war has gone on a lot longer than we thought in a different manner.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/09/wolfowitz.320.240.flv]

The fact that the Iraq war has raged on for years should not be a surprise to Wolfowitz, but it’s not to the intelligence community. Wolfowitz and others in the Bush administration were warned repeatedly that postwar chaos was likely. Wolfowitz chose to disregard these warnings:

A yearlong State Department study predicted many of the problems that have plagued the American-led occupation of Iraq, according to internal State Department documents and interviews with administration and Congressional officials. … Several officials said that many of the findings in the $5 million study were ignored by Pentagon officials until recently, although the Pentagon said they took the findings into account. [NYT, 10/19/03]

[T]wo classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence,…predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict. [NYT, 9/28/04]

A review by former intelligence officers has concluded that the Bush administration “apparently paid little or no attention” to prewar assessments by the Central Intelligence Agency that warned of major cultural and political obstacles to stability in postwar Iraq. [NYT, 10/13/05]

Digg It!

Full transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Krauthammer’s War

isfahan.jpg
Naturally, Charles Krauthammer thinks we should start a war with Iran. Why anyone would pay attention to the man who proclaimed Iran “months away” from a nuclear bomb in January I couldn’t say. There was also this hilarious moment in April 2003: “Hans Blix had five months to find weapons. He found nothing. We’ve had five weeks. Come back to me in five months. If we haven’t found any, we will have a credibility problem.”

So he has a credibility problem. And various reading comprehension problems. The Klein / Rosenfeld tag team at Tapped does a good job of demolishing most of this, but there’s more. Consider: “The mullahs are infinitely more likely to use these weapons than anyone in the history of the nuclear age.” Infinitely more likely than . . . Harry Truman? Just a little sloppy writing and foregetfulness, I imagine, but it’s still pretty bizarre to think that someone would be so slipshod with their own column in a widely read newspaper. It’s also, I think, indicative of a generally slipshod approach to the world, an inattention to detail and Krauthammer’s trademark casual disregard for the truth.

Yglesias

Moral Unclarity

Peter Beinart’s right about this:

That doesn’t make Iran benign. But it does raise questions about whether the claim Arendt made about totalitarian regimes–that their messianic character made them inherently expansionist–fits Ahmadinejad’s, too. A war against Islamic totalitarianism has clear boundaries: It means a struggle against violent salafis. A war against Islamofascism does not, and that is precisely the point: It lets the Bush administration add enemies–first Iraq, now Iran–while implying that they share Al Qaeda’s ideology and represent the same kind of threat. That’s not true, and five years after September 11, it has left Americans increasingly confused about who we are fighting, and increasingly skeptical that we can win.

Quite so. My level of worry about a war with Iran, meanwhile, has just gone up several notches. Was speaking to what’s got to count as one of your more dovish Israeli politicians, someone eager to make peace with a genuinely independent Palestine that would have Jerusalem as its capital city, who kept saying repeatedly that he thought another war between Israel and Iran in the not-too-distant future is all but inevitable. Hezbollah, in his view, is nothing but a “commando division of Iran” and Hassan Nasrallah “is a division commander of Ahmadenijad.” He dismissed a question about a looming Iraq-Iran alliance by saying Iran is simply taking control of the government in Baghdad and that “this is another good reason to topple the regime in Teheran.” I suppose I see where he’s coming from, but a person who thinks that sort of regional dynamic is going to be — of all things — conducive to a comprehensive settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict isn’t thinking very clearly.

Climate Progress

Don Young wants a Tropical Alaska back — and 260-foot Sea-Level Rise

The Anchorage Daily News reports the amazing comments by Don Young, Alaska’s only Representative:

Before he left the hearing, Young, noting the presence of network TV crews, took a moment to reflect on his thoughts regarding climate change, citing the benefit of global warming — not caused by man — in another eon to an area that today is frozen much of the year. “We’re dealing with the most northern part of the United States of America, and a most hostile climate, and we’re pumping oil, and I’d just like to remind them if they’re asked where did the oil come from, and I would say this to Al Gore specifically: This was a jungle at one time, this was a forest at one time, this was a fern-laden area with mammoths at one time, and that’s really why we’re pumping oil,” he said.

This was sent to Climate Progress by Randy P in Anchorage who notes, “In other words, we should look forward to global warming here in Alaska because in 200 million years or so the increased vegetation will produce oil for Alaska’s residents of the future.”

What Young doesn’t seem to get is that humans are driving today’s climate change with greenhouse gas emissions rising 200 times faster than we have ever seen from natural causes.

Long before Alaska is tropical and regrowing oil-producing vegetation, the rest of the planet will obviously be ice free, yielding sea level rise of 80 meters (260 feet). Take that, Al Gore!

Of course, for Young, chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, that kind of Biblical flooding probably just means more infrastructure projects to fund. It would certainly give new meaning to the phrase, “Bridge to Nowhere.

Politics

Drudge’s Effort To Spin Global Warming Science Reaches Record High

Drudge has a huge headline this morning which suggest that global warming isn’t real:

Drudge Headline on Global Warming

If you take the time to click the link, however, you get a totally different story. It’s new data from the NOAA about weather from January to August. Some excerpts:

Summer 2006 was the second warmest June-to-August period in the continental U.S. since records began in 1895…

The persistence of the anomalous warmth in 2006 made this January-August period the warmest on record for the continental U.S., eclipsing the previous record of 1934.

A blistering heat wave in July impacted most of the nation, breaking more than 2,300 daily records and more than 50 all-time high temperature records.

Only Matt Drudge could spin data that shows the last 8 months were the warmest on record into something that supports global warming deniers.

Here’s the larger point: the fact that the summer of 1936 was warmer than last summer does nothing to undermine global warming science. There are other things beside increased carbon dioxide emissions that can cause temperatures to rise. These factors “include volcanic eruptions, variations in the intensity of incoming solar radiation.” But scientists have taken those factors into consideration and concluded that increased carbon emissions from human activity is responsible for the recent warming trend.

Politics

ThinkFast: September 15, 2006

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) has agreed to plead guilty to federal criminal charges related to his dealings with the corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Ney is the first member of Congress to admit to criminal charges in the Abramoff case.

Krauthammer’s Iran “calculus”: “An aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities lies just beyond the horizon of diplomacy. With the crisis advancing and the moment of truth approaching, it is important to begin looking now with unflinching honesty at the military option. … The decision is no more than a year away.”

The Bush administration has proposed eliminating funding for two renewable energy sources: hydropower and geothermal power research. Federal studies suggest that the “costs of lost opportunities from dropping such research could be enormous in the long run.”

Yesterday the House approved a “sham” earmark reform bill that critics say is “filled with loopholes that would still permit anonymous projects to be inserted into law without public scrutiny.” Rep. David Obey (D-WI), former chairman of the appropriations committee, called the bill “the death of lobby reform.”

Border-crossing deaths have “more than doubled in the past decade,” according to a GAO report. “More and more, the dead are women,” and “more migrants are dying from exposure in the desert than from other causes.” Read more

Culture

Inevitable Wire Backlash

It has begun. And I must say that I sympathize. The extent of the critical consensus on the show’s awesomeness is a bit odd. The extent to which people who aren’t TV critics (myself, say) have decided to become volunteer boosters for David Simon is positively creepy. Nevertheless, though the backlash is understandable, it’s unjustified. The Wire really is the best television show ever. The consensus, however, is just one of several pieces of evidence for the proposition that it won’t hold that title very long. In a mature medium, you’re just never going to have everyone agreeing. But the history of people even trying to create what would today be recognized as quality television programming is simply very short. Nothing from before the 1990s holds up at all and even something as good as the beloved Buffy is rather mechanically crude compared to a contemporary understanding of how you’re supposed to put serialized drama on the screen.

Someday, someone or other will decide they ought to actually try to compete with HBO in terms of putting good shows on the air instead of just having stuff (Veronica Mars, Battlestar Galactica) just fall into their laps. Or maybe there won’t be television networks at all and everything will be sold individually On Demand, building a high premium on intense fan loyalty into the distribution system. That’s when you’re going to see the true Golden Age of Television, a period in which critics seriously disagree with each other about which shows are best, and in which you won’t see the Best Show Ever title turn over as rapidly as we’ve seen in the Sopranos-Wire cycle.

Politics

Losers?

Seems like more and more conservatives are writing this column about how it might be better for the GOP to lose control of the house, which I can only take as a sign that the GOP will, in fact, do so. What’s more, the conservatives who think this would be good are right!

Yglesias

What Matters

This debate’s been roiling over at the Prospect and I waded in with a take roughly along these lines, but I think Krugman really nails it:

Consider this: The United States economy is far richer and more productive than it was a generation ago. Statistics on economic growth aside, think of all the technological advances that have made workers more productive over the past generation. In 1973, there were no personal computers, let alone the Internet. Even fax machines were rare, expensive items, and there were no bar-code scanners at checkout counters. Freight containerization was still uncommon. The list goes on and on.

Yet in spite of all this technological progress, which has allowed the average American worker to produce much more, we’re not sure whether there was any rise in the typical worker’s pay. Only those at the upper end of the income distribution saw clear gains — gains that were enormous for the lucky few at the very top.

That’s why the debate over whether the middle class is a bit better off or a bit worse off now than a generation ago misses the point. What we should be debating is why technological and economic progress has done so little for most Americans, and what changes in government policies would spread the benefits of progress more widely. An effort to shore up middle-class health insurance, paid for by a rollback of recent tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans — something like the plan proposed by John Kerry two years ago, but more ambitious — would be a good place to start.

The thing of it is is that in order to articulate the point properly, Democrats are going to need to re-learn the word “inequality,” something that seems to have vanished from their vocabulary in the late 80s or early 90s.

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