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Politics

Clinton/Obama, Moderate/Liberal

It’s been my view that Hillary Clinton is a politician whose public image is more liberal than the reality, whereas Barak Obama is more liberal than his image and that this is a good reason to favor Obama. GFR characterizes this as a “developing myth” citing yomder Washington Post article:

Among Democrats, Clinton leads the field with 39 percent, followed by Obama at 17 percent, Edwards at 12 percent, former vice president Al Gore at 10 percent and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the party’s 2004 nominee, at 7 percent. No other Democrat received more than 2 percent.

When those surveyed were asked their second choice, Clinton’s advantage became even more evident. She is the first or second choice of 60 percent of those surveyed, with Obama second at 33 percent.

Clinton receives significantly higher support among women than men (49 percent to 29 percent) and is favored by more moderates than liberals. Obama has almost equal support among men and women but has twice as much support among liberals as among moderates.

I’m not actually sure what this proves. The poll is measuring Clinton’s support among moderates relative to her support from liberals and, again, Obama’s support among moderates relative to his support among liberals. What’s more, it’s measuring their support in a race against each other for the Democratic nomination. The relevant question, however, is which candidate is likely to do better among moderate voters in a general election and the poll didn’t ask that question. The full poll does give nationwide approve/disapprove numbers with no ideological breakdowns. Clinton is 56/40 approve/disapprove which is a lot better than where I would have guessed. Obama is 44/23 which I’d say is better (a 1.4:1 approve:disapprove ratio is worse than a 1.93:1 ratio) but certainly both are well-enough liked at this point that you could see either winning an election.

Other polling note is that Nancy Pelosi is pretty well-liked at 43/33. That’s not great, but it’s way better than Bush at 36/62 so there’s absolutely no reason Democrats should feel some need to distance themselves from her, worry that the GOP can succeed by running against Pelosi, or think that Pelosi herself should avoid from feisty give-and-take with the president.

Yglesias

Talking to Syria

There’s good and there’s bad in David Ignatius column on diplomacy with Syria but the genuinely absurd part of the column is not-at-all something Ignatius can be blamed for. And it’s right here at the beginning:

DAMASCUS, Syria — What positions would Syria take if it entered a dialogue with the United States about Iraq and other Middle East issues? I put that question Thursday to Walid Moallem, Syria’s foreign minister, and he offered surprisingly strong support for the recommendations made last week in the Baker-Hamilton report.

Note the dateline: Damascus. Note the interviewee: Syria’s foreign minister. It’s not that hard. I don’t have the budget for a trip to Damascus, and I bet I lack the clout for an interview with the foreign minister. But the State Department can surely swing the trip. Exploring the possibility of diplomacy requires, quite simply, nothing more than for Rice or Robert Zoellick or David Welch to, you know, go to Syria and ask what’s up. It’s lazy, insane, or just insane laziness not to do it. But no. Top officials will meet with the Syrian opposition but not the Syrian government. Because, I guess, if we close our eyes and wish hard enough, the Syrian government will just go away and the opposition will take over?

At any rate, here’s Ignatius’ complete interview with the Foreign Minister, and good for him for making the trip.

Politics

With Mary Cheney Pregnant, Bush Won’t Say Whether He Still Opposes Gay Adoption

Mary and HeatherAs a presidential candidate in 1999, Bush stated his unequivocal opposition to gay adoption. From the AP, 3/23/99:

Bush said he opposes allowing gay couples to adopt. “I believe children ought to be adopted in families with a woman and a man who are married,” he said Monday.

The governor also declined to take a position on whether children already adopted by gays or lesbians should be removed from those homes. “I have no idea whether the children ought to be removed or not removed,” he said. “The question is whether I’m for gay adoption. And the answer is, I’m not.”

Then Mary Cheney, Vice President Cheney’s daughter, got pregnant. The child will be raised by Mary Cheney and her partner Heather Poe. ABC News asked the White House “over and over, if the President, as he declared in 1999, still opposed same sex couples adopting children.” The White House would not answer.

Here’s what Bush had to say a few days ago to People Magazine:

The Vice President took me aside and gave me the good news. He and his wife, Lynne, are very happy for Mary I think Mary is going to be a loving soul to her child. And I’m happy for her.

There must be something about Mary.

Yglesias

How The Game Is Played

John Hood:

Denver is competing with New York City to host the 2008 Democratic convention. Many party leaders want to spotlight Colorado as an example of blue momentum in the mountain west, since Democrats have gained the state legislature, seats in Congress, and the governorship in the past two election cycles. But a resurgent Democratic constituency, organized labor, had been balking. Labor leaders said that Denver had few unionized hotels. Their complaints are getting results, as city government is working on the “problem.” City bonds helped finance a downtown hotel, so city officials have used their corresponding influence to help pave the way for a union to organize the workers. Union leaders who favor Denver’s bid want to use the convention business as leverage to organize additional hotels.

This is how the game is played, kids.

Hood seems to regard this as shady but, in fact, this is how the game is played and I say, “keep on playing.” Denver would be a good location for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. I think the party would like to see a Denver convention. And I think Denver would like to host a Convention. The problem is that there aren’t enough unionized hotels in Denver. So local politicians and labor unions are trying to use the possibility of a convention and other forms of leverage they have to organize local hotel workers. Sounds smart to me — I wish them luck.

Politics

The Senator “who never says no.”

How Jack Abramoff associate Todd Boulanger described Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) in an email obtained by TPM Muckraker. Boulanger urged others at Abramoff’s lobbying firm, Greenberg Traurig, to donate even more money “for the member who keeps the lights turned on here at Greenberg.”

Culture

Answer-bashing

In an effort to further alienate my readers, let’s note the current All-Star balloting for Eastern Conference guards where Gilbert Arenas “ranks fourth among Eastern Conference guards with 225,923 votes, putting him behind Iverson (595,200), Wade (586,679) and Vince Carter (433,363).” And, of course, it’s no surprise to see Agent Zero lagging behind one of the top-30 players of all time. Except for the fact that, this season, Gilbert is doing better at virtually every aspect of the game. TS% 56.7 versus 52.9, so Arenas is more likely to put the ball in the hoop when he shoots. Assist ratio 18 versus 17.7, so he’s more likely to make the pass to the open man. Turnover ratio of 10.5 to 10.7, so he protects the ball better. Rebound rate of 5.6 versus 3.8 so he’s better at helping his team get possession.

Iverson gets some better aggregate numbers because of his elevated usage rate 34.2 versus 31.4 and because he plays about four additional minutes per game. Even as a pure scorer, Iverson’s 29.2 points per 40 minutes is worse than Gilbert’s 29.3 p/40. Obviously, the All-Star Game’s a popularity contest and the fans should get to see the Wade-Iverson backcourt they want rather than the Wade-Arenas backcourt they deserve but still . . . the injustice!

Politics

ThinkFast: December 15, 2006

rumbush.jpg

“President Bush will be there this afternoon as the Pentagon rolls out a full-honors goodbye ceremony for Donald Rumsfeld.”

Sen. Bill Nelson’s (D-FL) meeting yesterday with Syrian President Assad was “inappropriate and undermined democracy in the region,” the White House said. Three more senators, including Arlen Specter (R-PA), will visit Syria soon. Meanwhile, the White House hedged yesterday when asked whether neocon darling Ahmad Chalabi was reaching out to Syria on behalf of the U.S.

White House press secretary Tony Snow apologized yesterday to NBC News correspondent David Gregory, whom he accused last week for posing “partisan” questions at a briefing for journalists. “I’ve thought a lot about that, and I was wrong,” Snow said.

C-SPAN has asked incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to change rules kept in place by conservatives that require camera operators to take “static, head-on shots of the representative who’s speaking at the podium,” instead of “taking individual reaction shots” or panning the House chamber.

New Zogby poll shows that “Arab attitudes toward American people, products and culture grew increasingly negative last year,” in large part from U.S. policy toward Iraq and the Palestinian conflict. Read more

Yglesias

Woulda Coulda Shoulda

Condoleezza Rice explains that there’ll be no new diplomatic initiatives with Iran and Syria because “neither country should need incentives to foster stability in Iraq.” What’s more, she “also said there would be no retreat from the administration’s push to promote democracy in the Middle East.”

Seriously, people, it’s time to grow up. Sitting around in the Situation Room and deciding that other countries just should do what we want them to do so there’s no need for diplomacy is insane. The way the world works is that if you want some countries to do some things, you need to discuss this fact with them, ascertain what their actual views on the matter are, see what they would want you to do in exchange, and then make a decision. Rice rejected this option “saying the ‘compensation’ required by any deal might be too high.” Get that again. She won’t talk to Syria and Iran to explore options because the price might — might — be too high. Why not find out?

The interaction of this “they should do it anyway” view with the democracy view is especially toxic. Promoting democracy, in this context, means putting an anti-Iranian government in Baghdad, putting an anti-Syrian government in Lebanon, and overthrowing the regimes in Damascus and Teheran. Let that be as desirable as you like, but it’s obvious that neither Syria or Iran is going to help us bring stability to anything as long as that remains the medium-term objective of our policy. Most insanely of all, given the circumstances insisting on “the administration’s push to promote democracy in the Middle East” isn’t going to actually promote democracy in the Middle East. It’s just going to ensure that Iraq slips ever-deeper into chaos and that we more-and-more lose our grip on the situation.

Culture

Apocalypto Followup

Tyler Cowen spells out his reading of Apocalypto in some more detail, seeing it as a series of deliberate parallels to the story of Christ designed to say something about Christianity versus Islam. It’s an interesting reading, and makes me want to go see the film again.

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