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Yglesias

Chirac on Iran

From where I sit, the real significance of this story about Jacques Chirac going off-message on Iran is to underscore something I’ve said before — it’s not clear that bombing Iran would delay Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon at all. Virtually every country on earth could be doing less than it currently is to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. As we see in Chirac’s remarks, in virtually all of these countries there is some substantial disagreement as to how big of a deal the Iranian nuclear program is. Beyond the strict merits of the question, there are two factors militating toward a hard line on Iran. One is that the United States wants other countries to take a hard line, and our words carry some weight. A second is that other countries don’t want the United States or Israel to do anything crazy and start a war.

If a war starts, obviously, that second rationale goes out the window. For some countries, the first may go out the window as well. At the margin, countries with aspirations to greatness (Russia, China, France, India, Brazil, etc.) all face a constant dilemma between kissing the hegemon’s ass and wanting the undermine the hegemon. The more we act like a rogue hegemon — launching or supporting aggressive warfare against other countries — the more at least some of those of those countries will opt for less ass-kissing and more undermining. Both considerations indicate that military strikes on Iran are likely to erode other countries’ efforts to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb.

It’s crucial not to sell those efforts short. Russia and China have taken a beating in the American press — especially the hawkish press — for not cooperating with the Bush administration as much as one might like. And, indeed, one could ask them to do more. On the other hand, they could be doing much less. At the limit, China could simply accept a whole bunch of money in exchange for sending some Chinese nuke-building guys and nuke-building machines over to Iran: Bomb! I’m not a fortune-teller, so I can’t tell you how big the impact of strikes would be on foreign countries’ attitudes, but the point is simply that it’s a huge X Factor that hawks are absolutely refusing to reckon with.

Yglesias

“I Have Not”

So…watching Diane Feinstein question DNI-designate Mike McConnell it turns out that the new Director of National Intelligence . . . hasn’t read the forthcoming National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. Nothing like the sweet, sweet professionalism of the Bush administration.

Politics

Brzezinski warns of coming conflict with Iran.

“The war in Iraq is a historic, strategic, and moral calamity,” former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski said in prepared testimony for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq,” Brzezinski cautioned, “the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. … It is obvious by now that the American national interest calls for a significant change of direction.”

Yglesias

Inequality and so Forth

I liked Brad DeLong’s take on inequality a lot. Brad Plumer’s essay on rich people controlling the political system is also very good. It’s worth tying the two together as well. Sometimes, for example, you get something like the Sony Bono Copyright Term Extension Act in which a relatively small number of people (the executives of large media companies, the owners of large media companies, and a handful of superstar content creators) who were all far wealthier on average than the typical American used their wealth to get congress to effectuate a significant transfer of wealth away from the vast majority of citizens and toward them.

You rarely see such direct examples of rich people using political clout to simply confiscate wealth and further enrich themselves, but it’s hardly unheard of either. I recommend Dean Baker’s book, The Conservative Nanny State. On a micro-scale ask yourself why it is that in Washington, DC (and as best I can tell pretty much all major American cities) that city services are delivered better and faster to the neighborhoods where rich people live, further increasing the value of the property they already own.

Security

BREAKING: Iraq Escalation Could Be Twice As Large As Bush Claimed

A study released today by the Congressional Budget Office shows that the real troop increase associated with President Bush’s escalation policy could be as high as 48,000, more than double the 21,500 soldiers that Bush has claimed.

As DefenseTech notes, extra forces are expected because the combat units being sent into Iraq “need to be backed up by support troops, ‘including personnel to staff headquarters, serve as military police, and provide communications, contracting, engineering, intelligence, medical, and other services.’” The CBO’s low estimate envisions at least 15,000 additional support personnel. The alternative scenario “would require about 28,000 support troops in addition to the 20,000 combat troops.”

Additionally, the cost of the escalation could be as much as five times higher than White House estimates:

According to the study, the costs for the “surge” would also be dramatically different than the President has said. The White House estimated a troop escalation would require about $5.6 billion in additional funding, the CBO now believes “that costs would range from $9 billion to $13 billion for a four-month deployment and from $20 billion to $27 billion for a 12-month deployment, depending upon the total number of troops deployed.”

Read the full CBO report HERE.

UPDATE: A release from Rep. John Spratt’s (D-SC) office notes that the CBO report also predicts addition burdens on U.S. forces:

An average of 170,000 military personnel has been maintained in the Iraq theater of operations, and this high deployment level has taken a toll. Last year, CBO reported that the Department of Defense had reduced the amount of ‘dwell’ time for many troops from two years to one year in order to sustain troop levels. ‘Dwell’ time is the time troops spend in training at bases in the United States while living with their families. CBO questioned whether such a high pace of operations was sustainable over the long term. The President’s proposal will increase this level to above 200,000 troops, and to reach this level, the Pentagon will probably have to relax ‘dwell’ time standards even more.

Digg It!

Politics

New Hard-Line Abortion Bill Introduced in South Dakota

Three months after South Dakota voters rejected an abortion ban at the polls by a 56-44 margin, state legislators have introduced another “sweeping abortion bill…that supporters hope will lead to a legal challenge of Roe v. Wade.”

The ban rejected in November was “extreme, allowing for abortion only in instances to prevent the death of a woman. The revised ban, titled the ‘Women’s Health and Human Life Protection Act,’ offers additional exceptions, though they are very narrowly defined.”

Ms. Magazine reports:

In addition to preventing the death of a woman, an abortion may be obtained in cases of rape or incest, but the victim must report the rape to the police within 50 days, the physician must obtain a copy of the report record, and the victim must provide either the name and last known address or a description of the alleged rapist to law enforcement. Furthermore, the physician would be required to take blood samples from the woman and the fetus to be submitted to law enforcement.

In the case of incest, a doctor “would have to get the woman’s consent to report the crime along with the identity of the alleged perpetrator before an abortion could be performed. Blood samples from fetuses would have to be provided to police in incest cases too.”

Also, the penalties outlined in the new bill are “much more severe than last year’s bill. Any physician who performs an abortion outside the guidelines of the bill would be guilty of a class-four felony and could face up to 10 years in jail.”

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