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Yglesias

Jews and the War

American Jews turn out to be the religious group most opposed to the Iraq War (77 percent say it was a mistake) unless you count “black Protestants” as a separate group (which maybe you should) in which case we come out as only the second most opposed, since 78 percent of black Protestants say it was a mistake. By contrast, even the dread “no religion” group only musters 66 percent in opposition (Mormons, incidentally, love war).

Among Jewish Democrats, a whopping 89 percent say the war was a mistake. The rest are on Joe Lieberman’s staff and will probably be switching parties soon.

Politics

Cheney: ‘There Does Not Appear To Be A Consensus’ That Global Warming Is ‘Caused By Man’

cheneyIn its latest report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded it was “very likely” — or more than 90 percent probable — that human activities led by burning fossil fuels explained most of the warming in the past 50 years.

Continuing the Bush administration’s long resistance to the science of global warming, Vice President Dick Cheney said today a consensus is lacking on whether global warming is caused by human activity. From an interview with ABC:

JONATHAN KARL: Where is the science on this? Is global warming a fact? And is it human activity that is causing global warming?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Those are the two key questions. I think there’s an emerging consensus that we do have global warming. You can look at the data on that, and I think clearly we’re in a period of warming. Where there does not appear to be a consensus, where it begins to break down, is the extent to which that’s part of a normal cycle versus the extent to which it’s caused by man, greenhouse gases, et cetera.

Cheney added later in the interview, “I don’t know. I’m not a scientist.” But he appears comfortable enough in his knowledge to suggest that the scientists are all wrong.

Climate Progress

Dawn of the Super-Interglacial Drought?

century-of-drought.jpgGlobal warming makes droughts longer and stronger–and more likely. That has been a major theme of this blog (just plug “drought” into the search engine). Business as usual greenhouse gas emissions may lead to desertification for a stunning 30% of the Earth’s surface! And now we learn:

Severe water shortages are likely to constrain future expansion of population, agriculture and industry in the south-western US, the fastest growing part of the country, according to a report by the National Academy of Sciences.

A 2005 study led by the University of Arizona, with Los Alamos National Laboratory and the U.S. Geological Survey, examined a huge three-million acre die-off of vegetation in 2002-2003 “in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations” in the Four Corners area (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah). This drought was not quite as dry as the one in that region in the 1950s, but it was much warmer, hence it was a global-warming-type drought. The recent drought had “nearly complete tree mortality across many size and age classes” whereas “most of the patchy mortality in the 1950s was associated with trees [greater than] 100 years old.”

Most of this tree death was caused by bark beetle infestation, and “such outbreaks are tightly tied to drought-induced water stress.” Healthy trees defend themselves by drowning the tiny pine beetles in resin. Without water, weakened, parched trees are easy meals for bugs.

The authors warn that the recent drought in the Four Corners area “may be a harbinger of future global-change-type drought throughout much of North America and elsewhere, in which increased temperatures in concert with multidecadal drought patterns” cause unprecedented changes in ecosystems. In a 2005 talk I attended, climatologist Jonathan Overpeck noted that this study, together with the recent evidence that temperature and annual precipitation are headed in opposite directions, raises the question of whether we are at the dawn of the super-interglacial drought.” [See slide 6]

The increased risk of severe drought we are seeing today was predicted back in 1990 by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies. Their model also suggested that, in the second half of this century, severe drought, which was already occurring with about 5 percent frequency by 1990, will occur every other year-and more frequently in the West.

It is, of course, purely an ironic coincidence that severe droughts (and wildfires) have hit Oklahoma and Texas, Wyoming, Australia, and China–states and countries with political leaders (or former leaders) opposed to climate action. But it is no coincidence that severe droughts are on the rise. We are changing the climate and much worse is to come if we don’t take action soon

Politics

‘Hero In Error’ Chalabi Makes Political Comeback To Lead Iraqi End Of Escalation Strategy

chalabi.jpgThe Wall Street Journal reports this morning that Ahmed Chalabi, the darling of neoconservatives in the lead-up to the Iraq war, has been given a prominent position to oversee the implementation of the escalation strategy on the Iraqi end:

In his latest remarkable political reincarnation, onetime U.S. favorite Ahmed Chalabi has secured a position inside the Iraqi government that could help determine whether the Bush administration’s new push to secure Baghdad succeeds. …

Chalabi will serve as an intermediary between Baghdad residents and the Iraqi and U.S. security forces mounting an aggressive counterinsurgency campaign across the city. The position is meant to help Iraqis arrange reimbursement for damage to their cars and homes caused by the security sweeps in the hope of maintaining public support for the strategy.

Chalabi, who once famously said of his Iraq involvement, “we are heroes in error,” has had a sordid history with the United States. A review of Chalabi’s nefarious activities:

PENTAGON FUNDED CHALABI TO PROVIDE RATIONALE FOR WAR: The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency paid the INC $335,000 a month in the lead-up to the Iraq war to gather intelligence. In all, the Bush White House has given the INC at least $39 million over the past 5 years. [IPS, 5/23/04; New Yorker, 6/7/04]

CHALABI’S IRAQI NATIONAL CONGRESS WAS MAJOR SOURCE OF DATA FOR PENTAGON OFFICE OF SPECIAL PLANS: According to a report in the New Yorker, analysts based in the Pentagon’s Office of Special Plans “relied on data gathered by other intelligence agencies and also on information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, or I.N.C., the exile group headed by Ahmad Chalabi.” [New Yorker, 5/12/03]

CHALABI WAS SOURCE FOR FALSE JUDY MILLER STORIES: Chalabi was the source for discredited news stories about Iraq and weapons of mass destruction which were penned by New York Times reporter Judith Miller. In 2001, Miller wrote a front-page story about claims that Saddam had twenty secret WMD sites hidden in Iraq. The information turned out to be bogus. [New York Times, 2/26/04; The New Yorker, 6/7/04]

CHALABI ACCUSED OF PASSING U.S. SECRETS TO IRAN: In June 2004, Chalabi came under investigation for allegations that he passed secret intelligence to Iran. Chalabi was accused of telling the Iranian government that the U.S. had broken the code it used for secret communications. [Washington Post, 6/3/04; WSJ, 11/7/05]

More here.

Commenting on Chalabi’s political resurgence, a senior American official told the WSJ: “The question is whether he is really doing this to help, or whether he’s trying to build himself a new political base in Baghdad or carry water for the Shiites. And we simply don’t know the answer to that yet.”

Politics

Michelle Malkin to co-host new Fox show.

“Fox News Channel is testing another pilot on Sunday that will air following its experiment in news satire, ‘The ½ Hour News Hour.’ ‘It’s Out There,’ a half-hour of stories derived from blogs, will get a half-hour test run following Joel Surnow’s satirical take on news. [The show], fronted by conservative blogger-columnist Michele Malkin and former Clinton administration operative Kirsten Powers, will take on political and cultural issues enflaming the blogosphere.”

Politics

Hunter taps right-wing advisers.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) yesterday named the South Carolina advisers to his presidential campaign. One of them, Lois Eargle, boasted about her hard-line views on immigration, explaining that when “an illegal immigrant with three children came to her office this week asking for free legal help for an abused child,” she told the immigrant to “get back to Mexico.” Another Hunter adviser, Dr. Henry Jordan, declared last year, “I mean you’ve got to be stupid to believe in evolution, I mean really.”

Yglesias

Who Lost Cambodia

Andrew Sullivan highlights General William Odom making the mistake of agreeing to appear on the Hugh Hewitt show and wrestling with one of the media most intellectually dishonest fixtures. I note that one thing Hewitt tries to do is a move I’ve seen more and more recently; attempt to pin the blame for the Cambodian genocide on the anti-war movement of the 1970s. Nothing, really, could be further from the truth. Benedict Kiernan is director of the Genocide Studies Program at Yale. He “is the author of How Pol Pot Came to Power: Colonialism, Nationalism, and Communism in Cambodia, 1930-1975 (1985, 2004), Cambodia: The Eastern Zone Massacres (1986), The Pol Pot Regime: Race, Power and Genocide in Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975-1979 (1996, 2002), and Le Génocide au Cambodge, 1975-1979: Race, idéologie, et pouvoir (1998). He is the co-author of Khmers Rouges ! Matériaux pour l’histoire du communisme au Cambodge (1981), Peasants and Politics in Kampuchea, 1942-1981 (1982), and Cambodge: Histoire et enjeux (1986), and has published numerous articles on Southeast Asia and the history of genocide.”

What’s more, “He was founding Director of the Cambodian Genocide Program (1994-99) and Convenor of the Yale East Timor Project (2000-02). Kiernan’s edited collection Conflict and Change in Cambodia won the Critical Asian Studies Prize for 2002. He is also the editor of Genocide and Democracy in Cambodia: The Khmer Rouge, the United Nations, and the International Community (1993), and Burchett: Reporting the Other Side of the World, 1939-1983 (1986), and co-editor of Revolution and Its Aftermath in Kampuchea (1983), Pol Pot Plans the Future: Confidential Leadership Documents from Democratic Kampuchea, 1976-1977 (1988), and The Specter of Genocide: Mass Murder in Historical Perspective (2003).” In short, the guy knows a thing or two about Cambodia. Read this article he wrote:

The still-incomplete database (it has several “dark” periods) reveals that from October 4, 1965, to August 15, 1973, the United States dropped far more ordnance on Cambodia than was previously believed: 2,756,941 tons’ worth, dropped in 230,516 sorties on 113,716 sites. Just over 10 percent of this bombing was indiscriminate, with 3,580 of the sites listed as having “unknown” targets and another 8,238 sites having no target listed at all. The database also shows that the bombing began four years earlier than is widely believed—not under Nixon, but under Lyndon Johnson. The impact of this bombing, the subject of much debate for the past three decades, is now clearer than ever. Civilian casualties in Cambodia drove an enraged populace into the arms of an insurgency that had enjoyed relatively little support until the bombing began, setting in motion the expansion of the Vietnam War deeper into Cambodia, a coup d’état in 1970, the rapid rise of the Khmer Rouge, and ultimately the Cambodian genocide. The data demonstrates that the way a country chooses to exit a conflict can have disastrous consequences. It therefore speaks to contempor­ary warfare as well, including US operations in Iraq. Despite many differences, a critical similarity links the war in Iraq with the Cambodian conflict: an increasing reliance on air power to battle a heterogeneous, volatile insurgency.

So in short, no, neither the American bombing of Cambodia nor the Vietnam War in general were humanitarian operations well-suited to protecting Cambodian civilians from the Khmer Rouge. But, then again, you knew that already, didn’t you? Hewitt’s busting this out more in the spirit of “no talking point left behind” than as part of some kind of good-faith effort to understand the origins of political mass killing.

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