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Kristol: ‘We’re Not In A Civil War’ In Iraq, ‘This Is Just Not True’

Approximately one year ago — in an August 2006 appearance on the Charlie Rose show — Bill Kristol acknowledged that Iraq was teetering on the edge of civil war, stating: “It is true that we are at risk of a sectarian civil war there, and I’m extremely worried about that. I don’t quarrel about that.”

Since Bush adopted his escalation strategy earlier this year, Kristol has turned to defying the reality of the situation on the ground in Iraq in order to justify the troop increase. Today, on Fox News Sunday, Kristol argued that the violence in Iraq does not constitute a civil war:

We’re not in a civil war. This is just not true. American troops are attacking al Qaeda. They’re attacking some elements of the Shi’a militias. They’re doing other things, helping with reconciliation. They are not in the middle of a civil war. It’s not true.

Watch it:

As sectarian violence has increased, multiple U.S. intelligence sources have acknowledged the civil war. In January, the National Intelligence Estimate said, “the term ‘civil war’ accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.” In March, the Pentagon for the first time said the violence in Iraq constituted a civil war.

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell explained, “I have characterized it as a civil war even though the administration does not call it that. And the reason I call it a civil war is I think that allows you to see clearly what we’re facing. We’re facing groups that are now fighting each other: Sunnis vs. Shias, Shias vs. Shias, Sunni vs. al-Qaeda. And it is a civil war.”

UPDATE: More Bill Kristol delusions. In an op-ed in the Washington Post, he writes “Why Bush Will Be A Winner.”

UPDATE II: Atrios has more.

Climate Progress

Study: Raising Mileage Standards Creates Jobs

A new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists finds:

Increasing the average fuel economy of America’s new autos to 35 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2018 would save consumers $61 billion at the gas pump and increase U.S. employment by 241,000 jobs in the year 2020, including 23,900 in the auto industry….

The study is available here.

According to the analysis, nearly $24 billion of the gasoline savings would become new revenue for automakers in 2020–paying for the improved technologies plus some profit….

[P]utting fuel economy technology to work would also cut our oil addiction by 1.6 million barrels per day and reduce global warming pollution by more than 260 million metric tons, akin to taking nearly 40 million of today’s average cars and trucks off the road in 2020.

Politics

Maliki: American troops can ‘leave any time they want.’

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Saturday, “We say in full confidence that we are able, God willing, to take the responsibility completely in running the security file if the international forces withdraw at any time they want.” One of al-Maliki’s close advisers, Shiite lawmaker Hassan al-Suneid, bristled over the American pressure, telling The Associated Press that “the situation looks as if it is an experiment in an American laboratory (judging) whether we succeed or fail.”

Yglesias

The Phillipines

“America is proud of its part in the great story of the Filipino people,” George W. Bush, October, 2003, “Together our soldiers liberated the Philippines from colonial rule.” That remark prompted these thoughts from John Judis in the July/August 2004 Foreign Policy:

As many Philippine commentators remarked afterward, Bush’s rendition of Philippine-American history bore little relation to fact. True, the U.S. Navy ousted Spain from the Philippines in the Spanish-American War of 1898. But instead of creating a Philippine democracy, the McKinley administration, its confidence inflated by victory in that splendid little war, annexed the country and installed a colonial administrator. The United States then waged a brutal war against the same Philippine independence movement it encouraged to fight against Spain. The war dragged on for 14 years. Before it ended, about 120,000 U.S. troops were deployed, more than 4,000 were killed, and more than 200,000 Filipino civilians and soldiers were killed. Resentment lingered a century later during Bush’s visit.

As for the Philippines’ democracy, the United States can take little credit for what exists and some blame for what doesn’t. The electoral machinery the United States designed in 1946 provided a democratic veneer beneath which a handful of families, allied to U.S. investors-and addicted to kickbacks-controlled the Philippine land, economy, and society. The tenuous system broke down in 1973 when Philippine politician Ferdinand Marcos had himself declared president for life. Marcos was finally overthrown in 1986, but even today Philippine democracy remains more dream than reality. Three months before Bush’s visit, a group of soldiers staged a mutiny that raised fears of a military coup. With Islamic radicals and communists roaming the countryside, the Philippines is perhaps the least stable of Asian nations. If the analogy between the United States’ liberation of the Philippines and of Iraq holds true, it will not be to the credit of the Bush administration, but to the skeptics who charged that the White House undertook the invasion of Baghdad with its eyes wide shut.

Now via Daniel Larison, we see Michael O’Hanlon and Jason Campbell once again citing the Phillipines as a model of success: “The experience of successful counterinsurgency and stabilization missions in places such as the Philippines and Malaysia, by contrast, leads us to place a premium on tracking trends in the daily lives of typical citizens.” To a remarkable extent our contemporary debates are just re-hashing the controversies over imperialism of over a century ago.

Yglesias

Burger School

Tyler Cowen’s upset with Jonathan Kozol’s warning that “If those of us who profess to value public schools and the principle of democratic access they uphold cannot find the courage or the motivation to fight in their defense, we may soon wake up to find that they have been replaced by wholly owned subsidiaries of McDonald’s, Burger King, and Wal-Mart.” And, indeed, if anything the problem with privatizing the school system is likely to be the reverse of this. Businesses go where the business opportunities are.

Given the difficulty of the enterprises, there’s no reason to think that educating disadvantaged children is a market that smart businessmen are clamoring to get in on. The basic structure of the achievement gap problem in the United States is that all the evidence suggests that educating the disadvantaged is harder than educating the privileged, but the latter task attracts more resources than does the former. A privatized system could, in principle, change that; but a publicly administered one could as well. Either way, you’d need a setup so that the best people (in terms of teachers, administrators, or even vicious profit-maximizing businessmen) were drawn to doing the harder job rather than the easier one.

Culture

Manufactured Landscapes

Manufactured_Landscapes_1.jpg

I went to see this documentary by Jennifer Baichwal yesterday and while I liked it a lot, I should warn potential filmgoers that the marketing is a bit misleading. The previews I’d seen, at least, led some people to expect a seriously political film about environmental problems in China. The film really doesn’t give you the kind of essayistic argument that you see in SiCKO and An Inconvenient Truth. Instead of being a political movie about environmental problems in China, it’s an arty movie about Edward Burtynsky‘s still photographs of industrial processes and the landscapes that result from them in China.

Personally, I appreciated the non-didactic tone. The film’s hints as to the filmmakers’ political views made me think I’d be considerably more enthusiastic about China’s economic rise than they are, but the movie mostly plays it straight. The takeaway point becomes not something about what must be done or the technical origins of the problems (you should probably read Christina Larson’s article about China and the environment for that), but rather something about the sheer scale of what’s happening. The combination of film and still photography does an excellent job of driving home exactly how much is changing how rapidly over there in a way that the brute numbers can’t quite convey.

UPDATE: Or see Dana Goldstein’s essentially identical review.

Yglesias

New Gilded Age

Louis Uchitelle profiles the voices of the new guilded age. Some, like Sanford Weill, aren’t just richer than hell, they fully intend to be jerks about it. “We didn’t rely on somebody else to build what we built,” he says at one point “and we shouldn’t rely on somebody else to provide all the services our society needs.” Or there’s Leo Hindrey who observes that Jerek “Deter makes an unbelievable amount of money, but you look at him and you say, ‘Wow, I cannot find another ballplayer with that same set of skills.” Others have their doubts:

A handful of critics among the new elite, or close to it, are scornful of such self-appraisal. “I don’t see a relationship between the extremes of income now and the performance of the economy,” Paul A. Volcker, a former Federal Reserve Board chairman, said in an interview, challenging the contentions of the very rich that they are, more than others, the driving force of a robust economy.

Right. The economy grew at a perfectly rapid clip in a broad-based manner in the 1950s and 60s.

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