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White House celebrates Rosh Hashanah a week early.

Last night, President Bush issued a statement wishing “greetings” to those “celebrating Rosh Hashanah“:

The sound of the Shofar heralds the beginning of a new year and a time of remembrance and renewal for the Jewish people. During these holy days, men and women are called to reflect on their faith and to honor the blessings of creation.

The enduring traditions of Rosh Hashanah remind us of the deep values of faith and family that strengthen our Nation and help guide us each day. As Jewish people around the world come together to celebrate Rosh Hashanah, it is a chance to look to the new year with hope and faith.

Laura and I send our best wishes for a blessed Rosh Hashanah and shanah tovah.

Unfortunately for the White House, Rosh Hashanah does not start until next week — sunset on Sept. 12. (Happy Thanksgiving, Mr. President!)

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(HT: On Deadline)

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Yglesias

Brooks Versus McCain

I was pretty unconvinced by David Brooks Tuesday column about Iraq (watch me gripe here) but it did involve the innovative argumentative tactic of conceding that “The big change in the debate has come about because the surge failed, and it failed in an unexpected way.” Under the circumstances, and since Brooks has historically been a big John McCain booster, I wonder what his take is on this exchange from the GOP debate:

McCain was ready and eager to stress his muscular position in favor of the “surge” in Iraq, and he had plenty of opportunity to do so. The key moment came after Romney said the surge was “apparently working,” and McCain challenged him. “No, not apparently, it’s working,” McCain responded sharply.

To me, this is McCain, formerly the thinking man’s mindless warmonger, acting like a petty goon. But Fred Barnes sees McCain helping himself with these comments while “Mitt Romney hurt himself.” It seems like a really weird mentality on the right.

Politics

O’Hanlon Rips GAO Report: It Is ‘Flat-Out Sloppy’

ohanlon187.gifLast week, Gen. David Petraeus alleged a 75 percent reduction in “sectarian violence” in Iraq and is expected to say the same before Congress. In contrast, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office recently reported that daily attacks in Iraq have “remained unchanged” throughout the escalation.

The Washington Post reports today that national security analysts are questioning the military’s statistics. National Intelligence Estimate authors, Iraq Study Group members, intelligence officials, and academics now “accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators.”

Brookings analyst Michael O’Hanlon, however, attacked the GAO, choosing instead to laud the Pentagon’s distortions. In an analysis only he could offer, O’Hanlon rips the GAO report for being both “overly rigorous” and “flat-out sloppy”:

During his recent tour through Iraq, [O'Hanlon] adds, every local briefing he received from the US military said that attacks in that particular sector were down. In addition, for the GAO to decline to judge whether attacks are sectarian or not is to take an overly rigorous approach to the numbers, says the Brookings expert.

“I just think they were flat-out sloppy,” he says of GAO.

By attacking the GAO, O’Hanlon has defied the community of national security experts he alleges to be a part of and has instead allied himself with the discredited ranks of the Bush administration and right-wing lawmakers.

Ironically, while O’Hanlon bashes the GAO when he doesn’t like what it says, his very own Iraq Index borrows heavily from GAO reports:

iraqindexgao1.GIF

A senior military intelligence official attributed the Pentagon’s drastic reduction in violence “to a desire to provide Petraeus with ammunition for his congressional testimony.” O’Hanlon’s desire to provide that ammunition has left him in lonely territory in Washington.

Yglesias

The Wisdom of Socrates

Tyler Cowen linked the other day to a study which showed that countries whose leaders have formal training in economics don’t perform better economically than countries whose leaders lack such training.

There are obviously all kinds of reasons why this might be the case, but it’s a reminder that, to me, the very most important attribute in a policymaker isn’t to have a ton of knowledge about the issues but, rather, to understand the limits of his knowledge. If I were asked to make an important decision about a subject where I knew I didn’t know what I was talking about, I would try to survey some informed people, pick out the areas of broad consensus, and try to make a decision based on the idea that the consensus points are true and the others are uncertain. This is a good, if imperfect, heuristic. By contrast, if you’re asked to make decisions about some subject where you have a lot of information, you’re going to be inclined to push your pet ideas, and your pet ideas are probably wrong.

This is what’s so dangerous about things like Bush’s notions about Iran. It’s be one thing for the president to be ignorant about Iran, the Persian Gulf more generally, energy markets, etc., if he realized he was ignorant. Instead, though, he seems to have convinced himself that his ignorance is some kind of virtue, exhibiting a deeper level of strategic understanding.

Politics

The J. Dennis Hastert Center.

This December, Wheaton College, outgoing Rep. Dennis Hastert’s (R-IL) alma mater, will “unveil a new academic program and center to house the documents and create an education legacy for Hastert.” The J. Dennis Hastert Center for Economics, Government and Public Policy will have “a conference room in the new center that will double as an office for Hastert.”

Climate Progress

Australia faces the “permanent dry” — as do we

australia-drought.jpgThe story of Australia’s worst dry spell in a thousand years continues to astound. Last year we learned, “One farmer takes his life every four days.” This year over half of Australia’s agricultural land is in a declared drought.

How bad is it? One Australian newspaper is reporting:

DROUGHT will become a redundant term as Australia plans for a permanently drier future, according to the nation’s urban water industries chief….

“The urban water industry has decided the inflows of the past will never return,” Water Services Association of Australia executive director Ross Young said. “We are trying to avoid the term ‘drought’ and saying this is the new reality.”

Unless we take start leading on climate action soon, America faces the same fate: In April, Science (subs. req’d) published research that “predicted a permanent drought by 2050 throughout the Southwest” — levels of aridity comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl would stretch from Kansas to California. What causes this climatic disaster?

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Politics

Right Wing Pushing Petraeus For President

petraeusbutton5.gif The GOP presidential field seemed complete last night when former senator Fred Thompson finally announced he was jumping into the race. But apparently the right-wing isn’t satisfied with its choices and is hoping that the race may have room for one more candidate — Gen. David Petraeus.

Today, the New York Sun has an editorial entitled “Petraeus for President?” In the piece, the editorial writers pen the speech they would like Petraeus to give on the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks:

I am prepared, even eager, to command our forces in this battle — but only on one condition: That you signal that you share my goal of victory. If you think I am mistaken and wish to continue your efforts to undermine me, then I cannot command. Absent that signal, I will resign, effective immediately, and take my case to the voters in a run for the presidency on a campaign to finish the work of winning the war and redeeming the sacrifice of so many Iraqis, allies, and our own GIs.

The Corner’s Kathryn Jean Lopez approvingly linked to the editorial this morning, titling her post “Dream Sequence.” Last spring, The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol told the Harvard Republican Club that he and other “conservative insider[s]” believe “a ticket of Fred Thompson and David Petraeus might be able to avert electoral disaster for the GOP” in 2008.

It’s unlikely that Petraeus would be as warmly received by the American public, which wants withdrawal from Iraq. According to a Rasmussen poll of major political figures, Petraeus has an approval rating of only 24 percent — a number lower than even Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

As author of the “surge,” Petraeus is intimately tied to the administration and its Iraq failures and has acted as Bush’s main PR flack to cover-up mistakes. Some highlights:

Petraeus “softened” the intelligence community’s judgments about Iraq violence. After reviewing an early draft of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, “Petraeus succeeded in having the security judgments softened” to reflect so-called improvements in recent months.

Petraeus claimed the United States has “become liberators again” in Iraq. In June, Petraeus argued there was a “golden hour” of “omnipotence” in the early stages of the war where the U.S. was “viewed as a liberator.” He then claimed that Iraqis perceive the United States to once again be “liberators,” this time freeing them from the bloody civil war instigated as a result of the U.S. occupation.

Petraeus claimed life in Iraq is showing “astonishing signs of normalcy.” In June, Petraeus stated that he sees “astonishing signs of normalcy” in Baghdad, despite a report that found violence had “increased in most provinces, particularly in the outlying areas of Baghdad province.”

Petraeus has never shied away from inserting himself into politics. Just prior to the 2004 presidential election, Petraeus wrote an op-ed defending Bush’s course in Iraq. Recently, he defended Bush’s good friend Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who is facing a tough re-election race because of his support for the Iraq war.

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Politics

‘Bush knew Saddam had no WMD.’

Sidney Blumenthal reports in Salon that President Bush ignored a 2002 Oval Office briefing in which CIA director George Tenet provided him with intelligence that Saddam Hussein did not possess weapons of mass destruction. “Bush dismissed as worthless this information from the Iraqi foreign minister, a member of Saddam’s inner circle, although it turned out to be accurate in every detail.” “The president had no interest in the intelligence,” a CIA officer disclosed. “Bush didn’t give a f**k about the intelligence. He had his mind made up.”

Yglesias

On The Supply Side

Megan McArdle tries to shift the debate now:

Chait, and others writing in this vein, refute the strongest claims of the supply-side movement: that tax cuts produce astonishing growth, or that cutting taxes can increase tax revenue. Then they imply that they have thereby refuted all the economic claims in favor of tax cuts, which they haven’t, not even close.

I don’t think this is what anyone’s doing. Rather, what Chait’s doing — and what I’m doing here — is noting that there is this huge grotesque error lurking at the heart of the Republican Party’s political agenda. Brendan Nyhan has a big ole list of instances of Bush and Cheney citing the notion that tax cuts will pay for themselves if there’s still any doubt as to the centrality of this notion. Meanwhile, the reason people like Jon and I and other liberals spend so much time pointing out that this claim is false is precisely the same as the reason conservatives spend so much time defending it: it’s an extremely potent political claim.

There’s a systematic effort by the right to convince people that tax cuts are not merely beneficial in some ways or beneficial all things considered but that there are actually no tradeoffs whatsoever. Getting that idea taken seriously in the press is very powerful politically, so those of us who don’t approve of the tax cutting policy agenda are very upset about the ability of conservatives to get away with making it, over and over and over again.

Meanwhile, Megan’s comparison of this phenomenon to the idea that Bill Clinton has been known to, for example, overstate the role of Urban Empowerment Zones in spurring the economic growth of the 1990s is a little say. The point about the supply siders isn’t that politicians sometimes lie. The point is that a vast superstructure has grown up around this particular lie. Most national leaders in the Republican Party subscribe to it. Those who don’t, meanwhile, keep quiet about it. The major conservative opinion publications propagate it, as do the conservative talk shows on radio and cable, as do many conservative newspaper columnists, and the major conservative think tanks.

This is a weird phenomenon. If Hillary Clinton got up at the next presidential debate and said “I believe a policy of ‘Medicare for all’ could save enough money to pay for a universal preschool program and more generous Social Security benefits,” Barack Obama would say she was out of her mind, major liberal commentators would agree, and if she started angrily defending the claim against all comers it would be big trouble for her campaign. By contrast, were Mitt Romney to attack John McCain’s embrace of supply-side dogma, that would swiftly destroy Romney‘s campaign as all the major institutions of the right moved to expel him from the movement.

Climate Progress

Comment on Comments Redux

Climate Progress wants your comments! How else am I ever going to get it right? So I have tried to adopt a liberal progressive comment policy.

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I don’t edit comments, even ones that are factually inaccurate–I say, bring it on, Doubters and Deniers! I do delete comments spam that include swearing, vulgarity and gratuitous insults — this discussion is too important to be uncivil, even among those who strongly disagree. That’s one reason I started using the term “Doubters” — Denier is a “strong term and should be reserved for professional misinformers and disinformers.”

I have noticed some people posting comments and leaving a fake email address. I don’t think anonymous posters are a good idea. So I may delete such comments.

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