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Yglesias

Voting While Veiled

Scott Lemieux writes about Québec regulations against voting with a covered face, and efforts to secure an exemption for observant Muslim women. I agree with this bottom line:

Even if the Quebec government can do it, however, we need to ask whether it should. Absent a showing that facial covered was being used to a significant extent to commit voter fraud, I cannot agree that this regulation is remotely justifiable. The state should accommodate minority religions absent a good reason to do so.

Given the generally fraught subject of the relationship of the major western democracies to the Islamic world and to their internal Muslim minorities, it’s worth pointing out that this is a fairly perverse measure. Nobody who feels a serious religious obligation not to uncover her face is going to be shaken from that conviction by being barred from voting. Instead, a regulation of this sort is just going to be experienced as the disenfranchisement of a group of observant Muslim women. What one wants to do, however, is encourage minority groups to participate in mainstream practices and institutions — voting being high on the list — even if that means the practices may need to be slightly modified in order to accommodate such participation.

Culture

Sunday NFL Telecast Blogging

First ‘skins game of the season: excellent. CBS not broadcasting the game in HD for some reason: not at all excellent. I’m a little baffled by this decision. At this point in time, virtually all sporting events seem to be available in HD and nothing get better ratings than the NFL.

UPDATE: HD now on. Yglesias gets results.

Security

Petraeus Gives Exclusive One Hour Interview To Fox

Tomorrow night, after spending the day telling Congress that President Bush’s Iraq escalation should continue, Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will take their PR campaign to a more comfortable setting: Fox News.

On Fox News Sunday this morning, host Chris Wallace announced the interview:

WALLACE: Now a special program note. Tomorrow night at 9:00 p.m. eastern on the Fox News Channel, Brit will have an exclusive interview with General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker about the state of the Iraq war and their testimony to Congress. Please be sure to watch.

Watch it:

In a recent report on Iraq, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office raised concerns that Gen. Petraeus’ numbers do not reflect the reality on the ground, specifically the levels of sectarian violence, which the watchdog said are much higher than Petraeus and the military have been saying.

After concerns were raised over the military’s statistics, it was announced that Petraeus wouldn’t issue a report after all. Now, in another attempt to avoid scrutiny, Petraeus will be taking his cooked stats to a friendly forum on Fox.

Digg It!

UPDATE: Drudge is promoting the Fox News interview.

UPDATE II: Newshounds reports that Fox News has been hiding the truth about the Iraq war ahead of Petraeus’ testimony before Congress.

Yglesias

Where’s The Love?

Kevin Drum notes that the American public expects General David Petraeus will lie under oath to congress “try to make things look better than they are” in Iraq rather than give sworn testimony that “will reflect the situation in Iraq.” It’s worth emphasizing in this regard how much the high regard in which Petraeus is held is a purely inside phenomenon. In particular, politicians and reporters alike who’ve spoken with Petraeus all seem to be very impressed with him. Consequently, other people like me who haven’t ever spoken with him, picked up some of this sentiment through osmosis.

The reality, though, doesn’t really seem to live up to the Legend of David Petraeus, and I’m not sure anything could. And the public is largely unfamiliar with the legend in the first place. So while Democrats should certainly be respectful when he testifies, there’s no reason to be super-deferential. If some other Bush administration appointee showed up and said some stuff that didn’t seem to be true, Democrats would give him shit about it and the public would expect them to. This situation, at the end of the day, isn’t really any different.

UPDATE: Just to drive the point home, Ed Gillespie’s set up a branch of the White House communications staff that’s “hard wired” into Petraeus’ shop. Which, again, is what you’d expect when a Bush appointee goes to congress for some high-profile testimony and illustrates the point that Petraeus should be treated accordingly.

Politics

Asking the right question to Petraeus.

CBS Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer said this morning that one of the lessons we learned from Vietnam “is that we were asking the wrong question” to our generals. “When we have to ask, are we winning? we’re probably losing. Victory is always obvious,” he said.

Let me preempt that question to General Petraeus. We haven’t lost this war, but we’re not winning it. We’re hanging on. Victory would be obvious. Iraqi families would be strolling the streets of Baghdad, and Osama bin Laden would be walking out of a cave somewhere with his hands up.

Instead of that question, let’s hope the general will be asked what we so often forgot during Vietnam: Is this worth the cost in lives and money?

Watch it:

Yglesias

Mapping Terror

One of the worst-appreciated points in the debate over national security policy is that the Bush administration’s post-9/11 policies shouldn’t be understood as counterterrorism measures that have, in some sense or another, “gone too far.” Rather, we need to grasp that they’ve been wholly ineffective and, as best one can tell, merely made things worse. The fact that George Bush’s invasion of Iraq has killed more Americans than Osama bin Laden’s airplane hijacking is one illustration of the point. Another would be this map I’ve borrowed from the Center for American Progress team. The blue marks are pre-9/11 terrorist attacks, the yellow ones are between 9/11 and Iraq, and the red ones are post-Iraq attacks. Iraq and Afghanistan are just marked in red rather than trying to make pins for each attack in those unfortunately countries.

terrormap.png

Some CAP text helps explain what you’re seeing:

A study conducted by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank, research fellows at the Center on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law, found that there was a 607 percent rise in the average yearly incidence of attacks (28.3 attacks per year before and 199.8 after) since the Iraq invasion. When Iraq and Afghanistan, which together account for 80 percent of attacks and 67 percent of fatalities, were excluded, there was still a 35 percent per year increase in the number of jihadist terrorist attacks.

At this point, obviously, we can’t fix the problem with a time machine, but it sure would be nice.

Politics

Kristol: ‘Sober, Serious’ People Want Over 100,000 Troops In Iraq When Bush Leaves Office

Tomorrow, Gen. David Petraeus will testify to Congress to provide his perspective on the escalation in Iraq. The Washington Post reports this morning that the White House political office has been coordinating with Petraeus for months to market Bush’s strategy to the public:

Ed Gillespie, the new presidential counselor, organized daily conference calls at 7:45 a.m. and again late in the afternoon between the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, and the U.S. Embassy and military in Baghdad to map out ways of selling the surge.

Petraeus’ testimony should be seen in that light — another way of “selling the surge.” The American public, however, isn’t fooled about what’s going on. 66 percent say Bush will stick with his policy no matter what Petraeus says, and 53 percent say Petraeus will try to make things in Iraq look better than they are.

This morning, Bill Kristol spoke plainly about the White House’s intentions. “The truth is we are going to have over 100,000 troops in Iraq when George Bush leaves office,” Kristol said. He added “sober Democrats who want to be serious about” Iraq and “who want to think about the consequences of losing” are coming to the view that “of course you can’t just pull out.” Watch it:

The Washington Post reports that CentCom chief Admiral William Fallon has been pushing a plan to substantially slash the number of U.S. combat forces in Iraq, and has been engaged in a bitter clash with Petraeus:

[H]is efforts offended Petraeus’s team, which saw them as unwelcome intrusion on their own long-term planning. The profoundly different views of the U.S. role in Iraq only exacerbated the schism between the two men.

“Bad relations?” said a senior civilian official with a laugh. “That’s the understatement of the century. … If you think Armageddon was a riot, that’s one way of looking at it.”

Only “sober and serious” flacks for the White House believe that a long-term presence in Iraq is a strategically sound decision.

Transcript: Read more

Media

Context, Please

Michael Abramowitz reports for The Washington Post:

White House officials are suggesting that the general’s views will carry great weight with Bush. “He is following through on his commitment to be guided by the people on the ground who know the most about what’s going on,” White House Chief of Staff Joshua B. Bolten said.

I might have thought it relevant at this point to note that Bush’s deference to military expertise is a bit opportunistic. When, for example, the joint chiefs and Bush’s previous set of commanders in Iraq didn’t want a surge, he ditched them in favor of some different commanders.

Yglesias

The Baghdad Focus

pace%201.jpg

Damien Cave and Stephen Farrell, “Troop Buildup, Yielding Slight Gains, Fails to Meet U.S. Goals”

Seven months after the American-led troop “surge” began, Baghdad has experienced modest security gains that have neither reversed the city’s underlying sectarian dynamic nor created a unified and trusted national government.

One thing to keep in mind about the “surge” is that the overall increase in the number of American soldiers wasn’t especially large relative to either the pre-existing size of the deployment or to the size of Iraq. But along with the “surge” of additional American forces into the country, there was a “surge” of forces away from non-Baghdad portions of Iraq into the capital. It would be extraordinary if that policy didn’t manage to produce “modest security gains” in Baghdad at the expense of problems elsewhere. The question is why one might think this kind of concentration of forces might be a good idea.

Roughly speaking, there are two possible ideas. One is that the security gains might be large enough to reach some kind of tipping point. You start with X troops in Baghdad. Then you “surge” up to X + Y troops. This surge produces a self-sustaining new situation, so now you surge down to fewer than X troops in Baghdad, allowing you to surge up elsewhere. That, though, hasn’t happened. The “underlying sectarian dynamic” is the same.

Alternatively, one might think that the national capital is uniquely important to political events, and that a special focus on Baghdad security might create the environment for political reconciliation. That, though, hasn’t happened either. The whole thing’s failed. Now people would like us to believe that other “bottom up” trends compensate for the failure of the plan. But since this cuts directly against the logic of the policy we’ve been pursuing since January, there’s no reason to think that anything we’re doing is having a substantial positive impact on whatever decentralized processes in Iraq may or may not be evolving in a good situation. The scorecard can’t just credit the US military presence for any good thing that happens anywhere in Iraq, while simultaneously arguing that without the military presence every bad thing about Iraq would be worse.

DoD photo by Staff Sgt. D. Myles Cullen, U.S. Air Force

Politics

‘Strolling’ around Baghdad as a Westerner is ‘suicidal.’

In an interview with Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks, Newsweek correspondent Babak Dehghanpisheh — who works in Baghdad — dismissed the rosy reports of congressional delegations that visit Iraq for brief periods of time. From the interview:

DEHGHANPISHEH: You know, I don’t know of any Westerners who go strolling around the streets of Baghdad, and unless you do have what you mentioned; a convoy of Humvees or choppers to back you up for protection. Then I think it would be suicidal.

UYGUR: You think it would be suicidal? So, if you’re a Westerner, the idea of going out for a stroll in Baghdad, you’re calling it suicidal. Your chances of getting killed or kidnapped is incredibly high?

Babak Dehghanpisheh: I would say it’s a hundred percent.

Watch it:

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