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Thompson’s NIE Conspiracy Theory: Maybe Iran ‘Leaked’ Intel To ‘Divert Our Attention A Little Bit’

After the intelligence community released its NIE that concluded Iran had halted its nuclear program in 2003, conservatives have generated a host of conspiracy theories. The intelligence community is “trying to — once again — influence our national elections,” said right-wing blog Strata-Sphere. Neoconservative Norman Podhoretz said that the intel officials may have tried to sabotage President Bush.

Last night on PBS’s Charlie Rose, former senator Fred Thompson added his own conspiracy theory to the mix, stating that Iran may have deliberately “leaked” the information on their lack of nuclear program to distract the U.S. “Nobody knows” if Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, he declared:

We’re just going to have to wait and see, why they would start it up and they would move away without telling anybody. Unless of course they have leaked this themselves. So, just a bunch of unanswered questions. [...]

And this is perhaps a weak, faint or weak attempt to cause us to divert our attention a little bit.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/12/thomsonnie3.320.240.flv]

Today, on Red State, Thompson expanded on his disdain for the NIE:

The accuracy of the latest NIE on Iran should be received with a good deal of skepticism. Our intelligence community has often underestimated the intentions of adversaries, including Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and North Korea. … It’s awfully convenient for a lot of people: the administration gets to say its policies worked; the Democrats get to claim we should have eased up on Iran a long time ago: and Russia and China can claim sanctions on Iran are not necessary. Who benefits from all this? Iran.

Thompson’s conspiracies aren’t a far cry from the Bush administration’s reactions. In July, administration officials “expressed skepticism” about an intercept from “a senior Iranian military official” complaining “that the nuclear program had been shuttered,” believing it was “part of a clever Iranian deception campaign.”

UPDATE: Thompson suggested that his skeptical eye towards the NIE was something he learned at home: “Remember what your mama told you — if something appears to be too good to be true, it probably is.”

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Politics

Conversion

Via Ross Douthat, Noah Millman and Russell Arben Fox offer their views of what Mitt Romney ought to say in his big speech about religion. Probably he should stay in keeping with his main campaign themes and just tell Republican primary voters that he’s willing to say whatever they want him to say about Mormonism and explain that he’s only had trouble with this issue because it’s not clear what people want from him.

For that matter, if you could just replay this whole primary campaign, it seems to me that Romney’s big mistake was failing to flip-flop on the question of his faith. Back when he was a culturally moderate Bay Stater, religion wasn’t especially central to Romney’s political identity. And while flip-flopping on “the issues” is generally held in low esteem, flip-flopping on religion — converting, in short — is usually celebrated as long as people like your new religion. So why not find Jesus? Back when he was considering that stem cell bill, Romney could have consulted with a wide array of religious leaders including, say, a baptist minister. And maybe the minister in question is really convincing and Romney decides to abandon the faith into which he was born. Religious right types have to be prepared to believe conversion stories, and the experience of being “born again” would be the perfect opportunity to flip-flip on an array of issues, lending the flops a pseudo-plausible veneer of respectability. And who, then, would speak of Mike Huckabee?

Climate Progress

WSJ launches Luddite attack on climate scientists and Al Gore

limbo.jpgThe bar for Wall Street Journal editorials, in the journalistic equivalent of limbo dancing, keeps dropping. In a piece titled, “The Science of Gore’s Nobel” (UPDATE: Open access link), Holman W. Jenkins Jr. of the WSJ ed board, manages to slander the media, Al Gore, the Nobel Committee, and all climate scientists — without offering any facts to back up the attacks:

The media will be tempted to blur the fact that his medal, which Mr. Gore will collect on Monday in Oslo, isn’t for “science”…. Yet now one has been awarded for promoting belief in manmade global warming as a crisis.

Why would the media blur the Nobel Peace Prize with a science prize when Gore isn’t a scientist? They wouldn’t, of course, but this imagined media blunder allows Jenkins — a journalist — to make the subject of his piece climate science.

What is especially bizarre about the WSJ piece is that Gore shared the Nobel Peace Price with thousands of scientists who form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — but Jenkins never mentions that fact at all. Again, that’s because he wants to attack the Nobel committee for “promoting belief in manmade global warming as a crisis.”

In fact, the award was not given for promoting “belief” — a pejorative word as Jenkins uses it — but for promoting “knowledge” — as the Committee said, the award was given for “efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.”

By omitting mention of the IPCC, Jenkins can ignore the tremendous scientific evidence for the theory of human-caused global warming and the urgent need for action. Jenkins attacks the international scientific consensus without providing a single piece of counterevidence — or any understanding of either the nature of the consensus or the difference between “belief” and “scientific knowledge.”

Because the consensus is so important, and now, so alarming, it is worth understanding what it is — and what it isn’t — since conservatives must either ramp up their attack on it — or accept the clarion call for immediate government action (something most of them cannot stomach politically no matter what the science says).

Let’s start with what the consensus isn’t — ably set out by Jenkins:

Read more

Politics

WSJ editor insults scientists, attacks Gore.

In an op-ed this morning mocking former Vice President Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize win, Wall Street Journal editorial board member Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. “attacks the international scientific consensus without providing a single piece of counterevidence.” In order to cast doubt on the consensus, Jenkins insults the entire scientific community as people who “do not wait for proof“:

It may seem strange that scientists would participate in such a phenomenon. It shouldn’t. Scientists are human; they do not wait for proof; many devote their professional lives to seeking evidence for hypotheses (especially well-funded hypotheses) they’ve chosen to believe.

Climate Progress ably takes Jenkins to task for his insults and distortions.

Politics

Wide Open

The Democratic race has gotten a bit tedious to think about since the arguments are all so well-trod, but Rasmussen’s national daily tracking poll shows the Republican race in all its fascination:

GOP%20Race.png

In essence, the candidates all seem to be close enough in national polling — and the situation sufficientlly fast-changing — that nobody’s far enough ahead to have a meaningful advantage and nobody’s so far down as to be out of it. It seems to me that if Huckabee wins Iowa, that still would leave ample time for an establishment rally around John McCain if they want to go in that direction.

Politics

Like The State Department, DoJ Policies Discriminate Against Gay And Lesbian Employees

bushmukasey.jpgAs ThinkProgress noted yesterday, Michael Guest — the first openly gay man to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve as a U.S. Ambassador — resigned from the State Department last month, “in order to protest rules and regulations that he believes are unfair to the same-sex partners of Foreign Service officers.” Guest said he chose to resign after “absolutely nothing…resulted from” his direct appeals to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for policy changes.

The State Department is not the only branch of the Bush administration that explicitly discriminates against gay and lesbian employees. In 2003, then-Attorney General John Ashcroft barred DOJ Pride, an organization of almost 200 gay and lesbian employees of the Justice Department, from holding “an annual event celebrating ‘gay pride month’ at the agency’s headquarters” while allowing other employee groups to do so.

Though the decision was eventually reversed after pressure from gay rights groups and members of Congress, the Department has continued other discriminatory policies. During his confirmation hearing, Sen. Russell Feingold (D-WI) asked Attorney General Michael Mukasey if he would “stop the disparate treatment of gay and lesbian employees” at DOJ:

The department sponsors commemorative events to recognize the contributions of various minority groups, but under Attorney General Ashcroft and Gonzales, in contrast to Attorney General Reno, it has refused to do so for the GLBT Americans.

In addition, while DOJ Pride, an organization of GLBT employees, is permitted to use department space to hold events, it is prohibited from advertising those events on public billboards, in department buildings, again, unlike organizations for minority employees at the department.

Similarly, the department refuses to recruit at job fairs aimed at GLBT attorneys but sends recruiters to job fairs aimed at other minority groups.

Responding to Feingold, Mukasey said that he couldn’t “understand the reason for that treatment” and that he was “going to” do something about it. But Mukasey is unlikely to feel pressure from the President to follow through on his promise.

Not only has the administration threatened to veto legislation barring employment discrimination based on sexual identity, but President Bush has refused throughout his tenure to even observe June as Gay Pride Month.

Yglesias

Caution

Jonah Goldberg’s not happy that people are happy with the new National Intelligence Estimate:

The attitude among many people — like say, John Edwards — is that we dodged a bullet with this NIE. But that’s only true if this NIE is right. Indeed, as a matter of national security, it seems to me one could make the case that it would be better for the NIE to be wrong the other way. That is to say, if the NIE is wrong, better it be wrong on the side of caution. Which would you rather: An NIE that says Iran isn’t pursuing nuclear weapons when it really is? Or, an NIE that says Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons when it really isn’t? How you answer that question probably says a lot about how you view foreign policy generally.

I think this kind of thinking was quite prevalent before the invasion of Iraq. Before 9/11, when contemplating starting wars with other countries, most people were inclined to err on the side of caution — which is to say not starting wars. After 9/11, things looked different. Maybe the Iraq situation was a bit unclear, but best to err on the side of caution — which was to say starting a war.

It’s easy to understand how that happened, but surely the notion that alarmism is a form of caution should have died in the sands of Iraq.

Politics

3 out of 4 Fox primetime shows ignored NIE.

Early Monday afternoon, the Bush administration released a new National Intelligence Estimate revealing that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Though the blockbuster revelation was featured prominently that night in all three network newscasts, it was all but ignored on Fox News. Steve Benen reports that on Monday night, only one of Fox’s primetime shows — Special Report with Brit Hume — even mentioned the report. On Tuesday, after President Bush held a news conference, the shows did cover it, but with only conservatives and administration supporters discussing it.

Politics

O’Reilly and Beck get chummy over Islamofascism.

Yesterday evening, right-wing talk show hosts Glenn Beck and Bill O’Reilly teamed up on the O’Reilly Factor. Beck criticized the University of Florida for admonishing the campus College Republicans for airing the film Obsession, which students promoted with posters stating, “Radical Islam Wants You Dead.” O’Reilly and Beck agreed, “They missed 9/11 in Gainesville”:

BECK: And in the — when they played it, they put out a flier all around the campus that said militant Islam wants you dead. Well, the university came out with a statement and said how dare you say that? That’s hate speech. That’s completely inaccurate. I mean, Bill, would you agree…

O’REILLY: Well, they missed it. They missed 9/11 in Gainesville. You know they missed it. That was the only city in the country that didn’t get the broadcast around the world.

BECK: Right.

O’REILLY: I don’t know why, but they are looking into the technical problem.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/12/beckbillo.320.240.flv]

At one point, O’Reilly said, “But you’ve got to understand something, Mr. Beck. You and I are put into that extreme category by many people.”

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