ThinkProgress Logo

Politics

McCain’s Big Win

I continue to march in lockstep with my comrades-of-convenience National Review against the attempted coronation of John McCain. For example, did you know what Michael Graham notes:

In 2000, running against George W. Bush and the entire Carroll Campbell machine in South Carolina, John McCain got 42% of the vote, and 240,000 votes out of 573,000 or so cast.

Tonight, he got 33% of the vote in a field where his top challengers—Romney and Giuliani—aren’t even running, and 135,000 actual votes. If just the same people who voted for McCain in 2000 had voted for him today, he would have won 50+% of the South Carolina vote. That would have been truly impressive.

Go, Mitt, go! (I’d also note that the open cheerleading for Romney in progressive circles seems to me to have gotten shockingly little play in the world of conservative commentary)

UPDATE: Let me note that while I do think Romney is a weak general election candidate, one shouldn’t exaggerate this to much. In the modern era, I think we can expect all presidential elections to be relatively close and Romney does have a certain “I know what I’m doing” appeal that I think the American people mostly haven’t seen yet.

Climate Progress

Chapter Nine Excerpt: The U.S.-China Suicide Pact on Climate

The international dimension of climate in Hell and High Water (paperback now at Amazon):

The “international fairness” issue is the emotional home run. Given the chance, Americans will demand that all nations be part of any international global warming treaty. Nations such as China, Mexico and India would have to sign such an agreement for the majority of Americans to support it.

–Frank Luntz, 2002

We don’t need an international treaty with rules and regulations that will handcuff the American economy or our ability to make our environment cleaner, safer and healthier.

–Frank Luntz, 2002

What country’s insatiable thirst for oil imports is most responsible for the tightening world market since the mid- 1990s? Hint: It’s not China. From 1995 to 2004, China’s annual imports grew by 2.8 million barrels a day. Ours grew 3.9 million. China sucks up about 6 percent of all global oil exports. We demand 25 percent, even though China has a billion more consumers.

china-us.jpgIn what year will China’s total contribution to climate change from burning fossil fuels surpass ours? Hint: Climate change is driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and those concentrations have been driven by cumulative emissions since the dawn of the industrial revolution. While China’s CO2 emissions might well exceed ours by 2010, its cumulative emissions might not surpass ours until after 2050.

Read more

Politics

Last Word on Electability

I’m going to try as hard as I can to resist the temptation to write further about the electability question but what Jon Chait said. I’d only add that the McCain/Romney gap seems much bigger than the Obama/Clinton gap to me; the generally unfavorable political climate for Republicans makes the specific choice of nominee unusually important.

Media

Historical Document

From The New York Times archives, David Frum writes on July 7, 1999 that the country needs to be more fiscally prudent:

It’s time to blow the froth off the latte and make some prudent plans. Otherwise, the Government is going to find itself three or four years from now in the same jam as its citizens: pacing fretfully at 2 o’clock in the morning through a $100,000 kitchen renovation, wondering how on earth it talked itself into the delusion that it was going to finance its obligations with a big, soggy mass of Surplus.com shares.

Later, of course, Frum went on to work for the Bush administration where, in lieu of prudent plans, the decision was made to squander all the money in question on a set of giant tax cuts for rich people. Then to squander more money in a giant giveaway to drug and insurance companies. And to squander more money on a pointless and destructive war in Iraq. And more tax cuts! Always, always more tax cuts.

Politics

Cheney emails missing from day leak probe started.

Last week, House Oversight Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) revealed that the White House failed to preserve emails for at least 473 separate days. Waxman’s report said “Vice President Cheney’s office showed no electronic messages on 16 occasions from September 2003 to May 2005.” Among the sixteen days for which email are missing from Vice President Cheney’s office “is Sept. 30, 2003, the same day the day the Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced they were investigating who outed former CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson.”

UPDATE: CREW has produced a report analyzing the major national news events that were going on around the dates of the missing White House emails.

UPDATE II: Marcy Wheeler has more.

Yglesias

True Tests

Dan Balz writes of Florida for The Washington Post that it “looms as a potential showdown in the GOP nomination battle not only because of its size and importance but because it will be the first place this year where all the leading candidates are competing.” Perhaps. On the other hand, Pollster.com currently has things as Rudy 21.7 percent, McCain 20 percent, Huckabee 18.3 percent, Romney 17.9 percent, Thompson 8 percent, and Paul 5 percent.

Now Florida’s a winner-take-all state, so if Rudy really does sneak ahead of McCain he’ll end up with a nice parcel full of delegates. That’s real and that matters. Still, as a test of strength Rudy’s ability to secure 21.7 percent of the vote against a badly divided field wouldn’t be particular impressive. Similarly, if Rudy’s slide continues and McCain gets a boost and he wins with 22-23 percent, that wouldn’t be particularly impressive. The very depth of the field makes it all-but-certain that the winner will be pulling in a pretty pathetic plurality which, in turn, makes it hard to see this as a decisive test. Simply put, there are too many candidates in the race.

Photo by Flickr user Bryan Sereny used under a Creative Commons license

Yglesias

Asia Catching Cold

Economic troubles spreading around the world:

In recent months, some emerging market investors have preached the idea that fast-growing areas like most of Asia have “decoupled” from developed markets, meaning the economies of the two groups no longer move in tandem. The investing adage “When the United States sneezes, Asia catches a cold” no longer applies, the proponents of decoupling argue.

But a recent slump in emerging markets, capped by Monday’s slide, means investor sentiment is changing.

Indeed, this seems doubly wrong. The big hope for avoiding a recession, or for keeping a recession relatively short and painless, is that a pickupin exports tied to the declining dollar will cushion the employment situation even as the building sector collapses. That, however, means that a sharp decline in US imports from Asia is all-but-inevitable. That’s what would happen in a recession, but it’s also what would happen in the most-plausible non-recession scenario.

Politics

Electability

Live on YouTube, sundry pundits discuss the fact that Barack Obama would be a stronger general election candidate matched up against John McCain. As readers know, that’s certainly my view. And it’s certainly the view of Democrats running in “red” states who feel he’d be better for down-ballot candidates than would Hillary Clinton.

It’s been my experience, though, that it’s basically impossible to convince people on this score. At the end of the day, there’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding this question and there’s nothing one could do to prove things one way or another. Given the uncertainty, it’s open to people who like Clinton to just insist that, well, sure, Obama’s more popular now but things would look different after a campaign.

Media

Obama v. Krugman Round A Million

I think this is getting a bit silly. In his column, Paul Krugman seems to suggest that the main reason the Clinton administration failed to bring about major progressive change in the 1990s is that they didn’t talk enough smack about Ronald Reagan. And now on the blog we learn that Clinton is clearly the more progressive alternative to Obama because here’s one quote of Clinton saying something lefty sounding and here’s one quote which Krugman insists on willfully misconstruing.

Whatever happened to the Krugman who used to urge journalists to worry less about what rhetorical style politicians adopt and more looking at their policies? Didn’t this all start because Krugman thought Obama’s health care plan, while constituting an improvement over the status quo, isn’t as good as Hillary Clinton’s? That’s what I remember. And I think it was a fair point. But now we’re supposed to believe that Obama’s the second coming of Ronald Reagan. Or something. Meanwhile, I wish Krugman would at least acknowledge that there are foreign policy issues facing the country and some of us think they’re important. I don’t think “that Candidate B [i.e, Hillary Clinton], despite the progressive talk, is just Bush the third” but at times she’s shown a disturbing amount of common ground with Bush’s foreign policy views. At other times, she’s seemed quite good, but her record on Iraq is bad.

Back to the beginning, I think it’s extremely clear that the meager results of the Clinton administration relate, in the first instance, to the large number of conservatives in congress when Clinton was president, and in the second instance to the moderate views of Clinton administration figures. An inability to upend narratives about Reagan was neither here nor there. In terms of congress, again, one thing a lot of people like about Obama is that Democratic politicians running in marginal areas overwhelmingly seem to believe that they would do better with Obama at the head of the ticket.

That said, I’ll freely grant that I’m getting a bit tired of defending Obama and his campaign. Stuff like this from Krugman clearly hurts them, but the easiest way to deflect claims that Obama is the more conservative choice would be for Obama to say so himself in a clear and direct way. Given that Clinton is very much running as her husband’s wife, it should hardly be impossible to make the case that establishing continuity with the moderate Clinton administration is the moderate choice.

Media

Going Free

As you can read here in The New York Times, starting tomorrow articles from The Atlantic will all be available for free online. That’ll be a boon to bloggers and the Web in general in at least two ways. First, it’ll let us link to and discuss new magazine content as it comes out with a free and clear conscience. Second, and in some ways even more exciting, it means that I’ll be able to mine the magazine’s extensive 150+ years of archives willy-nilly for interesting tidbits and noteworthy perspectives on events.

That said, a subscription is still a great bargain at less than $25 a year. You can read it on a plane or a train, you can see the visual elements of the magazine in all their intended glory, and you can leave recent issues scattered about your house so as to suggest to your friends that you’re the sort of intelligent person who reads highbrow magazines.

Older

Newer

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up