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Model of the Day

Economic model of the day, that is. Ryan Avent excerpts a bit from an interesting paper by Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn, and Jordan Rappaport. Let WRich be a rich person’s opportunity cost of time, F be the fixed time cost of public transportation, and C be the fixed time cost of driving you get:

Alternatively, if WRichF < C then some rich people will take public transportation. In this case, a four ring city can be one outcome. In the inner ring, the rich take public transportation. In the next ring, the poor take public transportation. In the third ring, the rich drive and there may be a fourth ring where the poor drive.

That seems about right for some of our larger metro areas.

Security

Petraeus: I Need Another Six Months To Determine Whether ‘We’ve Reached A Turning Point’

In the past few months, conservatives such as Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) have been quick to declare victory in Iraq. In November, McCain said that “we’ve succeeded militarily.” A day later, Lieberman declared that “we are winning” because “we have made progress” in “one of the most remarkable turnarounds in modern military history.”

Gen. David Petraeus, however, appeared on NBC this morning and rebutted the declarations of mission accomplished and said that he’ll need at least another Friedman Unit before he can make a judgment:

We think we won’t know that we’ve reached a turning point until we’re six months past it. We have repeatedly said that there is no lights at the end of the tunnel that we’re seeing. We’re certainly not dancing in the end zone or anything like that.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/01/petraeusiraqnbc.320.240.flv]

These six months appear to be never-ending, and are used by the right wing to constantly beg more time for the war. As The New York Times reported in September, Petraeus recommended to Congress that “decisions on the contentious issue of reducing the main body of the American troops in Iraq be put off for six months.”

With timelines like these, U.S. troops might actually be stuck in Iraq for a million years.

Digg It!

Transcript: Read more

Politics

Iraq vets claim war crimes were ‘encouraged.’

On Saturday, members of Iraq Veterans Against the War spoke at an event in Watertown, NY, and charged that their unit commanders encouraged them to commit war crimes:

“The killing of innocent civilians is policy,” said veteran Mike Blake. “It’s unit policy and it’s Army policy. It’s not official policy, but it’s what’s happens on the ground everyday. It’s what unit commanders individually encourage.

Veteran Matt Howard concurred: “These decisions are coming from the top down,” Howard said. “The tactics that we use, the policies that the military engages, will create situations, create dynamics, create — ultimately — atrocity.”

Culture

Mixed Feelings

As a human being, I’m obviously glad that Etan Thomas seems to be well on the road to recovery. As a Wizards fan, I’m worried. Brendan Haywood is playing his best basketball ever and playing a big role in keeping the Wizards good even with Gilbert Arenas out, and Andray Blatche and Oleksiy Pecherov both look like reasonably promising guys who deserve a chance to develop. Thomas’ return just promises to throw a good situation into disarray.

Politics

Thompson Out

Fred Thompson is dropping out. Marc Ambinder offers a Thompson campaign retrospective. He says “in many ways, he tried to occupy a space that John McCain more credibly occupied; national security strength, straight talk on the economic challenges facing the country and resiliency.” Maybe. Certainly I’d assume that Thompson, who’s pals with McCain, hopes that’s right and his pool of supporters drifts that way. But in most regards I’d say Thompson tried to occupy a space that Mitt Romney less credibly but more effectively occupied — plain-vanilla conservative.

Yglesias

Mrs. X’s Story

From The Atlantic‘s incomparable archives and in honor of the 35th anniversary of Roe v. Wade let me give you August of 1965′s “One Woman’s Abortion” by the mysterious Mrs. X:

I set out recently to find an abortionist in the large Eastern city where I live. My husband and I are in our mid-forties and have three children. When I discovered that I was pregnant for the fourth time, my husband and I considered the situation as honestly as we could. We both admitted that we lacked the physical resources to face 2 A.M. feedings, diapers, and the seemingly endless cycle of measles, mumps, and concussions of another child. Years of keeping a wary eye on expenditures (a new suit for my husband every two years and one for me every five) had allowed us to set up a fund which we felt would enable the children to attend reasonably good colleges away from home if some financial assistance in the form of grants or scholarships could be obtained. Since my husband’s income has reached its zenith, it was plain that one of the four would have to forgo all or part of a chance at higher education. The part-time secretarial work which I had been doing for some years to augment our income would have to stop since the revenue it produces would not cover baby-sitting fees. We have no rich uncles likely to make our children their beneficiaries. We have also had sufficient experience living to acknowledge that while the Lord will sometimes provide, He may be busy looking after somebody else when you need Him most.

For further discussion, let me just note that I think the effort to convince even pro-choice people that there’s something legally dodgy about Roe ought to be resisted.

Politics

Bolton: ‘Pressure’ Is On Israel To Strike Iran Because NIE Made U.S. Attack ‘Highly Unlikely’

boltonhands.jpgIn December, after the new NIE on Iran was released, former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton established himself as one of the top hawks trying to undermine its credibility, going so far as to call for a congressional witch-hunt into anti-Bush “people in the intelligence community.”

During his trip to Israel this week for the the Herzliya Conference, Bolton has ratcheted up his criticisms of the report, saying on Sunday that the “illegitimate politicization” of the NIE was “a quasi-coup by the intelligence services.”

On Monday, Bolton said that the NIE put “pressure” on Israel to strike Iran because “the likelihood of American use of force has been dramatically reduced”:

“One can say with some assurance that in the next year the use of force by the United States is highly unlikely,” Bolton told AFP on the sidelines of the Herzliya conference on the balance of Israel’s national security.

That increases the pressure on Israel in that period of time… if it feels Iran is on the verge of acquiring that capability, it brings the decision point home to use force,” he said.

Reacting to Bolton, a “senior Israeli security official” told Agence France-Presse that “one should listen very closely to what Bolton has to say.”

Asked about Bolton’s comments today, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refused to refute him, only saying that Bolton is “a private citizen”:

QUESTION: (Inaudible) on Israel and he basically told us (inaudible) because they said the Bush administration (inaudible).

RICE: John Bolton is a private citizen. He can say what he wants.

Bolton’s comments join a chorus of conservative hawks who continue to argue, in the words of National Review’s Mark Steyn, that a “the bombing option is becoming the only one that will be left” in regards to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Politics

Thompson drops out.

Fox News reports that former Tennesee senator Fred Thompson is dropping out of the Republican race for President. Via Fox reporter Carl Cameron:

Fox News has learned that Fred Thompson is returning to his home in McLean VA and plans to withdraw from the race. He has begun calling friends, family and supporters and telling them his campaign is over.

fredout.JPG

Politics

Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) writes on impeachment:

“If we fail to take action to either impeach or repair the damage, then the next president will ‘inherit’ unchecked powers. Unchecked powers are unacceptable no matter who is president.”

UPDATE: “Nine out of 23 Democratic members of the House Judiciary Committee favor starting impeachment hearings against Vice-President Dick Cheney. Six of the nine are co-sponsors of H.R. 799, which contains three articles of impeachment,” according to CounterPunch.

Politics

McCain and the Economy

John McCain’s unquestionably a popular figure, but David Kusnet is also surely right that it’s hard to see him winning in bleak economic times if he keeps talking the way he was talking at his South Carolina victory speech. There’s just nothing in there whatsoever to suggest that McCain has any awareness of anyone experiencing any kind of financial difficulties. What’s more, I think it’ll actually be quite hard for him to pivot in a more sympathetic direction. After all, throughout all his flipping and flopping and back again of the past ten years, the “cares about people in economic pain” persona is one he’s never tried on. And I think he’s never tried it on because it runs contrary to his entire schtick, which is all about finding causes greater than ourselves, salvation through nationalism, etc., etc. On some emotional level, he probably thinks a woman who needs to declare bankruptcy because the racked up massive credit card bills while her uninsured husband was dying of cancer should just grin and bear it the way he did as a POW.

After what he’s been through, it’s probably hard to muster a ton of sympathy for workaday problems. And yet that’s what politics is all about. By the same token, though, I think it would be foolish to confidently predict economic conditions eleven months from now. Maybe things will get worse . . . maybe they’ll turn around. But if they don’t turn around, it does seem like potentially big trouble for McCain.

Photo courtesy of Victory NH

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