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McCain and the Economy

Brendan Nyhan calls me out for too much psychologizing in my last post on John McCain. And it’s true. I don’t like the guy. He’s not the worst politician on the planet, but he’s pretty bad, and I’m pretty sure he’s the most overrated politician so thinking about him aggravates me. But these would be my sober-minded, non-psychic points about John McCain and the economy:

All of this leads me to conclude that John McCain would not govern very well on economic policy issues, and would fare poorly in a campaign that focused heavily on economic problems.

Politics

Al Gore releases video endorsing gay marriage.

In a recent video for his Current TV network, former Vice President Al Gore offers “a forceful endorsement” of same-sex marriage, saying that “gay men and women ought to have the same rights as heterosexual men and women — to make contracts, to have hospital visiting rights, to join together in marriage.” “Shouldn’t we be promoting the kind of faithfulness and loyalty to ones partner regardless of sexual orientation?” added Gore. Watch it:

UPDATE: Evan Wolfson, founder of Freedom to Marry, praises Gore for getting “it right” and showing “what leadership really means.”

Yglesias

Bail Me Out!

I’m no monetary policy expert, but Clive Crook’s point that it seems a bit misguided for the Fed to respond so dramatically to stock market news certainly looks sound to me. After all, interest-rate decisions and forecasts about interest-rate decisions are one of the determinants of stock market prices. Insofar as people get the idea that the Fed will act directly to avoid stock market price declines, that seems like something that will feed back into stock purchasing decisions in a potentially destructive way.

Politics

Bush Appointee Overruled EPA Staff In Order To Deny California Waiver On Emissions

stephjohnson.gif In December, EPA administration Stephen Johnson rejected “California’s long-standing request for a waiver from federal law to be able to implement its own landmark regulations to slash greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles.”

According to new documents released today by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Johnson, a political appointee, overruled his own staff, who in October recommended that California receive the waiver. According to the case laid out in briefing slides, EPA staff believed that legally, the agency could not deny California’s waiver:

SLIDE – “If We Grant . . .”

· “Likely suit by manufacturers”
· “EPA is almost certain to win such a suit”
· “Grant will likely allow CA standards to go into effect . . . ”
· “Grant would be generally consistent with federal GHG rule”

SLIDE – “If We Deny . . .”

· “Almost certain lawsuit by California”
· “EPA likely to lose suit”

Substantively, the staff also argued in this October presentation that California needed the waiver in order to mitigate the effects of climate change:

California continues to have compelling and extraordinary conditions in general (geography, climatic, human and motor vehicle populations – many such conditions are vulnerable to climate change conditions) as confirmed by several recent EPA decisions.

Earlier this month, California and 15 other states sued the EPA over its refusal to allow them to set their own tougher vehicle-emissions standards. Under the 1970 Clean Air Act, California has regularly been allowed to set its own standards and has emerged as a “national leader in developing air quality protections.”

Johnson’s decision to overrule his staff follows a trend by President Bush’s political appointees to put politics over science. In 2003, for example, FDA Commissioner Lester Crawford decided to block over-the-counter access to the morning-after pill, despite recommendations by the agency’s scientists. Career professionals at the Justice Department who advised rejecting Georgia’s discriminatory voter ID law were also overruled by the department’s political appointees.

(HT: The Crypt)

Digg It!

Politics

Sweet, Sweet Oversight

House Democrats once again postpone a vote on holding Josh Bolten and Harriet Miers in contempt of congress for refusing to testify in the US Attorneys matter. There’s some kind of nominal rationale for this, but an anonymous “top Democratic insider” says:

When we have the votes, we’ll go ahead with this. Right now, the votes are just not there.

Basically, we seem to have some fraidy-cat Dems out there who for some reason don’t think picking a fight with the White House over their gross distortions of the rule of law would be a smart idea and then we have a weak leadership that for some reason doesn’t want to bring them into line.

Yglesias

The Trouble With Freemasons

The next very serious, thoughtful argument that has never been made before with such care or in such detail is ready to hit the shelves soon:

He also wheels out the novel claim that he’s being attacked because he’s “hit something real,” a defensive gesture I’ll be sure to remember when my new project, Freemasons Rule the World, hits bookstores next month. I expect to take some knocks for my argument — which essentially exposes the fact that Freemasons control the world — but I’m pretty sure my anti-Masonic friends will understand that I’m actually making a very cautious, thoughtful argument. In spite of what the title suggests — it comes from an episode of The Simpsons, an allusion my Masonic critics are bound to miss — I don’t argue that contemporary Freemasons actually control the world. Instead, I’m interested in the ways that important Freemasons around the world exert control over lots of things that are in the world, like governments, the global economy, science, and those sorts of things. It’s a work of political theory.

Sounds provocative! (I actually live near a Masonic temple on 10th and U which a few months ago started renting out its first floor to CVS, a company that I think really might control the world)

Politics

Tag Team

I missed Holly Yeager’s January 11 column on the thin “bench” of potential female presidential candidates behind Hillary Clinton, but it’s still all true two weeks later and worth reading. I found it, meanwhile, while reading this excellent post by Mark Schmitt (aka Holly Yeager’s husband) taking note of the incredible run of bad luck that struck down a whole string of promising 1970s-vintage New York political women.

Security

FLASHBACK: Economists Predicted That A Prolonged U.S. Presence In Iraq Could Lead To A Recession

In yesterday’s press briefing, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Dana Perino about the tie between the current U.S. economy and the Iraq war. Perino quickly dismissed the reporter’s question, insisting that the U.S. economy has been “very strong” and adding that the money was necessary to “take the fight to the enemy” after 9/11. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/01/perinoiraqeco.320.240.flv]

Oil prices are at approximately $88 a barrel, although they have dropped from the record high of $100 earlier this month. As Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz recently noted in Vanity Fair, “The soaring price of oil is clearly related to the Iraq war. The issue is not whether to blame the war for this but simply how much to blame it.”

Before the war, economists were predicting that oil prices at just $75 a barrel could potentially send the U.S. economy into a recession. Therefore, the current economic situation should not come as a complete shock to the Bush administration. A look at economists’ pre-war predictions:

“A war against Iraq could cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars, play havoc with an already depressed domestic economy and tip the world into recession because of the adverse effect on oil prices, inflation and interest rates, an academic study [by William Nordhaus, Sterling professor of economics at Yale University] has warned.” [Independent, 11/16/02]

If war with Iraq drags on longer than the few weeks or months most are predicting, corporate revenues will be flat for the coming year and will put the U.S. economy at risk of recession, according to a poll of chief financial officers.” [CBS MarketWatch, 3/20/03]

“If the conflict wears on or, worse, spreads, the economic consequences become very serious. Late last year, George Perry at the Brookings Institution ran some simulations and found that after taking into account a reasonable use of oil reserves, a cut in world oil production of just 6.5 percent a year would send the United States and the world into recession.” [Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration, 10/2/02]

“Gerd H¤usler, the IMF’s director of international capital markets, said that ‘purely from a financial markets perspective, a serious conflict with Iraq would not be a very healthy development.’ … H¤usler said there could be a repeat of what happened in 1990 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, when there was a sharp rise in oil prices.” [World Bank, 9/02]

MoveOn has a petition here to tell Congress to “quickly pass a stimulus package” that helps mitigate this “Iraq recession.”

UPDATE: Martin at Scholars and Rogues has more.

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Transcript: Read more

Climate Progress

The liquid-coal military industrial complex

coal.jpg

A friend just sent me this remarkable story, “Former Air Force official joins leading coal-liquids developer,” which appears in the little-known Aim Points, “A daily summary of news, messages and communication tactics to help AF people tell the AF story.”

It looks like the “tactic” AF people are being told about is the good-ol’ revolving door:

Ron Sega, up until last year the Air Force’s chief energy executive, has joined the board of directors of coal-to-liquids (CTL) fuel developer Rentech, Inc., on Dec. 18, according to a statement issued by the company. Rentech develops synthetic fuels for the Air Force alternative fuels program, using coal and other feedstocks.

Sega resigned as Air Force under secretary in August 2007, after in part leading an effort within the Air Force to develop alternative fuels not based on petroleum and thereby reduce dependence on imported energy supplies.

“As the Air Force’s chief energy executive, Dr. Sega led the creation of a new energy strategy for the Air Force,” a strategy that addressed “demand-side energy efficiencies, supply-side energy assurance options and the establishment of a culture of conservation,” according to the Rentech statement.

The statement cites Sega as saying: “I am exited to be joining Rentech, a company that is committed to using a wide array of domestic resources to produce environmentally sound fuels that will help ensure our nation’s energy security.”

The Air Force aims to act as a catalyst for the synthetic fuels industry by using its huge buying power to guarantee demand, service officials have said. Officials say that in the near term, coal is the only feedstock that can provide sufficient energy output from synthetic fuels, and will therefore be the dominant feedstock in the so-called “synfuels” program for the time-being.

CTL fuels have drawn criticism from environmentalists, who fear that without carbon capture and sequestration during the manufacturing phase, CTL technology could release twice the amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that petroleum-based fuels do. In response to these fears, the Air Force has committed itself to buy only CTL fuels that are no worse for the environment than conventional fuels, in effect requiring carbon capture and reuse or sequestration.

Yeah, I’ll believe that when I see it. Note to Air Force: “Carbon capture and reuse” is not bloody likely, unless maybe the AF wants to get into the carbonated beverage business.

The final paragraph has one of those laughable claims that make you wish some people were hooked up to lie detectors as if life were some sort of reality show, rather than the surreality show it really is:

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