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Politics

Bullets Dodged

Whatever else happens in 2008, one thing that’s certain is that Rudy Giuliani won’t be elected president. That’s something I’m thankful for. And, based on the results, I think it’s something that virtually everyone in America can be thankful for — something that can unite Americans across the cultural divide. From Red America to Blue America, everywhere but the Commentary office and the foreign policy wing of the American Enterprise Institute, we stand proud tonight as a nation that refuses to be governed by Rudy.

Mike Huckabee’s speech, meanwhile, is strangely charming. Insofar as Huckabee seems to have no chance of winning, he’s a pretty likable guy. When one contemplates the prospect of him actually becoming president, it’s pretty horrifying. But as a folksy loser thanking his supporters — likable.

Politics

Clinton Wins!

As expected, the Florida non-primary goes to Hillary Clinton. I congratulate her on her prize of zero delegates. Good luck to HRC with her lame spin.

Politics

U.S. troop reductions in Iraq likely to slow.

AP reports that the Bush administration “is sending strong signals that U.S. troop reductions in Iraq will slow or stop altogether this summer, a move that would jeopardize hopes of relieving strain on the Army and Marine Corps and revive debate over an open-ended U.S. commitment in Iraq.” The move results from concerns by U.S. commanders that the reduction in violence “is tenuous and could be reversed.”

Politics

Florida

Narrow lead so far for McCain. County-by-county breakdown seems to favor a narrow McCain victory. This, though, tends to re-enforce what I was saying earlier — whoever wins is going to win a pretty narrow victory with less than forty percent of the vote. Hardly a decisive blow to the loser. But of course a McCain win of any sort will be spun by the press as the greatest landslide since Johnson/Goldwater.

Politics

Casey blasts Bush’s Iraq signing statement.

Today on the Senate floor, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) sharply criticized President Bush’s signing statement on the Defense Authorization Act, which waives the ban on permanent bases in Iraq:

Every time a senior Administration official is asked about permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq, they contend that it is not their intention to construct such facilities. Yet this signing statement issued by the President yesterday is the clearest signal yet that the Administration wants to hold this option in reserve. Mr. President, that is exactly the wrong signal to send, both to the Iraqi government and its neighbors in the region.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/01/caseypermbp.320.240.flv]

Transcript: Read more

Politics

Bolton: ‘The Mullahs In Tehran’ Want A Democrat To Win The Presidency In 2008

Since the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran said the country halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, former U.N. ambassador John Bolton has made every attempt to press on for bombing Iran.

Voicing his support for the major Republican presidential candidates — who have supported attacking Iran — today on Fox News, Bolton said Iran’s “mullahs” want a Democratic president elected in 2008 in order to ensure that they can continue to pursue building a nuclear weapon:

Well, I don’t think it’s discussed sufficiently. But I think in part what the mullahs in Tehran are thinking about, looking at the odds of who might win, or at least what the conventional wisdom is about the Democratic nominee winning. I think they’re going try and string this thing out in hopes that they’ll find some more pliable administration in the White House.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org./2008/01/bolton33.320.240.flv]

Responding to President Bush’s State of the Union remark that he will “confront” Iran if necessary, Bolton said Bush must either “change the regime in Tehran” or “the possible use of force against Iran” before his term expires. Bolton explained that this must be done to halt Iran’s civilian nuclear enrichment program.

Bolton’s fearmongering on Iran mirrors the conservative strategy around the 2006 elections. At the time, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Dick Cheney, and the White House all suggested al Qaeda was hoping for a Democratic Congress.

Politics

House passes 15-day eavesdropping extension.

On a voice vote, the House passed a 15-day extension of the Protect America Act today, which is due to expire on February 1. The Senate is still debating the issue and is expected to vote on an extension tomorrow. Senate Republicans “reversed their opposition to extending the existing law” today, but the White House is still threatening a veto if the Senate enacts a 30-day extension.

UPDATE: McJoan explains what’s going on.

Culture

The End of an Era

John Hollinger thinks the unthinkable:

Over the past 23 games, San Antonio has beaten all the bad teams and lost to all the good ones. In other words, it has been an average team.

This in defense of the proposition that the Spurs might actually miss the playoffs:

Even with all that, it’s still hard to imagine a San Antonio team with the likes of Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili missing out on the playoffs entirely. But throw in an ankle sprain to one of those three and put them in a conference where 48 wins might be needed to gain entry to the postseason, and it’s a different story. That’s why the Playoff Odds say there’s a 1-in-4 shot of the unthinkable happening.

A playoffs without the Spurs seems hard to imagine. Even so, this is an even numbered year so anything could happen. The real question is whether the legendary Spurs machine is breaking down in a larger sense, leaving them unable to make the numerologically determined bounceback to win the 2009 NBA Championship.

Photo by Flickr user Compujeramey used under a Creative Commons license

Politics

Giuliani Scrubs Facts To Defend His Risky Placement Of NYC’s Emergency Command Center

On CNN’s American Morning today, host John Roberts asked former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani about recent revelations by the New York Times that said as mayor he ignored a “1998 police department memo” saying that it would be a bad idea to place the New York City emergency command center at Seven World Trade Center. The memo called the location — which collapsed on 9/11 — “a poor choice” with “significant points of vulnerability.”

Giuliani defended himself, saying he made the “choice,” but adding that “there were pros and cons for all of the sites”:

Each site had a series of pros, a series of cons. And the reality is, 7 World Trade Center was also the home of the CIA, the Secret Service, it was a logical place to put it for the transfer of information.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/01/GiulianiWTC.320.240.flv]

Giuliani’s invocation of the CIA and the Secret Service is cynically misleading. In fact, as the New York Times article cited by Roberts makes clear, the 1998 police memo explicitly pointed out that the “presence” of those other agencies “made the building a more likely target“:

Mr. Giuliani has said in the past that one of the reasons for choosing the location was that several federal agencies with which city officials needed to be in contact during emergencies, including the Secret Service, had their offices there. Other federal agencies in the building included the Defense Department and the C.I.A.

But the Police Department took the opposite position in the memo, saying the presence of those agencies made the building a more likely target.

As Media Matters has pointed out, “Giuliani ‘overruled’ warnings from former police commissioner Howard Safir and NYPD chief operating officer Lou Anemone not to locate” the command center at Seven World Trade Center because he wanted it “within walking distance of City Hall.”

Yglesias

No Iraq Recession

resupply.jpg

There’s a bunch of progressive groups experimenting with some interesting “Iraq recession” messaging which sounds promising to me, but as Paul Krugman explains doesn’t fit the facts particularly well:

The fact is that war is, in general, expansionary for the economy, at least in the short run. World War II, remember, ended the Great Depression. The $10 billion or so we’re spending each month in Iraq mainly goes to US-produced goods and services, which means that the war is actually supporting demand. Yes, there would be infinitely better ways to spend the money. But at a time when a shortfall of demand is the problem, the Iraq war nonetheless acts as a sort of WPA, supporting employment directly and indirectly.

Krugman mentions the war’s impact on the price of oil as one potential caveat. I would also add that the war’s been going on long enough at this point that we’re feeling some of the long-term consequences of war-related spending along with the short-term ones. Americans are probably somewhat poorer on average than we would be had the war never been fought. But the war’s not responsible for the economic slowdown — in the short-term it’s helping to prop the economy up. Indeed, the DC area in particular (though also, I would note, Arizona — though obviously Saint John’s hawkish views reflect pure straight talky principle and owe nothing to the large number of defense contractors he represents) has seen a lot of defense-fueled growth.

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