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Politics

Senator Hothead

I’m not sure I think the fact that John McCain likes to curse at his colleagues or say things like “thanks for the question, you little jerk” when he doesn’t like a question at a town hall meeting is, as such, a problem. But it seems to me to be of a piece with potential diplomatic fiascos like his 100 years in Iraq gambit.

Part of being President is that it’s important for you to not suddenly and accidentally alter the declared policies of the United States of America just because you didn’t eat your prunes in the morning and you’re feeling a bit grumpy. The Bush administration has, for years, pursued what its critics (myself included) have characterized as an Iraq agenda focused on the desirability of securing a permanent military foothold in that country. To its credit, however, the Bush administration always recognized the sensitivity of the issue to the point where they would shy away from coming out and saying this. That there was the diplomacy, and part of being president is knowing how to do it. On the Senate floor, straight talk like “Only an asshole would put together a budget like this” (McCain to Senator Pete Domenici, 1999 or “Fuck you. I know more about this than anyone else in the room” (McCain to Senator John Cornyn during negotiations over immigration reform) is a faux pas that can be overcome with an apology after the fact. Those same instincts could, however, be a major problem if applied to the DMZ in Korea or the Taiwan Straits.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, what do we think Domenici did with the ’99 budget?

Politics

Obama NYC

It appears that the initial reported vote total for Barack Obama in New York City were substantially too low and “a swing of even a couple of hundred votes in New York might help Mr. Obama gain a few additional delegates.”

Yglesias

Spreading Democracy

“U.S. Struggles to Tutor Iraqis in Rule of Law”. Maybe that’s because the modern-day Republican Party has had trouble explaining how concepts like “if the president says ‘terrorism’ a lot it’s not really a crime” and “if the companies that broke the law contribute a lot of money to my campaign they should be let off the hook” and “when executive branch officials don’t respond to subpoenas you should back them if they’re Republicans” translate over into the Iraqi context. it is, after all, a very different culture and society so it’s hard to know what the exact parallel would be so some of the wacky adventures in Xtreme Rule of Law the GOP has been experimenting with lately.

Culture

For Love of Famous People

Hollywood is a funny business. There’s lots of money sloshing about, the big stars see huge paydays, and some movies make a tremendous amount of cash. But it always seems like an extraordinarily bad business to invest in — tons of uncertainty without the level of reward that normally comes with accepting that level of risk. And yet, there’s invariably some new wave of capital pouring in even though every previous wave has eventually walked away bitter and disappointed. The latest wave has come from hedge funds and The Los Angeles Times reports that their experience has been no better than anyone else’s.

At the end of the day what none of these hard-headed businessmen — from the heads of Japanese conglomerates to the high-flying hedge funders to whomever else — is that the attraction of the business isn’t the business, but the fact that people like movies and know that owning a piece of a production or a studio will give them a chance to hang out with movie stars. Everyone, after all, likes hanging out with movie stars. And I suppose there’s no reason very rich people shouldn’t plow their savings into an enterprise like that, but oftentimes the people making these decisions aren’t just playing with their own money, they’re also managing assets for someone else.

Security

Bush Wont Expess Opinions On Genocide Olympics: ‘I View The Olympics As A Sporting Event

During a recent interview with the BBC, President Bush boasted that the United States is the “only nation” to have called the situation in Darfur “genocide.”

Yet later in the interview, Bush was asked if he would “applaud” Steven Speilberg’s recent decision to withdraw as artistic director of the Beijing Olympics because China is not doing enough to pressure Sudan to end the genocide in Darfur. “That’s up to him,” Bush said dismissively, adding, “I’m going to the Olympics. I view the Olympics as a sporting event.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/02/busholympicssporting.320.240.flv]

Bush took a subtle jab at human rights activists who will want to “opine” during the Olympics. “I mean, you got the Dalai Lama crowd. You’ve got global warming folks. You’ve got, you know, Darfur,” he said. “I am not gonna you know, go and use the Olympics as an opportunity to express my opinions to the Chinese people in a public way.”

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Incentives Work

I’ve always thought there was something a little funny about No Child Left Behind’s efforts to use standards and accountability to get teachers and schools to perform better. Why not just go right to the source and given students direct financial incentives to do well in school? Decent people find the idea abhorrent, I know, but there are clear theoretical reasons to think it would work and the empirical evidence suggests that it works.

Now naturally every individual actually has strong incentives to do well in school anyway. But children tend to exhibit a very high rate of pure time preference. Short-term financial incentives (or, indeed, non-financial incentives like the gold stars my elementary school teachers used to hand out) help align the short- and long-run incentive picture. Meanwhile, educational attainment has positive externalities, so it’s worth spending money on.

Climate Progress

Climate News Roundup

Investors Eye Climate Role at UN - Associated Press. “Hundreds of investors controlling $20 trillion in capital were set to gather Thursday for talks on financial risks and opportunities from limiting carbon emissions that scientists blame for global warming.”

Exchanges merge to create spot market for carbon – Reuters. “Two European carbon trading exchanges are merging their platforms to offer spot trading in European Union and United Nations credits, they said on Thursday.”

Asia’s tigers eye nuclear future – Asia Times Online. An interesting regional review of nuclear power’s growth in East and Southeast Asia – the only part of the globe where the nuclear power industry really is rapidly growing to meet energy needs. This article is mostly historical (not political), but notes some difficulties with nuclear we don’t face as regularly – like safety breaches caused by earthquakes.

Politics

Generic Ballot

generic.png

The numbers don’t have any real predictive value this far in advance, but with generic congressional ballot polling tilting this sharply against the GOP you can see that Republicans really need something to change fairly drastically if they want to avoid serious problems. Whatever improvements one may think have taken place in Iraq clearly haven’t turned public opinion around. Meanwhile, I’d say the odds strongly favor the Iraq violence situation and the economic situation both looking worse in six months

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