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Yglesias

Dude, Where My Real Wages?

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Shrinking, that’s where they are, as you can see in this nifty chart I stole from The New York Times. Felix Salmon remarks:

The chart doesn’t mention the main reason for the fall: unusually high inflation. Since inflation is running at a 4% clip right now, you’d need wages to be rising at the same rate in nominal terms just to stay at zero on this chart. If food and energy prices stop rising at some point, real wages will start looking much healthier.

Of course by the same token, if prices started falling dramatically, then even a small pay cut would really be a pay raise. But what we have is the inflation uptick, and with it falling real wages for everyone who doesn’t get at least a 4 percent raise this year, a problem that we hope won’t be afflicting the all-important political blogging sector.

Politics

Taxi to the Dark Side director working on Abramoff film.

On Sunday, Alex Gibney won the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature for his work directing “Taxi to the Dark Side,” which investigated the Bush administration’s interrogation practices. Gibney’s next project — due out later this year — is a documentary on the Abramoff scandal, including Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) role. “Interestingly enough, not many politicians went on the record,” Gibney sarcastically added.

Politics

Bush: America will ‘thank God’ for Iraq in 50 years.

Speaking before the Republican Governors Association yesterday, President Bush took a moment to predict the future, claiming Americans will ultimately be thankful for his foreign policy decisions:

I believe 50 years from now, people will look back at this period of time, and say, thank God the United States of America did not lose its faith in the transformative power of liberty to bring the peace we want for our children and our grandchildren.

The notion of the public thanking the almighty for Iraq is becoming increasingly popular with Bush cronies. Karl Rove said last week, “I think that people will look back at the Iraq war and say ‘Thank God, he [Bush] had the courage to do what he did.’”

Digg It!

Climate Progress

Global Warming Solution Studies Overestimate Costs, Underestimate Benefits

weiss.jpgDan Weiss, the Director of Climate Strategy at the Center for American Progress, has written an excellent piece on why we can expect a series of inevitably flawed economic analyses of the Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act (S. 2191) in the coming months:

Many of these studies will likely predict that the reductions of greenhouse gases required by the cap-and-trade system will lead to huge hikes in electric rates, reductions in jobs, and all sorts of other economic havoc.

But these studies also have one other common element: They will eventually be proven wrong once the program is underway.

These studies base their cost assumptions on existing technologies and practices, which means that they do not account for the vast potential for innovation once binding reductions and deadlines are set. The Lieberman Warner Climate Security Act anticipates the need for innovation and creates economic incentives to spur engineers and managers to devise technologies and methods to meet the greenhouse gas reduction requirements more cheaply.

This isn’t the first time that pollution control studies have produced inaccurate predictions about the future. Remember what analysts predicted about acid rain controls from 1989 to 1990?

And the article continues on to review that history and then look at the important reports of McKinsey & Co and Nicholas Stern, which makes clear the cost of action is far, far lower than the cost of inaction.

If you’re interested in the IPCC’s take on this — they explain why the literature is clear that action is not costly — this post summarizes what they report.

Politics

Perino To Reporters: ‘From Where I Stand And The Questions I Get,’ You Are Clueless About FISA

During today’s White House press briefing, spokeswoman Dana Perino announced that the Bush administration will be holding a “background briefing” on wiretapping this afternoon. Resisting their calls to have the briefing on the record, Perino claimed that it was for reporters to “understand the complexities of the issue and where we stand.”

The briefing, however, seems intended to brainwash reporters with White House talking points, rather than clear up any so-called “confusion.” Reporters quickly said that they are “quite clear” on the White House’s positions and the facts. Perino then snidely replied, “I don’t think so.” From today’s exchange:

QUESTION: I mean, the president’s made quite clear his position on retroactive liability and so on and so forth. I mean, what specifically is the point of confusion that you might be trying to address?

PERINO: I could go back to yesterday’s transcript. … There’s confusion as to what — what are the implications and the consequences of not having the Protect America Act. [...]

QUESTION: What’s the big mystery here? Don’t we know what this is about?

PERINO: From where I stand and the questions that I get, no. I don’t think so.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/02/perinofisabackground.320.240.flv]

Perino pointed to the transcript of yesterday’s briefing as evidence of the reporters’ ignorance. The only one who appeared confused by the facts, however, was Perino.

Yesterday, Perino repeatedly claimed that because Congress refused to pass the administration’s version of the Protect America Act, U.S. intelligence collection was impaired. One reporter pointed out, “You’re still collecting intelligence.” Another charged that the government’s wiretap orders will last until at least August. Someone else stated that new targets can be pursued “as long as you come back within three days and get a warrant under FISA.”

Perino eventually gave up and responded with equivocations such as, “I’m not a lawyer” and “It’s a little bit more complex than that.” Seems like she’s the one who needs the “background briefing.”

Digg It!

Transcript: Read more

Politics

Wash. Times baselessly claims ‘military’ fears Obama.

The Washington Times ran a front page article today headlined “Military fears ‘unknown quantity,’” attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) “commander-in-chief qualifications.” The Times’s only sources for those in the “military” who fear Obama, however, include a “retired Air Force Lieutenant General who doubles as a Fox News analyst,” a unnamed “senior Pentagon official,” and a defense “industry executive“:

“We’re very concerned about his apparent lack of understanding on the threat of radical Islam to the United States,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney, who is pro-Iraq war and a Fox News analyst. “A lot of retired senior officers feel the same way.”[...]

A senior Pentagon official said an Obama swearing-in “will give the Arab street the final victory, the best optics, and the ultimate in bragging rights. They win. We lose.” [...]

“We’ve got some trepidation. There is no track record,” said an industry executive of the first-term senator. “He’s an unknown quantity and that scares us a little bit.”

TPM’s Greg Sargent asks: “Is it really possible that such gutter journalism tactics would be signed off on by such a great journalist, as Beltway types keep calling [John] Solomon?

Yglesias

The Forever War

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Kevin Drum snarks that “the surge is working so well that we have to keep it up forever.”

What this highlights is the gap in strategic vision between proponents and opponents of the war. To opponents, the deep U.S. military involvement in Iraq has become a problem. The problem needs to be solved. That doesn’t mean we need to start sprinting for the exists in a mad dash tomorrow, but it does mean that we need to be taking troops out as rapidly as can be done in a safe and responsible way. On another view, though, an indefinite military presence in Iraq isn’t a problem, it’s the goal of the policy. Under the circumstances, a policy is “working” not if it contributes to solving the problem, but just if it makes the continued presence of U.S. troops somewhat less costly.

U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Timothy Kingston

Media

New New Media

Ross and I embarked on this exciting new adventure in web video punditry mostly to try to make sure it would actually work from a technical standpoint. I’m not sure the ideas we’re expressing are really all that coherent, but the good news is that it’s short and should lay the groundwork for a bold new world of timely, reasonably brief web video punditry. But here goes:

Jenny, who does the hard work of putting The Atlantic multimedia stuff together, says “Way better than either ‘Hey Jealousy’ or ‘I Found Out About You’” thus setting a new standard for faint praise throughout the galaxy.

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