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Fox worships the ‘Kristol Ball.’

This afternoon, Fox News’ Shepard Smith paid tribute to Fox News contributor and New York Times columnist Bill Kristol. Smith claims Kristol has a “Kristol Ball” for predicting that former Massachusetts governor would drop out at the Conservative Political Action Conference and that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) would win the Ohio and Texas primaries. Smith even gave Kristol his very own Fox News caricature:

kristolball.JPG

Of course, left unmentioned is that the “Kristol Ball” is hazier when it comes to Iraq:

– “We’re not in a civil war. This is just not true.” [7/15/07]

– The U.S. can afford to “stretch our Army and Marines” for “another year or so” in Iraq. [8/24/07]

– Vouched for a “a ticket of Fred Thompson and David Petraeus” in 2008. [9/13/07]

Yglesias

Obama’s Questions

Clearly his true métier is the formal speech rather than this sort of committee work. Still, I think Obama’s line of questioning did a good job of underscoring the ultimately hollow nature of the strategy being pursued currently in Iraq. We need to stay because of these various problems, so we need to stay, and what we’re doing is working, and yet somehow there’s no path from Point A to Point B — no way to connect the dots between what’s happening now, and a situation where the problems have actually been solved.

Yglesias

Voinovich!

George Voinovich seems really pissed off! I’m not entirely sure exactly what he’s saying we should do in Iraq, but there is something nice about seeing someone — a Republican no less — expressing some frustration with the situation. Now just as I’m typing, he kind of seems to be saying he would favor setting a deadline for withdrawal, but I’m not really sure.

Yglesias

Iranian Influence

There’s a lot of good people on the Foreign Affairs committee, but Barbara Boxer is kind of a breath of fresh air. She talks like a smart, fairly knowledgeable liberal rather than like a paid-up member of the establishment looking forward to a CFR banquet in her honor. She’s driving home the point that it’s a bit perverse to be worried about the potential for Iranian influence in Iraq at a time when the President of Iran is being feted by the government of Iraq that we’re backing.

You can tell that Ryan Crocker finds her annoying, perhaps even “unserious,” but it’s good to see someone in a position of influence who’s serious enough not to take all this gobbledygook seriously.

Politics

Crocker: Al Qaeda on Afghanistan-Pakistan border bigger threat than in Iraq.

A: Yes.

During this afternoon’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) forced Ambassador Ryan Crocker to acknowledge that al Qaeda in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region poses a larger threat than al Qaeda in Iraq:

SEN. BIDEN: Mr. Ambassador, is Al Qaeda a greater threat to US interests in Iraq, or in the Afghan-Pakistan border region? … Which would you pick, Mr. Ambassador?

AMB. CROCKER: I would therefore pick Al Qaeda in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area.

Watch it:

The Wonk Room, Democracy Arsenal, and Spencer Ackerman have more.

Security

Crocker: ‘Al Qaeda On The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border’ A Bigger Threat Than In Iraq

Joe Biden managed to get Ryan Crocker on the record as to where Crocker believes Al Qaeda is the bigger threat: In Iraq, or on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where it escaped after the U.S. turned its attention to Iraq? Fortunately, Crocker gave an honest answer.

Watch it:

Conservatives often argue that the U.S. should stay in Iraq because Osama bin Laden believes it to be the central front in his war against the West, just as they do. They never seem to stop and think that maybe it’s not a good thing that they and Osama bin Laden agree on U.S. national security policy.

Spencer Ackerman has more. As does Democracy Arsenal.

Full transcript: Read more

Climate Progress

Why can’t Roger Pielke just admit he was wrong?

Pielke is just wrong. This is NOT semantics. Let’s keep this simple.

energy-intensity.pngIn his post attacking Grist, Pielke used this chart of energy intensity to argue, “the world experienced a long period of carbonization of the global economy, followed by an extended period of decarbonization beginning in the second half of the 20th century, and as our commentary argued, today the world is recarbonizing.

That is analytically wrong. Even using Pielke’s own definition of ‘decarbonization’ (which isn’t the IPCC’s or anyone else’s I know of) to make his case, Pielke would have to show a chart of carbon per GDP, not energy per GDP.

Obviously carbon per GDP can go in a completely different direction than energy per GDP. If Pielke’s analytical mistake isn’t crystal clear to anyone reading this blog, please let me know.

So my problem with him isn’t semantics. Pielke’s argument is simply wrong. His analysis is flawed.

Rather than answer this point of mine, he wrote a post accusing me of “Dissembling” and “misdirection,” of being “dishonest” and the like.

I can’t ignore Pielke, because the media and others listen to him. But, henceforth, I will endeavor to eliminate all adjectives, verbs, and nouns (and even adverbs) anyone might take offence to in future posts. I will not question his motives. I will not call him “misinformed” or accuse him of making stuff up, even when he uses such attacks against me. I won’t even call him a Delayer. All of that stuff confuses the simple issue of his being wrong. Please point out to me any lapses.

But I will continue to point out where he is wrong, because this debate is simply too important to let incorrect analysis drive policy. I will return to that point tomorrow.

Politics

Dr. Laura gets weekly segment on Fox News.

On Fox News’s Hannity and Colmes last night, host Sean Hannity announced that on his other Fox News show, Hannity’s America, controversial talk radio host Dr. Laura Schlessinger will be getting a weekly segment to offer advice and answer questions from viewers. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/04/DrLauraHannity.320.240.flv]

Recently, Dr. Laura made headlines when she blamed former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s wife, Silda, for her husband’s involvement with prostitutes. Previously, Dr. Laura has disparaged “lonely” military wives, saying that they were “bitching” and “whining”.

Yglesias

The Kagans We Need

Having earlier noted that the United States of America is suffering from a dire shortfall of Kagans, the good news is that we now have more words written by Fred Kagan that ever before, courtesy of National Review. In the course of a 5,000+ word essay he pulls of the neat trick of analogizing his opponents to Neville Chamberlain in the second graf. The general structure of the argument seems to be that, given that Chamberlain was skeptical of the merits of fighting a war over a “far-off country of which we know little” any and all refusal to fight wars in such countries is likely to lead to Adolf Hitler conquering the world.

I mean that characterization pretty seriously.

Read more

Yglesias

Arming the SOI

General Petraeus says he wants to clear up a misconception, arguing “we don’t arm any of these Sons of Iraq.” This seems to basically be true. But they’re still armed groups that we give money to — money which can be spent to buy weapons. It’s kind of a distinction without a difference. Petraeus argues that it’s money well spent that saves us cash in terms of vehicles and equipment destroyed and (of course) in terms of lives lost. That makes perfect sense to me, but reducing casualty rates isn’t a real success in any kind of strategic terms — leaving Iraq would achieve those goals easily enough.

Meanwhile, unfortunately every time I hear the phrase “sons of Iraq” I think of the “Sons of Batman” from The Dark Knight Returns. I assume, though, that it’s not a deliberate reference.

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