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Forecast: 3-in-5 chance of record low Arctic sea ice in 2008

By Joe Romm on May 1, 2008 at 4:25 pm

The Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR) predicts “a 59 percent chance the annual minimum sea ice record will be broken this fall for the third time in five years.” Pretty amazing prediction when you consider we supposedly had record refreezing of Arctic ice last fall and are only now coming out of a month-long Ice Age.

According to the researchers, “63 percent of the Arctic ice cover is younger than average, and only 2 percent is older than average“:

“Based on the current sea ice conditions, aerospace engineering Research Professor Jim Maslanik said the Northern Sea Route — the shipping lane from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean along the Russian coastline — might also open up this summer. “It also is quite possible that extensive ice-free conditions could develop at or near the North Pole,” said Maslanik.

arctic-08.jpg

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Culture

Things to do in Denver When Your Stars Are Overrated

By ThinkProgress on May 1, 2008 at 4:23 pm

A question for Bill Simmons:

Can someone tell me why the Nuggets stink so bad? Two superstars – check. Great rebounder/shot blocker – check. Solid role players – check. Fat ugly coach – check.

The obvious answer would be that, as some people have been saying for a long time, their “superstars” aren’t really that great. Instead, Simmons offers:

Come on, the Nuggets had no heart all season. None of this was a surprise. When the going gets tough, they get going. In their defense, it’s tough to get motivated to win a title when you’ve already broken the “Most tattooes on one team” record. How do you dip into the well and get fired up after that?

You would really think that the experience of the Iverson trade would have caused a few people to reconsider this stuff. Before the trade, Philadelphia was a pretty bad team and Denver was a decent one. Then Allen Iverson was swapped for Andre Miller in a move that was widely expected to help Denver and hurt Philly in the short-run. But that hasn’t been the outcome. The obvious conclusion is that the Iverson-skeptics were right all along and he’s just not that good. Denver fans should be asking themselves how good their team might have been if they’d been able to execute the reverse deal — something like Carmelo Anthony for Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert, and a draft pick.

Yglesias

No Dentist For You

By ThinkProgress on May 1, 2008 at 3:44 pm

Inability to afford basic dental services is a large problem for many poorer Americans, so naturally when an entrepreneur comes along ready to offer basic dental services at a more affordable price dentists’ trade organizations leap into the fray to get the operation shut down. It’s proprietor, after all, isn’t a dentist and just because it only takes a dental hygenist to do a basic cleaning is no reason you should be able to get a basic cleaning without paying top dollar for a dental school graduate. No reason, that is, unless you want to make dental care affordable.

The focus on America’s horrible, horrible system of financing health care tends to obscure the fact that it’s layered on top of a horrible, horrible system of delivering health care in which there are all kinds of restrictions on the supply of services that make basic care substantially more expensive than it ought to be.

Yglesias

Ending the War

By ThinkProgress on May 1, 2008 at 3:36 pm

As those who’ve read Michael Crowley’s shrewd article on Barack Obama and Iraq, it’s far from clear that an Obama administration would, in fact, act expeditiously to withdraw all American troops from Iraq. It might, but then again it might not, and I actually suspect it’s something of a Schrodinger’s Cat situation where the candidate himself knows he best not think too hard about the question lest he end up alienating someone. But barring some dramatic change in the regional situation, we really ought to move expeditiously to withdraw all American troops from Iraq. How to get it done? Nick Beaudrot recommends supporting challengers who’ve embraced the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq:

It’s important to elect as may Democrats as possible who believe that they were sent to Washington to end the war, so that there’s sufficient pressure on the Democratic President that we don’t end up with some sort of semi-withdrawal where we’re still conducting some sort of significant mission in Iraq come 2010 or 2012.

Well I certainly hope that works. On the other hand, if congressional Democrats weren’t willing to force partisan enemy George W. Bush’s hand, it’s hard to imagine any kind of Democratic congress, no matter how bolstered with fresh liberal blood, forcing the hand of a President Obama who’d get more benefit of the doubt on this stuff. Realistically, whatever levers exist will probably have to act more directly on the White House. And, no, I’m not sure what the answer is.

I will say that the legitimate strategic arguments aside, there’s a perfectly good cynical argument for leaving, namely that if you run and win an electoral mandate to say “Bush screwed this up and we should leave” and then we leave and then the situation looks like a mess, that’s on Bush as per the election results. But if you stay and kinda sorta leave but really keep a lot of folks around and say “I have a better plan for Iraq” and then the situation looks like a mess, that’s on you as per your claims to have a smart plan for Iraq. Now I certainly hope the next president will consider substance as well as politics, but inevitably he (or she) will consider politics as well as substance, so anyone who thinks leaving is strategically correct had probably best be able to muster a political argument as well.

Security

State Department: ‘The Internet Is A Virtual Safe Haven’ For Terrorism

By Matt Duss on May 1, 2008 at 3:20 pm

terror.JPGIn a briefing yesterday on the State Department’s 2007 Country Reports on Terrorism, Coordinator of the Office for Counter-terrorism Dell L. Dailey stated that “terrorists consider information operations a principle part of their effort, use the Internet for propaganda, recruiting, fundraising, and increasingly for training. It has made the Internet a virtual safe haven.”

Two other new reports confirm this trend, highlighting the great extent to which Al Qaeda has perfected its use of new media technology to attract, indoctrinate, and share tactics and technology with new recruits. In addition to offering a look into the 21st century jihad, both of these reports underscore the fact that the war in Iraq has been both a propaganda and training bonanza for Al Qaeda.

The first report, The Al Qaeda Media Nexus (pdf) published in March by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, explores the global internet media network which used to disseminate and reinforce Al Qaeda’s message. The report notes that “the ‘original’ Al Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden accounts for a mere fraction of jihadist media production,” and that the vast majority (78%) of global jihadist media is focused on the war in Iraq.

The second, The Al Qaeda Media Machine (pdf), which is published in the May-June issue of Military Review, says that “Al Qaeda has established itself as a virtual state that communicates with it’s ‘citizens’ and cultivates an even larger audience through masterful use of the media, with heavy reliance on the Internet.”

For every conventional video performance by Bin Laden that appears on Al Jazeera and other major television outlets, there are hundreds of online videos that proselytize, recruit, and train the Al Qaeda constituency.

One of the recruiting videos reportedly included a “Top 20″ IED attacks by AQI on U.S. troops in Iraq. In addition to using the internet to send propaganda to exhort potential fighters to jihad, the report also noted that “the online training curriculum has expanded to include small unit infantry tactics and intelligence operations.” Read more

Yglesias

Meanwhile, In Abkhazia

By ThinkProgress on May 1, 2008 at 3:19 pm

Rumors of war are flying around, as folks say the Georgian government is preparing an assault on Abkhazia on the assumption that “the Georgians expect the Russian troops currently in Abkhazia to stand down when the invasion begins.” This is a reminder that, at a minimum, any thought of bringing Georgia into NATO should be made contingent on some kind of stable resolution of the issues in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

You don’t make absolute security guarantees to a country in Georgia’s position unless there’s some overwhelming strategic rationale for doing so — just to be nice or make the point that we don’t approve of Vladimir Putin isn’t a good enough reason to get mixed up in these particular separatist conflicts.

Climate Progress

Unintentionally funny climate headline

By Joe Romm on May 1, 2008 at 3:19 pm

From today’s Climate Wire (subs. req’d):

Climate change may help Fla. farmers save their land

florida.jpg

No — I’m afraid that between sea level rise, storm surges, and hurricanes, climate change won’t be saving anybody’s land in Florida.

What Climate Wire meant, of course, was that action on climate change might provide income to farmers and forresters in Florida — as is clear from their source, Orlando Sentinel, which has a better headline, “Florida farmers, foresters could profit from the global-warming fight, a study finds.”

Security

Inhofe Quietly Withdraws Support From 21st Century GI Bill

By Ali Frick on May 1, 2008 at 3:13 pm

inhofe.gifOn Tuesday, around 100 veterans and a dozen congressmen gathered on Capitol Hill to rally in support of Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-VA) 21st Century G.I. Bill, which boasts the bipartisan support of 56 cosponsors.

In seeking the support of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — whom Webb said “needs to get on the bill” in order to secure more Republican support — Webb told McCain “several times that this is not a political issue.” Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) pointed to the bill’s bipartisan support: “[P]eople like John Warner and James Inhofe are on it.”

According to the Congressional record, however, Inhofe (R-OK) quietly removed his name from the list of cosponsors on Tuesday — the same day as the Capitol Hill rally:

inhofe-withdrawn.png

After months of stalling, McCain introduced his own competing bill last week, in an apparent attempt to peel off conservatives supporters from Webb’s bill. McCain suggested Webb’s staff “has not been eager to negotiate,” to which Webb retorted, “He’s so full of it. I have personally talked to John three times.”

Unlike Webb’s bill, McCain’s proposal pegs benefits to the length of time served in active duty, reserving the most generous benefits to older soldiers who signed up before 9/11. He purports to be concerned over military reenlistment, an argument fueled this week when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asserted on Tuesday that “our first objective is to strengthen the All-Volunteer Force.” He warned that “serious retention issues could arise” under a too-generous GI bill.

Of course, as the Boston Globe pointed out, the “promise of an education in return for serving the country is one of the most frequently cited reasons that young men and women join the military.” What’s more, keeping Americans in the military by denying them better options is simply morally bankrupt, as VoteVets Chairman Jon Soltz and Gen. Wesley Clark wrote recently:

[I]t is morally reprehensible to fix the system so that civilian life is unappealing to service members, in an attempt to force them to re-up. Education assistance is not a handout, it is a sacred promise that we have made for generations in return for service.

Email or call Sen. Inhofe and demand that he get back on the Webb bill: (202) 224-4721.

Update

The McCain-Graham bill, which was introduced on Tuesday, lists seven co-sponsors, including Inhofe and three other senators still listed as co-sponsors of the Webb bill: Susan Collins (R-ME), Pete Domenici (R-NM), and Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

Yglesias

HITS Event Tonight

By ThinkProgress on May 1, 2008 at 2:52 pm

Less annoying book-blogging in the future, but I do think it makes sense to remind folks that I’ll be at the Borders at 18th and L in DC tonight at 6PM for some reading, talking, and signing.

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