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The permafrost won’t be perma for long, Part 1

[This 3-parter will look at the tundra-climate connection, modeling of tundra loss from future warming, and some new research.]

tundra-melt.jpgThe tundra is probably the single most important amplifying carbon-cycle feedback. None of the IPCC’s climate models, however, include carbon emissions from a defrosting tundra as a feedback.

Yet, as NOAA reported last month (here), levels of methane (a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2) rose last year for the first time since 1998, which may be an early indication of thawing permafrost. So it seems like a good a time for a review and update of what we know.

The tundra or permafrost is soil that stays below freezing (0°C or 32°F) for at least two years. Normally, plants capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during photosynthesis and slowly release that carbon back into the atmosphere after they die. But the Arctic acts like a freezer, and the decomposition rate is very low. The tundra is a carbon locker. We open it at our own risk.

permafrost-better.jpgWe now know the Arctic contains far more carbon than previously thought (Science, subs. req’d) — nearly 1000 billion metric tons of carbon (some 3600 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide). That exceeds all the carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere. The permafrost may contain more than a third of all carbon stored in soils globally, much of it in the form of methane. Problem: Global warming is melting the top layer of permafrost, creating the possibility of large releases of soil carbon, and that is a potentially devastating vicious cycle. We are defrosting the tundra freezer-and at an unprecedented rate.

We know methane is bubbling up out of the tundra far faster than previously thought (Nature, subs. req’d). In fact, a 2006 study by Alaska researchers (GRL, subs. req’d) finds rapid degradation to key elements of the permafrost “that previously had been stable for 1000s of years.” The study, titled “Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska,” concludes that this recent degradation exceeds changes seen earlier in the 20th Century by a factor of ten to a hundred.

What’s happening in Siberia is even more alarming:

Read more

Politics

Methodist Ministers Launch PR Campaign To Stop Bush Library At SMU

bushandbushweb2.jpgEarlier this month, at the United Methodist Church’s (UMC) Quadrennial General Conference, the UMC’s governing body, voted overwhelmingly — 844 to 20 — to refer a petition to its South Central Jurisdiction. The petition urges the rejection of President Bush’s presidential library which is set to be housed at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

The library has received significant criticism from SMU faculty, Methodist ministers and the public because of an attached institute — independent of the university — that will sponsor programs designed to “promote the vision of the president” and “celebrate” Bush’s presidency.

The South Central Jurisdiction, which owns the university property where the library is set to be built, will vote on the petition this July. In anticipation of the vote, some Methodist ministers have launched a public relations campaign to highlight the partisan nature of the library:

[T]he opponents have hired a Maine public relations firm to design ads for Methodist publications and do other strategies, said the Rev. Andrew Weaver of Brooklyn, N.Y.

He said the goal is informing people about the partisan think tank, which won’t be under SMU’s control and will promote the Bush administration’s policies — such as the war with Iraq and harsh interrogation techniques of military prisoners — that some Methodists feel conflict with church teachings.

Library supporters argue that a smaller church council’s vote to authorize SMU to lease its land to the Bush Foundation last year for the library will stand, but ministers opposed to the institute “will not give up“:

But the opponents, who have raised $10,000 for the public relations campaign so far, are urging Methodists to keep fighting and send donations for the campaign to Rev. Bob Weathers, a former Fort Worth district superintendent. [...]

This is really about the partisan institute, which will do the most damage over time,” Weaver said. “And it’s not just an issue in Texas. Methodists have pride in their name.”

Indeed, opponents have cause for concern that the institute will ignore the realities of Bush’s eight years in office. Advisers to the library said the “think tank” will “rely chiefly” on a design firm, rather than historians, to showcase Bush’s policies as president.

Security

Sistani Says Resistance Against U.S. Forces Is ‘Permissible’

sistani.jpg

The AP reports that Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has been issuing religious edicts, known as fatwas, “declaring that armed resistance against U.S.-led foreign troops is permissible — a potentially significant shift by a key supporter of the Washington-backed government in Baghdad”:

A senior aide to the prime minister, al-Maliki, said he was not aware of the fatwas, but added that the “rejection of the occupation is a legal and religious principle” and that top Shiite clerics were free to make their own decisions. The aide also spoke on condition of anonymity.

It’s difficult to overstate how essential Sistani’s support has been for the task of rebuilding Iraq, or how quickly the U.S. would lose what little legitimacy it still has there if Sistani were to indicate that U.S. forces were no longer welcome. If this report is accurate, it would indicate that he is leaning in that direction.

This could also represent the final nail in the coffin of the neoconservative fantasy of establishing an enduring military presence in Iraq, from which to project U.S. power throughout the region. The article notes that the shift in Sistani’s position “underlines possible opposition to any agreement by Baghdad to allow a long-term U.S. military foothold in Iraq — part of a deal that is currently under negotiation and could be signed as early as July”:

Al-Sistani’s distaste for the U.S. presence is no secret. In his public fatwas on his Web site, he blames Washington for many of Iraq’s woes.[...]

“(Al-Sistani) rejects the American presence,” [a Sistani representative] told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment to media. “He believes they (the Americans) will at the end pay a heavy price for the damage they inflicted on Iraq.”

I think it’s possible that Sistani is responding to pressure from Sadrists who condemned him for his silence during the U.S. and Iraqi army siege of Sadr City. It’s also striking (and perhaps suspicious) how closely the language of these edicts appears to accord with what Muqtada al-Sadr himself has advocated and prohibited in terms of resistance to foreign occupiers. Contrary to some reports, Sistani did not advocate the disbanding of the Mahdi Army, but rather simply did not rule on the question, effectively leaving the Mahdi Army intact. While Sistani may regard Sadr as an unruly upstart, Sistani also recognizes that Sadr represents a massive constituency that cannot be ignored.

Cernig has more.

UPDATE: IraqSlogger reports that sources close to Sistani have strongly disputed the AP report.

Politics

Mittmentum

Ambinder sez: “McCain veepstakes team: it’s difficult to find another candidate who’s working harder for the party than Romney right now.”

Of course the problem with Romney as a VP choice is much the same as the problem with Romney as a Presidential nominee, namely that Romney’s a hugely unpopular phony loathed by most Americans. Indeed, this problem is even more acute as a VP choice since all indications are that John McCain is one of the millions of Americans who despite Mitt Romney. Now as I said many times during the GOP primary, I think all indications are that Romney, despite his professed desire to “double Gitmo,” would be a better president than McCain. But as a candidate, he would have been a terrible choice, all but ensuring a Democratic landslide. The VP pick can only do so much harm, but it would still be an idiotic choice.

Indeed, I think Romney’s VP campaign is, on some level, just a kind of kabuki. If McCain loses in the fall, which he probably will, conservatives will engage in a bout of wishful thinking and reach the conclusion that McCain was a weak candidate who lost because he’s too heterodox even though, in reality, it’s hard to imagine any non-McCain figure being even remotely competitive. That will then create some kind of opening that Romney could effectively exploit were it not for the fact that everyone hates Mitt Romney.

Yglesias

Taking the Train

Metro ridership way up in Los Angeles. Smart local governments will be seizing the day to improve frequency and quality of their transportation services — it’s obvious that high gas prices are causing people to start seeking out alternatives, and government has a duty to make them as good as possible. There’s a lot of stuff that can only be changed in the long-run, but there’s also plenty that can be changed in the short-run.

Politics

McCain rejects Hagee’s endorsement.

CNN reports that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has finally rejected the support of radical pastor John Hagee. McCain’s repudiation comes as recent attention has turned to a sermon in which Hagee said that Hitler was fulfilling God’s will:

McCAIN: Obviously, I find these remarks and others deeply offensive and indefensible and I repudiate them. I did not know of them before Reverend Hagee’s endorsement, and I feel I must reject his endorsement as well.

The audio of Hagee’s remarks was first posted by Bruce Wilson on Talk to Action and later circulated by the Huffington Post.

hageecnn.jpg

In February, McCain said he was “very honored by Pastor John Hagee’s endorsement.” After controversy broke out over offensive comments made by Hagee, McCain originally evoked Hagee’s support for Israel as his reason for continuing to embrace his support. McCain’s full statement is here.

Digg It!

UPDATE: Hagee has put out a statement saying that he withdraws his endorsement from McCain because he has “become a distraction in what should be a national debate about important issues.”

Media

MediMcCain

Michael Scherer explains how the McCain campaign plans to release medical records in a manner carefully calculated to make it as difficult as possible for accurate information about McCain’s medical history to reach the public:

The actual medical records will be viewed by only a select few news organizations, and even fewer print reporters. According to a report in the New York Times, the pool that will view the actual medical records Friday morning will include reporters from the three national wire services, the Associated Press, Reuters and Bloomberg, as well as the major television networks, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and Fox. Only two newspapers are scheduled to be allowed access, the Washington Post and the Arizona Republic. While prior McCain campaign pool events have included a spot for a newsmagazine reporter, no reporter from TIME, Newsweek or U.S. News will be allowed to view the records, the campaign confirmed Thursday morning. All print reporters traveling with the campaign will receive a pool report of the records review, which will be written by pool reporters.

On top of all that, this is going to be done on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend so that stories will run on one of the lowest-audience news days. A responsible reporter doing a story on McCain’s medical records would, of course, want to obtain the actual records and then discuss the documents with, say, independent doctors who might have actual expertise on the matter. Even really great campaign reporters obviously aren’t qualified to look briefly at some medical documents and draw any meaningful conclusions from them.

Politics

Clever Karl

If you think of Karl Rove as a basically malign person who doesn’t care at all about the well-being of the American people or the world at large, this is a pretty clever point:

If Mr. Obama believes he can change the behavior of these nations by meeting without preconditions, he owes it to the voters to explain, in specific terms, what he can say that will lead these states to abandon their hostility. He also needs to explain why unconditional, unilateral meetings with Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or North Korea’s Kim Jong Il will not deeply unsettle our allies.

Obviously, the problem here is that it would be irresponsible for Obama to spell out publicly and in advance precisely what kind of deals he’d be aiming to strike with Iran or North Korea. Nobody negotiates for anything that way. But the plan here is that when Obama correctly declines to do that, Obama can then be mocked for allegedly having “secret plans” and so forth.

As with a lot of conservative national security gambits, I could easily imagine this working except for the fact that conservative foreign policy has at the moment been revealed as a huge and unpopular catastrophe which makes it easy to (accurately) shorthand these critiques as part and parcel of John McCain’s determination to continue with Bush’s failed policies. So I don’t see it working. But qua talking point, it’s a good one.

Economy

Gingrich On Poverty: Culturally Inferior Blacks Should Learn From My Success

Our guest blogger is Joy Moses, Policy Analyst with the Poverty Prosperity program at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

gingrichhand.jpgNewt Gingrich has recently been advancing policy proposals for reducing poverty in America. Gingrich’s description of the poverty problem reveals a condescending approach to the poor, while his tried-and-failed market-based solutions do little to help Americans living below the poverty line.

First, Gingrich assumes that poor people are culturally inferior. According to Gingrich, poor people need to develop a culture of “productivity” and that when they are around people who have money, they “learn very rapidly to show up at work on time, to actually keep part of their paycheck every week, to do all the things successful people do.” In short, poor people don’t work hard enough, don’t work well enough, and don’t save. However, the reality is:

– Full time minimum wage workers live below the poverty line. The federal minimum wage is simply not a living wage.

- Poor Americans do not work less than poor people in other nations.

- Low income people are experiencing the big squeeze of working longer hours, including multiple jobs and extended overtime just to make ends meet.

- By definition, poor people have less income to save. They are less likely to have employer-sponsored retirement plans or benefit from tax breaks that primarily go to middle- and high-income people. They pay more for basic financial services.

The second faulty assumption is that poverty is a black and urban issue. Gingrich chooses to frame his ideas about poverty around Barack Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Bill Cosby, and the city of Detroit. Otherwise, he refers to Native Americans living on reservations. Although such frames are an effective tool in diverting attention from troubling issues facing the U.S. economy, serious discussions about ending poverty can not be based on stereotypes or reinforce the idea that it is someone else’s problem. The reality is:

– Although poverty disproportionately affects people of color, all races are impacted, including whites who are the largest group (45 percent) amongst the poor.

- Rural communities experience levels of poverty that are similar to urban communities—14.5% and 17% respectively. And poverty also reaches the suburbs.

Not surprisingly, one of Gingrich’s primary suggestions is to cut taxes for corporations and the rich so that they will create more jobs. Nearly eight years of such tax cuts under the Bush Administration has increased the poverty rates and demonstrated that this is not a valid policy solution. Similarly, Gingrich’s proposals to encourage kids to work at the age of 14 and to only spend two or three years in high school would probably advance the contrary goal of creating an undereducated permanent underclass, but not get us very far in ending poverty.

Politics

House Judiciary Committee subpoenas Rove.

The House Judiciary Committee issued a subpoena today to Karl Rove, to compel him to testify about the politicization of the Justice Department, including his involvement in the firing of nine U.S. attorneys last year and the prosecution of former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman. The subpoena comes after Rove’s lawyer, Robert Luskin, wrote the Committee yesterday to say Rove would not testify voluntarily, contrary to what Luskin had indicated last month.

msnbc052208143745.jpg

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