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Yglesias

Cost and Quality in Medicare

Via Brad DeLong, one of Peter Orszag’s health care slides is a scatterplot of state per patient Medicare spending and state Medicare quality:

quality%201.jpg

As you can see, we’re having some serious problems with getting good value for our money in health care spending. The standard account of this, that I have no reason to disbelieve, is that geographical areas with a high supply of health care services — especially specialist MDs — wind up recommending to patients a lot of useless or even harmful additional treatments. And this occurs at the same time as restrictions on the supply of general practitioners and on the permitted scope of activities by non-doctors (nurse-practitioners, etc.) artificially raises the cost of the sort of very basic health care that really would be useful to people.

Long story short, substantial progress on the health care costs problem will probably require the crushing of the doctor’s lobby. Reforming to the method of financing health care can shift the fiscal burden off financially struggling people in a helpful way in the short- or medium-term but absent some kind of doctor-crushing initiative to change the system of health care delivery the fiscal burden will soon enough drown whoever’s tasked with the responsibility of paying for it.

Yglesias

If You Ignore the Differences, They’re the Same

Fred Hiatt calls out a friend of mine in the WaPo‘s lead editorial, and I expect he’ll have something to say about it. But let me just note this:

In essence, Mr. Obama promises an improved version of the Bush administration’s three-year-old strategy of offering, in conjunction with European allies and Russia, economic and political favors to Iran in exchange for an end to its nuclear program and threatening it with sanctions if it refuses.

All this proves is that if you describe policy ideas at a sufficient level of abstraction, then everything is identical. But the difference here is pretty clear. Obama would like to work, in good faith, for a diplomatic agreement that would achieve America’s key security goal (verifiable Iranian disarmament) in exchange for us offering some kind of concessions to Iran. Bush and McCain, by contrast, come from a school of thought which regards it as essentially impossible to reach stable agreements with “bad guy” regimes.

Thus, their diplomatic approach to Iran amounts to repeatedly shaking their fists at Iran and demanding that they capitulate, followed by stern proclamations about how “unacceptable” a nuclear-armed Iran would be. It’s not clear if the Bush-McCain policy is going to lead to war (as a literal read of their rhetoric would suggest) or to Iran possessing nuclear weapons (if they flinch from launching a war) but what it’s not going to do is produce a diplomatic agreement to achieve verifiable nuclear disarmament in Iran. Obama, by contrast, wants to pursue good-faith negotiations aimed at achieving that goal. That’s the difference and it’s a huge difference — to brush it all away because both candidates agendas involve “Europe,” “Russia,” and “Iran” is silly, especially given that both McCain and Obama say they believe they’re disagreeing it ought to take compelling evidence before anyone concludes otherwise.

[The less said about Hiatt's concluding pitch for endless war in Iraq, the better]

Yglesias

Fog-Like Sensations

Ace reporter Spencer Ackerman tells me over IM that he’s experiencing “extreme fog” delays at Dulles Airport this morning. Yesterday at National they told us a flight was delayed because of fog. The thing of it was that you could look outside and there was clearly no fog. I attempted to vent about this to a fellow passenger, but he sheep-like took the view that if they say there’s fog there must be fog. I tried to gesture to the numerous large windows, but to no avail.

The experience put me in the mind of Michael Frayn’s “Fog-Like Sensations”.

Politics

McCain Adviser: McCain’s Tax Plan ‘Will Bring The Budget To Balance By The End Of His First Term’

holtzeakin2.jpgSen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) rhetoric on the budget has become increasingly muddled in recent months. McCain has gone from pushing a balanced budget by 2012, to a balanced budget by 2017, to a “who cares” approach. A brief timeline:

– “McCain pledges to balance the budget by 2012, not by increasing taxes, but by vetoing all pork barrel spending, and curbing outlays for Social Security and Medicare.” [Fortune, 2/19/08]

– “McCain’s overall goal is to balance the budget by the end of his second term, says [economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin]. That would be 2017.” [Robert Samuelson, 2/19/08]

– Holtz-Eakin “said that if the war and the personal and corporate tax cuts that Mr. McCain advocated added to the federal deficit and debt, so be it. ‘I would like the next president not to talk about deficit reduction,’ he said.” [NY Times, 4/14/08]

But yesterday, in an interview with Bloomberg, the McCain campaign flip-flopped yet again, claiming that McCain would put in place a balanced budget “by the end of his first term”:

Holtz-Eakin…defended McCain’s tax plans, which include extending Bush’s tax cuts, reducing the corporate tax rate and repealing the alternative-minimum tax. McCain would offset those cuts by reexamining the entire federal budget and vetoing earmarks to reduce spending. “That plan, when appropriately phased in, as it has always been intended to be, will bring the budget to balance by the end of his first term,” he said.

In reality, as the Wonk Room noted, McCain’s tax plan — which doubles the size of the Bush tax cuts, costing more than $2 trillion in their first decade — would create the largest deficit in 25 years. Even with the most generous savings McCain has offered, yearly deficits would increase to $1.2 trillion by FY2017, beginning with $505 billion in FY2009.

When ABC’s George Stephanopoulos confronted McCain with the numbers in April, McCain shied away from his first term balanced budget pledge. “But we’re not going to have a balanced budget before you leave office in your first term?” Stephanopoulos asked. “Well, that still should be a goal, but the goal — the goal right now is to get the economy going again,” McCain responded.

So which budget plan is it? 2012? 2017? Or none at all? As Holtz-Eakin said in May, “You have to pay for that somehow or you are George Bush III.”

Update

James Kvaal and Robert Gordon note that, in the same interview, Holtz-Eakin ludicrously claims that Obama — not McCain — would be a third Bush term.

Politics

Unsolicited Advice

All my liberal friends think the proverbial right-wing noise machine is going to go after Barack Obama in an even more demagogic and irresponsible manner than they went after the Clintons, and I’d have to say that the early evidence suggests they’re right. But not that conservatives care what I think, it seems to me that this is actually a substantial mistake. Crazy stuff about how Obama’s a ”marxist” a former ”street organizer”, a Muslim, and most of all blackity black black black mostly seems to me to obscure attention from a much more plausible campaign strategy. Every liberal I know is really excited about Obama because Obama’s a very charismatic, politically savvy guy who’s also got a substantially more liberal record that the successful Democratic nominees of the recent past.

Not “substantially more liberal” in the sense of “secretly worships Mao,” but in the sense of “like many people, but unlike most Americans, found Bill Clinton too moderate for his tastes.” Go read Chris Hayes’ case for Obama in The Nation and you’ll find an argument that was very convincing to me. But then again, I’m the kind of guy who reads Nation articles, I’m not the median voter. The liberal contention is that given the current state of the country, and given a charismatic candidate, the median voter is prepared to vote for a more liberal candidate than he’s been voting for over the past few decades. But that’s hardly an airtight case, and the GOP has their own well-liked nominee and one who, for good measure, is actually somewhat less conservative than the people the Republicans have been nominating recently.

They’ll probably lose one way or the other, but I think they’d be better off giving the convincing argument their best shot rather than opting for what seems like a flailing strategy of desperation.

Yglesias

Luster Lost

I’m sure Hamid Karzai has some problem, but it strikes me as intuitively a bit absurd to hold him personally responsible as being “not up to addressing Afghanistan’s many troubles.” It’s not, after all, as if Afghanistan has some long record of troubles being well-addressed and everything going smoothly until Karzai showed up. Meanwhile, neither the United States nor the Europeans have done as much as they/we should or even said we would to help out. Shifting the blame onto Karzai is just a low blow.

Climate Progress

Obama: Climate bill is “good first step” but “not perfect”

Sen. Obama thinks the bill can be improved, with tougher targets and more money back to taxpayers:

CHICAGO , IL — Today, Sen. Barack Obama released the following statement on the Climate Change Bill:

“As this week’s debate on climate change has unfolded, the American people and those watching us around the world had every reason to hope that we would act. Every credible scientist and expert believes action is necessary. This is critical and long overdue legislation that represents a good first step in addressing one of the most serious problems facing our generation.

Like many of my Senate colleagues, I believe the legislation could have been made even better. Had there been a substantive Senate debate about some of the concerns with this bill, I believe the outcome could have generated broad support. It certainly would have received my support.

Unfortunately, the Republican leadership in the Senate has chosen to block progress, rather than work in a good faith manner to address this challenge. This is a failure of our politics and a failure of leadership — a President who for years denied the problem, and a Republican nominee, John McCain, who claims leadership on the issue but opposes this bipartisan bill.

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