This morning I attended the first half of Al Qaeda 3.0, a symposium on the state of Al Qaeda today. (Video available on The Washington Note.) While opinions differed on Al Qaeda’s current strength and the appeal of its vision of global jihad, there was a solid consensus among the panelists — which reflects the consensus of other observers and analysts as I’ve been able to ascertain it — that the Iraq war has, in numerous ways, been a disaster for the war against Al Qaeda.

Much has been written about the cost in lives, limbs, and treasure of the Iraq war, and more will be. A soon to be published National Intelligence Estimate will also confirm the Iraq war’s consequences for the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan. Because of the redirection of focus and resources to Iraq, Al Qaeda’s top leadership was allowed to escape to Pakistan, from where they continue to support insurgency in Afghanistan, and continue to plan attacks on the West. Also reiterated at today’s event was the extent to which the invasion and occupation of an Arab Muslim country has served to confirm bin Laden’s propaganda, which appeals to a sense of grievance among many young Muslims.

Another consequence of the Iraq war — one which has yet to be widely reported but which I think is going to become extremely important in the next few years as its effects become more apparent– is the phenomenon of fighters leaving Iraq, bringing their ideology and experience and establishing new fronts in other countries.

One of the panelists this afternoon, Nir Rosen, wrote an article in the National last month about the rise of extremism in the Lebanese town of Majd al-Anjar, which “occupies a strategic location on the road to Syria, but it is also a crossroads for the sectarian fervour unleashed across the region by the American invasion of Iraq.”

The town has dispatched numerous suicide bombers and fighters to Iraq, where they have targeted American troops and Shiite civilians alike. The war –- and the rise of a US-backed Shiite government in Iraq — has stoked fury here that borders on racism, fired by irrational fears of a “Shiite crescent” encircling vulnerable Sunnis.

Analysts talked of the “Lebanonization” of Iraq as the country spiralled into civil war after the fall of Saddam, and now Lebanon – a weak state awash in oceans of arms – faces the spectre of Iraqification. In Majd al Anjar, angry young men are not waiting for leaders to emerge; they are prepared to take matters into their own hands.

Lebanon is one of a number of troubled Middle Eastern states that stand to be further destabilized by the Iraq war, as thousands of fighters stream back from Iraq to radicalize and train the next generation of recruits. It’s important to understand that this destabilization was not unforeseen by the neoconservatives who helped sell the war to America. Regional destabilization was proffered as a benefit of the invasion of Iraq, and many of those most responsible for getting this war off serve as top advisers to John McCain.

For years, the Bush administration has incessantly claimed that Iraq is the “central front” in the war on terror. “Iraq is the central front of al Qaeda’s global campaign,” the White House claims. But a draft of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released this week concludes that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral.”

After the new NIE draft, however, Bush administration officials are revising their stance. CBS’s Katie Couric reported yesterday that administration officials are now “privately” saying that Afghanistan is the primary national security threat to the U.S.:

A draft of the latest National Intelligence Estimate says conditions are worst now since the 2001 U.S. invasion. Bush administration officials said privately today that Afghanistan is now the single most pressing security threat in the war on terror.

The Center for American Progress and other institutions have warned for years about the growing threat in Afghanistan. On Wednesday, however, the same day as the New York Times reported the details of the NIE, Gov. Sarah Palin told Sean Hannity that Iraq is “the central front there” in the war on terror:

You don’t have to believe me, the hockey mom from Alaska, proclaiming that the war on terror, central front there, has been Iraq. Please, believe Gen. Petraeus, an American hero. Unfortunately, you gotta believe even bin Laden.

Watch it:

Similarly, McCain has long insisted that Iraq is the “central front,” saying so as late as last week’s presidential debate. “General David Petraeus believes Iraq is the central front in the war on terror,” an aide said approvingly in July. His campaign website also trumpets the same claim.

The Bush administration seems to be accepting what the intelligence community and progressives have been saying for years. Will McCain and Palin continue to have their sights set on Iraq in light of the new NIE?