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Yglesias

Stimulus

The economy is in need of some big-time stimulus. What you want to hope is that with stimulus, wages and income (“main street”) can remain strong enough for long enough that the currently underway government interventions to fix the banking system (“wall street”) can work, and then private enterprise can get back to the business of taking out loans to fund new projects. What you fear is that the problems in the banking system will cause job and income losses so severe as to undermine the banking system faster than it can be fixed, leaving us God knows where. This probably means a bigger stimulus than what Democrats are currently proposing — something along the lines of a repeat of the earlier $152 billion package has a bit of a “bailing out the boat with a leaky cup” quality to it.

Brad DeLong says “I would say $300-$400 billion, aimed at least half at infrastructure and state budgets, all to be recouped in the out-years.”

Meanwhile, Roy Blunt is on a crusade to destroy the economy:

Rep. Roy Blunt, the Missouri Republican who serves as House minority leader, said he would support a stimulus plan if it did not include massive public works spending and budget bailouts for states that overspent on health care and other social programs.

“A stimulus plan that makes sense is something that I’ll be helpful with,” Blunt said, also on ABC television.

In other words, he would support a stimulus package that doesn’t include the most valuable stimulus measures. Beware any talk of “budget bailouts for states that overspent on health care and other social programs.” What’s happening to states is that when the economy slides into recession, tax revenues fall. At the same time, the demand for Medicaid and other safety net services rises. This creates budget deficits. Deficits that states are not allowed to run. So state government responds to downturns by cutting back spending, which makes the downturns worse. This is a bad feature of American federalism, and it would be good for some clever person to devise a means of forcing states to build up large “rainy day” reserves during the happy times in order to avoid this problem.

But the time to do that is before the downturn, not amidst one. Meanwhile, the victims of Blunt’s refusal to “bail out” state governments will be not state government, but rather you, me, and the rest of the public. And what makes this especially puzzling is that a secondary victim of a refusal to pass a solid stimulus package will be incumbent Republican politicians who desperately need some sign of economic improvement by Election Day in order to hang on to their seats.

Politics

McCain Makes The Case Against Himself: Next President ‘Won’t Have The Luxury Of Studying Up On The Issues’

During a campaign rally this afternoon, John McCain made this observation:

The next President won’t have time to get used to the office. He won’t have the luxury of studying up on the issues before he acts.

“We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight, waiting for our luck to change,” McCain added. “The hour is late. Our troubles are getting worse. Our enemies watch.” Watch it:

McCain’s statement could not be a more damaging indictment of himself. As he has acknowledged repeatedly, he doesn’t know much about the economy and “still needs to be educated” on it:

– “I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.” [Wall Street Journal, 11/26/05]

– “The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should…I’ve got Greenspan’s book.” [Boston Globe, 12/18/07]

– “In the interest of full disclosure, I didn’t pay nearly the attention to those issues in the past…I was probably a ‘supply-sider’ based on the fact that I really didn’t jump into the issue.” [The New Republic, 1/31/00

Just last month, McCain proposed a plan to outsource dealing with the economy. The Washington Post reported, “Sen. John McCain on Tuesday proposed a commission to study the economic crisis along the lines of the one that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks.”

More recently, the McCain campaign has tried to “turn the page” on the economy and has stated, “If we keep talking about the economic crisis, we’re going to lose.”

Yglesias

Bjustra Hell

bjustra_1.jpg

IKEA sells a dining room table called “bjustra.” In fact, they sell two different tables by the same name, similar in style but different in size. Each table comes in two boxes — one for the table top, and one for the base. And if you so happen to get mixed up in the store and pick up box one of one bjustra and box two of the other bjustra, well, suffice it to say that “woe unto you.”

They won’t catch the mistake at the checkout line. And when you drive back to College Park to try to make the exchange, they’ll tell you that the thing to do is to go back home and dial extension 1050. Except nobody picks up at that extension! Things only go further downhill from there. Word to the wise. The whole situation is making me skeptical of the merits of a “Swedish-style” response to the banking crisis.

Yglesias

The Great Debate

Jonathan Adler tries to inject some skepticism into the emerging rightosphere narrative that Bill Ayers secretly ghostwrote Obama’s book. Adler’s not against evidence-free speculation that Obama had a secret ghostwriter, you see, but to him the evidence-free speculation that the true author is Ayers goes a bit too far. Andy McCarthy, slaps Adler down with some of the old sarcasm.

Politics

Palin says McCain will end ‘abuses of power’ in Washington.

On Saturday, one day after Gov. Sarah Palin was cited by an official state investigation for unethically and unlawfully abusing her power, Sen. John McCain said he would end “abuses [of power]” in Washington as president. In another bout of irony, Palin today echoed McCain:

See as a senator, John has confronted the corrupt ways of Washington. And the wasteful spending. And the abuses of power. As president, he’s going to end those once and for all.

Watch it:

From the Troopergate report:

For the reasons explained in section IV of this report, I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 2952.110(a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act.

Yglesias

Columbus Day

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CAP takes off federal holidays, including Columbus Day, so I’m on a weekend-style reduced blogging schedule today. Ever since coming to DC, I’ve been struck by how different Columbus Day is outside the areas of traditional Italian immigrant settlement than within. In places where good pizza is widely available, Columbus Day is a somewhat big deal with parades and celebrations and so forth. Here in DC, just a stone’s throw from the real northeast and connected to it by the Acela, we don’t have a traditional Italian-American immigrant population and thus we’ve got no real Columbus Day. This even though we (obviously) have a lot of federal employees and people who work for firms that take the federal holiday schedule, so there’s actually rather a lot of folks enjoying a day off.

Politics

McCain campaign attacks Bill Kristol: ‘He’s bought into the Obama campaign’s party line.’

Yesterday on Fox News Sunday, Bill Kristol said John McCain’s campaign has really become “a pathetic campaign.” In his New York Times op-ed this morning, Kristol went further, suggesting that McCain should “fire his campaign” and “start over.” Asked to respond to Kristol’s criticisms, McCain campaign spokeswoman Nancy Pfotenhauer said on Fox News:

Well, you know Bill is entitled to his perspective. And I used to work for Bill. And I can tell you personally sometimes he’s brilliant and sometimes he’s not. And this is one where it’s the latter category. You know, I think unfortunately he has bought into the Obama campaign’s party line.

Watch it:


Update

The Huffington Post notes that McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds also hit Kristol. “I know Bill Kristol is an intelligent guy, I just don’t think what he had to say was very intelligent,” he said.

Yglesias

Lucky Man

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Now this a journalism assignment I can believe in:

It was Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, when the faithful fast. It was the only day that Ferrán Adrià, the head chef of El Bulli in Spain, had free. Mr. Adrià was in New York to promote the book, “A Day at El Bulli,” which chronicles his world-famous “molecular gastronomy,” and I had proposed a kind of stunt in which he would visit the Lower East Side with me, shop in Chinatown and cook a meal.

And so with a friend tagging along (a gentile who had no intention of skipping the repast), I met Mr. Adrià at a Chinese seafood market at the corner of Chrystie and Grand Streets. He wore frayed black jeans and reached out to hug me upon introduction. His protégé, the chef José Andrés, was along as interpreter.

José Andrés is, on his own terms, one of the top chefs in Washington, DC. If you’re in a room with him and he’s not the most accomplished chef in the room, you’re probably in a very tasty room. Food journalism definitely seems like the line of work to be in.

Politics

Paul Krugman wins Nobel Prize in economics.

paul.jpgToday, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced that New York Times columnist and Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman has won the Nobel Prize in economics “for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity.” Krugman was the lone winner of the $1.4 million award. For at least three years, Krugman has been warning about the dangers of ballooning housing prices and the trade deficit. “One way or another, the economy will eventually eliminate both imbalances,” he wrote in August 2005. Read more at Krugman’s blog here.

Update

Yglesias writes that the award underscores “the fact that very many people who really and truly know what they’re talking about think the progressive approach to economic and social policy is the way to go.”

Security

Surprisingly, Iran Has An Opinion About U.S. Forces Being Stationed Next Door

General Ray Odierno — commander of U.S.-led forces in Iraq — told the Washington Post that Iran “is working publicly and covertly to undermine the status-of-forces agreement as officials from Iraq and the United States report nearing a deal that must be ratified by Iraq’s parliament.”

“Clearly, this is one they’re having a full court press on to try to ensure there’s never any bilateral agreement between the United States and Iraq,” Odierno said. “We know that there are many relationships with people here for many years going back to when Saddam was in charge, and I think they’re utilizing those contacts to attempt to influence the outcome of the potential vote in the council of representatives.”

Odierno said he had no definitive proof of the bribes, but added that “there are many intelligence reports” that suggest Iranians are “coming in to pay off people to vote against it.” The reports have not been made public.

No one should find it surprising that Iran would seek to influence an agreement that could potentially involve a significant U.S. force presence on its border for years to come. As to the question of “payoffs,” it’s probably unwise to comment until we have some evidence, and know what form these “payoffs” take. As Gen. Odierno indicates, however, Iran enjoys ties at all levels of leading Iraqi Shia parties, something which derives both from similar traditions of scholarly activism and, perhaps more immediately, from the fact these parties were headquartered in Tehran during the reign of Saddam Hussein.

In May, Center for American Progress analyst Brian Katulis wrote that Iran’s “important role in Iraq economically and politically is generally acknowledged, though it rarely gets the attention it deserves.” Katulis argued that “the United States, by staying in Iraq unconditionally, is facilitating the expansion of the Iranian government’s influence.”

The efforts to shape Iranian behavior through a coalition of the willing on economic sanctions are not likely to have an impact as long as it is U.S. policy to boost some of Iran’s best allies in the Middle East: the Iraqi government.

Reviewing the Pentagon’s recent “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq” report, analyst Reidar Visser criticized “the Pentagon’s take on Iranian influences in Iraq”:

The Department of Defense simply refuses to deal open-mindedly with the possibility of pro-Iranian influences inside the current Iraqi government. Instead the report brusquely asserts, “despite long-standing ties between Iraq and some members of the GoI, Tehran’s influence campaign is beginning to strain that relationship due to the rising perception that Iran poses a significant threat to Iraqi sovereignty.” Maybe it is the overuse of acronyms that prevents Pentagon analysts from detecting the problem here? Surely, when ISOF are conducting COIN with IP support to defeat the JAM and SGs and other undesirables, it all sounds so well organised that it almost comes across as unthinkable that Iranian interests could conceivably be served by these actions.

Indeed, it is unthinkable that removing Iran’s greatest enemy and facilitating the installation of a government dominated by Shia religious parties with close ties to Iran in its place could have possibly increased Iranian influenced in Iraq.

The Post story ends by reporting that Gen. Odierno “said al-Qaeda in Iraq, which does not enjoy Iranian backing, has been particularly resilient in Mosul.” I should point out that a number of John McCain’s advisers and spokespersons (including Mike Goldfarb, back when he was, as Jason Zengerle noted, merely a de facto McCain spokesman, rather than an official one) have disagreed with Odierno and Petraeus on this point, and continue to insist that Iran backs Al Qaeda in Iraq.

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