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Politics

Romney stutters and hesitates when asked if Palin is ‘ready to be President.’

During an interview on CNN today, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney touted Sarah Palin’s ability to excite the conservative base and raise money for the Republican ticket. But when asked by host Wolf Blitzer whether she is “ready to be President,” Romney hesitated and offered this stuttering response:

Well, that — that’s something which I — I believe the American people will, uh, assess individually and say, uh, yeah, she’s got the kind of executive experience that you’d hope to find from a person who’s been a governor and a mayor.

Watch it:

Yglesias

Nordlinger: Why Won’t Press Start Covering Fictitious Fraud?

name_brand_cigarettes__1.jpg

There is no evidence of any non-trivial number of people casting fraudulent ballots. Given that reality, I find it remarkable that allegations of “voter fraud” each and every year manage to get a non-trivial quantity of press coverage. But Jay Nordlinger thinks the press ignores these stories and that America will only stand up and demand a stop to fraud that isn’t happening when the media starts doing its job and covering fraud that isn’t happening:

Do you remember when the Gore people handed cartons of cigarettes to homeless people, to entice them to the polls, or register Democratic, or whatever? We righties had a lot of fun with that — because Gore was Mr. Anti-Tobacco, you’ll recall. (That’s before he went Global Warming.) But it takes more than righties having fun — it takes the big people saying, “This is a story.”

If it’s true that Al Gore’s campaign staff was giving homeless people cigarettes in order to entice them to go vote, that would indeed be funny because Gore was Mr. Anti-Tobacco. On the other hand, it would be strange for the press to give widespread coverage to these instances of election fraud given that it’s not election fraud. For the press to provide widespread coverage of people voting illegally, there would need to be instances of people voting illegally. Nordlinger, even amidst whining that the press isn’t covering fraud, can’t produce an example of fraud for people to cover. Just as when the Bush Justice Department brought inappropriate and illegal political pressure to bear on US Attorneys across the country to investigate voter fraud, they could barely come up with anything to investigate. It just doesn’t happen. Among other things, the secret ballot makes it a little impractical to bribe people to vote for your candidate.

Yglesias

The Wright Stuff

Like some kind of elaborate striptease, the McCain campaign, having already flashed its Ayers, is now hinting that they’ll show us the full Wright. I hope they get on with it already!

But I find the idea that they’ve been holding back from this out of a sense of virtue a little non-credible. Rather, they presumably haven’t been talking about Jeremiah Wright because it’s not clear what they’re going to say about it. When Hillary Clinton brought this up, her main point was that (a) this was an electoral vulnerability that the Republicans would exploit and (b) Obama didn’t have a track-record in big-time politics that showed he could handle the attacks. Neither of those, however, can actually be the point of a McCain attack. With, say, Willie Horton, the point was that Dukakis was soft on crime. With Wright the point is . . . what? Maybe I just lack imagination. But McCain is paddling up river at this point, with everything we know about American politics suggesting that the deterioration of the economic situation makes it hard for him to win. At a minimum I would think that any spectacular campaign gambit would have to somehow connect to some point about the economic situation.

Politics

Perino Denies Recession: Only A Few Regions Of The Country ‘Are Hurting Right Now’

Yesterday on CNN’s late edition, Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers Edward Lazear told host Wolf Blitzer, “We are seeing what I think anyone would characterize as a recession in certain parts of the country.” Watch it:

Today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke echoed Lazear’s sentiments, saying that the nation is facing “a serious slowdown in the economy with serious consequences for the public,” but stopped short of labeling the downturn a recession.

But during a press briefing on Air Force One today, White House Press Secretary Dana Perino dismissed Lazear’s and Bernanke’s concerns. She argued instead that there are always “some regions” of the nation that are “hurting”:

PERINO: I think what [Lazear] was saying is that there are parts of our country that are hurting right now. … Economic cycles always have — someone is on the up and someone is on the down, even when you have a country that experienced, as we did, 52 consecutive months of job growth, you end up with some regions of the country not doing as well as others.

Earlier this month, Perino claimed, “I don’t think anybody could tell you right now if we’re in a recession or not.” But former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said last week, “[T]he economy, I believe, is in recession” and Steve Forbes said similarly that “we’re in a recession, a very serious recession.” Furthermore, a recent poll by the Wall Street Journal found that a majority of American economists believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.

Explaining how to stave off further decline, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote bluntly last week, “[W]e need major stimulus programs.” Bernanke said today that planning for such stimulus is “appropriate,” while Perino said only that the president is “open” to the idea.

Yglesias

Tax Code in a VAT

Bring up the fact that trying to fund the federal government through a retail sales tax is a bad idea, and soon enough folks will pop up arguing that a VAT (value added tax) works in Europe and is arguably a good idea. And, indeed, that’s true. But they’re not the same thing. A VAT is what you come up with if you want to accomplish the goals of raising large sums of revenue through a consumption tax and you also know what you’re talking about.

My opinion on the merits of a VAT is as follows. A VAT is regressive, which I don’t like. But in many countries they raise a ton of money from a mildly regressive VAT and then spend the money on programs that are strongly progressive. This, to me, is fine — progressive taxes shouldn’t be a sacred cow, the point is to have an overall progressive system of economic interventions. So if you’re talking about a VAT to replace income tax revenue, I’m not so excited. But raising new money through a VAT and spending it on progressive programming seems like a fine idea to me if that turns out to be easier to accomplish politically than the alternatives.

Security

SOFA Maneuvers

october18demo.jpgThe Washington Post reports that the U.S.- Iraqi status of forces agreement has run into serious opposition from members of Iraq’s powerful Shiite religious bloc:

The change sought by the influential United Iraqi Alliance would harden the withdrawal date for U.S. troops. A draft bilateral agreement completed this week would require American forces to leave by December 2011 but would allow for an extension by mutual agreement.

The Shiite bloc, which includes Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa party, also insists that Iraqi officials have a bigger role in determining whether U.S. soldiers accused of wrongdoing are subject to prosecution in Iraqi courts, said Sami al-Askeri, a political adviser to Maliki. That proposal has been resisted by the Pentagon.

On Saturday, tens of thousands — Sunnis and Shiites — turning out to demonstrate against the SOFA in Baghdad.

Last week, General Ray Odierno, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, said in an interview “that American intelligence reports suggest Iran has attempted to bribe Iraqi lawmakers in an effort to derail” the SOFA. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki responded harshly, saying in remarks were aired on state television that Odierno “had risked his position” with the accusations. (It’s unclear whether, or how many of, the tens of thousands of Iraqis protesting against the agreement last weekend were bribed by Iran to show up.)

Last week the AP ran this story on the growing divisions between Maliki and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which has been an important ally for Maliki’s as he has sought to establish his independence from the Sadrists, whose support allowed him to become prime minister in 2006. Relations between ISCI and Maliki’s Da’wa Party “began to sour after al-Maliki grew stronger and more assertive following a series of political and military successes” this Spring:

Ties further strained after al-Maliki sought to compete with the Supreme Council for influence in southern Iraq, luring tribesmen with cash and jobs to form “Support Councils” — government-backed groups designed to extend support to security forces in their provinces. [...]

Al-Maliki may soon announce an alliance between his party and the estimated 30 independent Shiite lawmakers to contest next year’s balloting.

Signs also are emerging that al-Maliki has been slowly mending fences with the 30-seat bloc in parliament that is loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr as well as the 44-seat Sunni Arab alliance.

However one interprets the political maneuvering taking place, the fact remains that support among Iraqis for a “date certain” for U.S. withdrawal is the most significant issue around which there is genuine Iraqi consensus. It’s essential that the U.S. recognize and honor that consensus in order to enable progress around the other tough issues that currently divide Iraqis, as it continues to be clear that no genuine Iraqi political unity can develop while the Iraqi government continues to be underwritten by an open-ended foreign military presence.

As recommended in the CAP report “Iraq’s Political Transition After the Surge,” rather than bargaining with Iraq to let us stay, it would be better — for the United States and for Iraq — if we used the diminishing but still significant leverage that we currently have over various Iraqi actors to encourage them to make the tough compromises that are required for a sustainable political accommodation.

Politics

Will conservatives criticize Chambliss’ fair tax proposal?

Last week, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) reiterated his support for the fair tax, which he claimed lets consumers determine their tax rate based on their consumption levels. “The fair tax is what is says it is — it’s fair,” Chambliss said. But as Matt Yglesias notes, when former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee proposed a fair tax during the GOP primary, conservatives lashed out:

David Frum: “Economists and tax experts virtually unanimously agree that the plan is beyond unworkable — that it is downright absurd.”

Ross Douthat: “Huckabee’s Fair Tax zeal and Paul’s anti-Fed enthusiasm are genuinely foolish.”

Rich Lowry: No, the former Arkansas governor has the distinction of advocating the most radical — and politically unsalable and substantively daft — proposal of any major presidential candidate of either party. … [T]he FairTax is a bedtime story for IRS-hating conservatives.

John Podhoretz: The Fair tax is a “wild notion.”

“I look forward to the aforementioned conservative thought-leaders weighing in on Chambliss’ endorsement of fantasyland policymaking,” Yglesias writes.

Climate Progress

Question from WSJ blog: Are Bogus Carbon Offsets Really That Bad?

Balloons_art_200v_20081020100753.jpgAnswer: Yes.

While the news division of the WSJ is trashing bogus offsets, the blog division is challenging my term for them (see “Selling Hot Air“):

Joe Romm at Climate Progress calls them “rip-offsets,” and bemoans the fact that people get paid extra for business as usual activities and that companies buying the offsets are wrapping themselves in a non-existent green cloak.

But are offsets really so bad? One of Mr. Romm’s readers says not to let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Some individual projects, like the New Jersey landfill profiled in the WSJ, might not provide “additional” emissions reductions. But if the carbon-offsets lucre encourages smaller, unregulated players to change their behavior, it’s not such a bad thing overall:

If the offset market for capturing landfill methane causes a lot of methane capture that would have not otherwise been captured, it is NOT a case of “lack of additionality.”

This isn’t a wonkish point. For climate-change legislation to pass Congress in the midst of an economic crisis, everybody from environmentalists to big business has to be on board, and businesses say they need access to cheap emissions reductions provided by the offset market.

It just goes to show you that a good comment on this blog can get you into the Wall Street Journal — congrats to Larry Coleman.

I definitely think the perfect should not be the enemy of the good. But the phony should be the enemy of the genuine [Note to self: With that attitude, you're never going to get a job in Hollywood or in a GOP political consulting firm].

The problem with the WSJ/Coleman critique is that, as my lawyer friends might say, it assumes facts that are not in evidence. If the Chicago Climate Exchange or anybody else can find a landfill that was not capturing its methane but that needs the money from the offset market to make methane capture profitable, I say go for it. But where is the evidence that fraudulently charging Americans for projects that are supposed to be offsetting their emissions but in fact aren’t offsetting anything has caused methane capture that would not otherwise have occurred?

This isn’t a wonkish point. If climate legislation requires rip-offsets to be passed, and if the entire point of climate legislation is to reduce emissions and avert catastrophic climate outcomes, then offsets that are not real are merely enabling a system whereby coal companies can keep burning coal and then pay people to do stuff they were already doing. The net result — emissions keep rising.

I don’t keep repeating every single criticism of rip-offsets in every post — that is what hyperlinks are for. But let me repeat the central point from the major Stanford study this year done on the specific question of what happens if you allow rip-offsets to be used as a major cost-containment strategy in climate legislation (from my post “Q: What is the difference between carbon offsets and mortgage-backed securites?“)

Read more

Yglesias

More Fraud

From a reader via IM:

Hey, speaking of voter fraud, i keep getting mailings and phone calls from the Wisconsin GOP telling me that i need to register to vote and then vote. Even though I have not lived in Wisconsin since I graduated high school there in 1997. I have never had a residence there since then. But, according to the Wisconsin GOP, that didn’t matter. Of course, I implied to them I was thinking about voting McCain. Yet, if ACORN told me the same thing……….

I asked them on the phone call if I could register to vote there even though I have not lived in the state since 1997, and they said “no problem.” After telling them I was a likely mccain voter, which of course, I am not.

Now of course part of this story is that if we had a National Popular Vote it wouldn’t matter so much exactly where people vote.

Yglesias

More Voter Fraud

Chris Hayes commits some.

In a reasonable country, what we would have is an affirmative right of adult citizens to vote. Then “fraud” would consist of voting multiple times, or voting someplace where you’re clearly ineligible to vote. Currently, there is no affirmative right to vote. Consequently, any violation of any number of picayune technical elements of process counts, in some sense, as fraud. Filling out a registration form wrong by accident is, arguably, fraud. Or if you’re a college student and your freshman dorm is in a different precinct from your sophomore dorm, but you forgot to get your registration information updated before the deadline so you go vote in the precinct where you’re registered that’s arguably fraud. So all this stuff happens, and there’s a lot of fraud. Or, rather, “fraud.” It’s clerical errors, really, but conservatives are trying to make it out to be some vast election-stealing conspiracy.

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