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Yglesias

The Precriminations

Like a lot of progressives, I’ve been enjoying the recent leaks out of conservoworld with different factions pointing fingers and accusing each other. These are some decent precriminations, and if things go the way the polls indicate, they’ll lead to some fantastic recriminations in November and December.

It’s worth saying, though, that there isn’t really much cause for it. The fact of the matter is that the unpopularity of George W. Bush and the Republican Party made for an unpromising situation, then along came an opponent who’d raised a ton of money and as summer turned to fall the economy started skidding downward. Under the circumstances, it’s just intrinsically difficult for a conservative candidate to win. McCain and his team have engaged in a lot of embarrassing flailing around over the past few months, and they’d do themselves a favor to avoid a lot of embarrassing post-election flailing. Doubt it’ll happen, though.

Politics

San Francisco 49ers interested in Condoleezza Rice.

rice.jpgNFL Network’s Adam Schefter reported on NFL GameDay that the San Francisco 49ers want to talk to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice about a high-level position within the organization — perhaps president. Schefter said “a lot of people feel she could be very instrumental in procuring a new stadium” for the 49ers. Rice has not been coy about expressing her deep interest in working in the National Football League. She has said she wants to be NFL Commissioner, but she added, “I’ve decided that it would be all right to run a team, as well.” When former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue stepped down in 2006, Rice passed on the position, explaining, “Unfortunately, it came open at the wrong time.”

Update

When asked about the report on Sunday, the 49ers spokesman simply responded, “We don’t respond to rumors.”

Climate Progress

Study: Water-vapor feedback is “strong and positive,” so we face “warming of several degrees Celsius”

A new study in Geophysical Research Letters (subs. req’d), “Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003–2008” analyzed recent variations in surface temperature and “the response of tropospheric water vapor to these variations.” They concluded that the “water-vapor feedback implied by these observations is strongly positive” and “similar to that simulated by climate models.” The analysis concludes:

The existence of a strong and positive water-vapor feedback means that projected business-as-usual greenhouse-gas emissions over the next century are virtually guaranteed to produce warming of several degrees Celsius. The only way that will not happen is if a strong, negative, and currently unknown feedback is discovered somewhere in our climate system.

A “warming of several degrees Celsius” = the end of life as we know it (see “Is 450 ppm politically possible? Part 0: The alternative is humanity’s self-destruction“).

While some denyers/delayers/inactivists, like MIT’s Richard Lindzen, have argued that negative feedbacks dominate the climate — all of the evidence points to amplifying feedbacks dominating (except the one negative feedback that the deniers fiercely fight, discussed below).

That was a key point of my post “Are Scientists Underestimating Climate Change, Part 1“: In the real world, key climate change impacts — sea ice loss, ice sheet melting, desertification, and sea level rise — all are either near the top or actually in excess of their values as predicted by the IPCC’s climate models. For a more recent detailed discussion of accelerating climate impacts and what that portends for the future on our current emissions path, see the new WWF report Climate Change: faster, stronger, sooner.”

The major climate models are missing key amplifying feedbacks, some of which were discussed in “Are Scientists Underestimating Climate Change, Part II.” These feedbacks include:

Read more

Yglesias

Learning to Love the Big Box

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As far as this issue goes, I think urbanists ought to wholeheartedly embrace “big box” chain stores. When there’s a problem with an urban-situated big box store, which there often is, it’s because (like the Home Depot near the Rhode Island Avenue Metro station) the site has been laid out in a way that’s inappropriate for an urban environment. But such inappropriate structures are hardly unique to big box retailers (the CVS at 7th and Florida has a strongly suburbanist design quality) or to national chains. What’s more, these problems are often caused by misguided regulations (which of course should be fixed, but are not the fault of the big box chains) or else relate to a general lack of experience financing and constructing stores in an urban environment.

But you can make a physical structure, like DC USA in Columbia Heights, that works in an urban environment. And it would work even better if it didn’t have so much shopping.

But the bottom line is that successful chains are successful because they’re good at bringing to market products that people want to buy at the offered price. If you want people to live and shop in cities, you need to open the cities to the firms that are good at bringing to market products that people want to buy at the offered price. It’s probably in the nature of things that big box stores can never be as successful in a big, crowded city as they are in the suburbs and that will be especially true if you insist that they house themselves in urban-appropriate structures. At the same time, the density of well-designed urban neighborhoods naturally supports a much larger array of niche retailers, where the economics point to independent ownership. Both of those things are all to the good.

But trying to keep large retailers out, as such, is a silly goal. It’s just not the case that the alternative to major chains being in the city is for people to do all their shopping at high-cost, low-selection local independent retailers. Instead, people drive to the suburbs. Better to bring some of that commerce into the city, where people can get to it on transit or on foot as well as by car, and where it becomes part of the urban economy.

Economy

Contrary To McCain’s Assertions, Tax Cuts Do Not Spur Business Growth

Recently, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been criticizing Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) for his plan to let the Bush tax cuts expire on the top two federal income brackets. McCain claims that this will hurt small businesses, and cause them to cut jobs:

[H]is tax increase would impact 50 percent of small business income in this country, and the jobs of 16 million middle class Americans who work for those small businesses. My opponent’s massive new tax increase is exactly the wrong approach in an economic slowdown.

McCain’s economic plan centers on making the Bush tax cuts permanent and cutting corporate taxes. However, as Princeton professor Uwe E. Reinhardt points out in the New York Times, business investment actually rose following President Clinton’s tax increases and fell following the Reagan and Bush tax cuts.

private-investment-as-percent-of-gdp.jpg

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, “only 1.9 percent of filers with any small-business income are projected to face either of the top two income tax rates in 2009,” and thus the effects of Obama’s tax increases on small businesses would be almost negligible. Furthermore, as Reinhardt pointed out, even rich business owners won’t expand their businesses if no one has money to spend:

Specifically, I would challenge supply-siders to explain why the owners of small businesses — say, restaurants — would expand the capacity of their establishments or build new restaurants at a time when customers stay home, even if they were given a tax cut on the income from their restaurants.

Echoing a slew of prominent economists – including Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman – Reinhardt advocates domestic stimulus “to rebuild the nation’s tattered infrastructure.” Indeed, this is the path that should be taken, instead of cutting taxes for the rich and America’s corporations.

Digg It!

Politics

Why hasn’t Condoleezza Rice endorsed John McCain?

After Colin Powell endorsed Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) last week, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been touting the five former secretaries of state who have endorsed him. McCain tried to use that argument today on Meet the Press, but at first he could name only four of the five (who represent Nixon, Reagan, and George H.W. Bush administrations), momentarily forgetting George Shultz. Watch it:

So why isn’t Condoleezza Rice, the current Secretary of State, on that list? Rice has said she’s “not going to get involved in this political campaign.” But perhaps her hesitation has something to do with Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). When asked in September whether Palin had enough experience for the job of vice president, Rice deliberately avoided the question, saying only, “These are decisions that Senator McCain has made. I have great confidence in him.”

Yglesias

Worst Answer Ever

I don’t have video yet, but suffice it to say that John McCain’s answer to Tom Brokaw’s question about whether Colin Powell’s endorsement was all about race was . . . unimpressive. McCain couldn’t even remember which former Secretaries of State support him and didn’t even attempt to answer the question.

UPDATE: Here’s the video:

That’s courtesy of Ali Frick who also reminds us that McCain hasn’t snagged the Condoleezza Rice endorsement.

Politics

Rove And Kristol Fault Disloyal, Ill-Serving Campaign Staff For McCain’s Struggles

Today, the New York Times Magazine features a long article about the infighting and finger-pointing within the McCain campaign. Yesterday, reports surfaced that Gov. Sarah Palin is a “diva” who “takes no advice from anyone” and might be going “rogue.” Meanwhile, more and more conservatives are trying to separate themselves from Sen. John McCain with as much speed as they distance themselves from President Bush.

Today on Fox News Sunday, “master strategist” Karl Rove joined the finger-pointing, blaming the McCain staff for being “undisciplined” and expressing insufficient “loyalty” for McCain:

ROVE: We saw it in the Clinton campaign, and now we’re seeing it in the McCain campaign, where before the election is totaled up, before the votes are all cast, before the decision is made, people start pointing fingers and blaming each other. It is a sign of undisciplined people who do not have the loyalty that they ought to have to the candidate whom they’re serving. And it’s — it’s a sad sight to see. Nobody makes themselves look good by this process.

Later in the show, right-wing columnist Bill Kristol blamed McCain staffers for “ill-serving” Palin by mishandling the story about spending $150,000 on new designer clothes for her. “The staff has not served her well by hiding her and not having confidence,” he said. Watch both clips here:

It makes sense that Kristol is trying to direct blame onto staffers and away from Palin: after all, McCain insiders have credited Kristol with convincing them to go with Palin to begin with. The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer said Kristol was “the most ardent promoter” of Palin, repeatedly talking up her electoral prowess on Fox News and urging McCain to choose her for vice president.

Some recent polls have shown her selection to be a bigger drag on McCain’s campaign than Bush.

Yglesias

McCain: Electing the Candidates You Prefer Will Put Them In Charge of the Country

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John McCain tries out a new campaign theme:

Republican presidential nominee John McCain on Saturday raised the prospect of a complete Democratic takeover of Washington as a reason to elect him over Democrat Barack Obama in 10 days. [...] McCain said having Democrats in control of the White House, the U.S. House of Representatives under Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and the Senate under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, would give Democrats unfettered power. [...] “But that is exactly what’s going to happen if the Democrats have total control of Washington. We can’t let that happen. Are you ready for Obama, Pelosi and Reid?” the Arizona senator said.

I’m going to agree with Chris Bowers that there’s something paradoxical about this. Presumably, the reason Democrats are forecast to make gains in the House and the Senate and Obama is leading in the polls is that, yes, most voters want Democrats to take over. This sounds more like a fundraising pitch than a general election argument. Voters prefer a Democratic congress and they seem to prefer Obama as well. To the 41 percent of people who have an unfavorable view of Pelosi, this is maybe a persuasive argument, but to the 59 percent who either like her or are indifferent it’s hard to see this moving the dial. Meanwhile, I doubt anyone even knows who Harry Reid is.

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