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Ware On SOFA Negotiations: ‘Tehran Was In The Room’

On Saturday, in what has become one of the rituals of Iraqi politics, a delegation of Shiite lawmakers and government officials met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to review the latest changes to the status of forces agreement. According to “an official in Sistani’s office who spoke on the condition of anonymity,” Sistani “gave the Iraqi side the green light to sign it.”

On Sunday, Iraq’s cabinet “overwhelmingly approved a proposed security agreement that calls for a full withdrawal of American forces from the country by the end of 2011.” The agreement now moves to the full parliament, where it is expected to be voted on by next week.

Earlier today, I sat down with CNN’s Michael Ware, who has been reporting from Iraq for the last six years, to discuss the cabinet’s approval of the status of forces agreement. Specifically, I asked Michael to respond to the idea that the cabinet’s approval represents a “defeat” for Iran, as former Coalition Provisional Authority adviser Dan Senor argued this morning on Fox News.

Watch it:

WARE: I would argue that it could potentially be a victory for Iran. In some ways you can argue that these [the SOFA negotiations] have been a form of indirect peace talks with Iran to end that part of the conflict.[...]

Iran has a whip hand, or a key hand at least, within the political framework there. So during these negotiations between Baghdad and Washington, Tehran — whether we like it or not — was in the room. Tehran, in some ways, in some fashion, is a party to this agreement. And you’ll see that some of the sticking points and some of the nuances within the negotiations were issues that were very close to the heart of Tehran….Iran is in a position where it didn’t get everything that it wanted, but then neither did Washington — and indeed neither did Baghdad — but Iran still will feel that it has something of a comfort zone as a result of this in the form that it should hopefully pass the Iraqi parliament.

Meanwhile, NRO’s James Robbins thinks it’s funny that Muqtada al-Sadr has been “making firey demands that the US agree to conditions for the status of forces agreement that both sides had pretty much agreed on anyway.” I think it’s more funny that Sadr has been making these demands for years, that Maliki managed to steal some of Sadr’s nationalist thunder by adopting those demands and then getting the Bush administration to agree to them, and that Robbins thinks this represents a victory for the Bush administration.

Politics

Schwarzenegger acknowledges global boiling: California now has ‘fire season all year round.’

Brad Johnson notes at the Wonk Room that in his interview yesterday with with ABC, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) talked of the impact of global warming on California’s wildfires. Climate change, he said, has created a constant threat of wildfires in California:

Through global warming, we have now fire season all year round. We used to have fire seasons only in the fall, but now the fire seasons start in February already, so this means that we have to really upgrade, have more resources, more fire engines, more manpower and all of this, which does cost extra money.

Watch it:

In addition to Schwarzenegger, former Bush EPA administrator Christine Todd Whitman and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) have also acknowledged “global boiling.”

Culture

Quantum of Liberalism

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Juan Cole on Quantum of Solace:

Forster presents us with a new phenomenon in the James Bond films, a Bond at odds with the United States, who risks his career to save Evo Morales’s leftist regime in Bolivia from being overthrown by a General Medrano, who is helped by the CIA and a private mercenary organization called Quantum. In short, this Bond is more Michael Moore than Roger Moore.

This did seem like a noteworthy development to me when I watched the film yesterday. Admittedly, a few scenes imply that backing General Medrano would be the right thing to do if his coup really would lead to an oil bonanza for the US rather than being part of a complicated double-cross. But generally speaking, Cole’s read this right. And in a sense Bond’s evolution reflects broader trends within the intelligence world. During Cold War times, there was a general solidarity within the services with the center-right Cold Warrior ideology, and enormous skepticism of the post-Vietnam left’s skepticism about the endeavor. But as we’ve moved into the 21st century, the calculus has increasingly changed, and intelligence professionals and liberals have increasingly found ourselves on the same side of fights allied against the neo-imperial hubris of the right-wing.

That said, the title of this movie is really nonsensical and the idea that the Quantum conspirators would all wear “Q” lapel pins is insane.

Yglesias

The Argument From Volt

With due respect to Tom Laskewy, the notion that we need to bailout the big three for the sake of the Chevy Volt doesn’t really make sense to me. If the Volt project is genuinely promising, then liquidating General Motors wouldn’t lead to the Volt disappearing into the ether, it would result in the Volt project being sold to a non-bankrupt automaker. Arguably the Volt project would be helped by ending its association with the large, dysfunctional firm that is General Motors and instead becoming part of a more viable enterprise.

But more to the point, the whole “green” case for the bailout seems a bit grounded in fantasy. I don’t see either the executives or the legislators pushing this initiative getting religion on global warming where it counts — in the congress. We don’t need to use a divining rod to try to discern Detroit’s views, we can look at the Dingell-Waxman fight for control of the Energy & Commerce committee and we can compare the Dingell-Boucher climate bill to other alternatives.

Politics

Palin Is First Confirmed Guest Speaker At CPAC 2009

In an apparent attempt to maintain her national profile following her defeat on November 4, Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) scheduled a marathon of high-profile interviews with local and national media. Her media blitz concluded with an awkward press conference and a speech to the the Republican Governors Association last week.

Now, it appears that Palin’s post-election comeback tour will extend into next year. ThinkProgress spoke with Joseph Logue of the American Conservative Union who said that Palin is the first confirmed speaker for the 2009 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC):

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Palin was scheduled to speak at CPAC 2008, but she canceled at the last moment. Other conservatives who have reportedly been invited to speak include Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA), former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).

Her former running-mate, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was booed at last year’s event and was left off the initial invite list for CPAC 2009 entirely.

Yglesias

Pansy Division

Newt Gingrich warns that “gay and secular fascism” is a “very serious threat”:

I can’t believe this joke is making a political comeback. But I suppose if Liberal Fascism can be a best-seller, more and more conservatives are going to hop on the “let’s call everyone fascists” bandwagon.

Yglesias

No Restaurant for You

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Even if people don’t agree with my specific policy prescriptions, I hope that one lesson people will take from my land use and planning blogging is simply that everyone ought to pay more attention to the regulatory framework prevailing in their area. People often express likes and dislikes for certain cities and neighborhoods as if they just happened to arrive by magic. In fact, the character of neighborhoods is powerfully shaped by regulation. For example, I spent the bulk of my DC years living in a neighborhood where almost all the commerce was subject to what’s called the ARTS overlay zone which contains, among other things, an odd anti-restaurant provision:

Yesterday, I mentioned the ARTS overlay’s restriction on restaurants. Only 25% of the street frontage, measured in linear feet, can be restaurants. The district (which includes commercial districts of U Street, 14th, P, and 7th near Florida) is already about 24% restaurants.

Whether you like this rule or not, it’s exerting a considerable influence on the neighborhood since we’re butting up against the limits. For one thing, it’s impeding the opening of new restaurants. For another thing, it’s probably doing something at the margin the encourage non-restaurant businesses to open. And it’s encouraging vacant retail spaces to stay vacant for longer. And it means that portions of this neighborhood that currently have few restaurants will stay that way even if demand for restaurants is high, since there are already so many restaurants in the restaurant-heavy portion of the ARTS overlay around the intersection of 14th and U. Last, it’s a huge boon to incumbent restaurant owners. A desperately mediocre, not-especially-cheap place like the Sala Thai on 13th and U can stay in business in virtue of the fact that, due to its mediocrity, you always walk in and get a table there and they don’t need to worry about too many newcomers opening up and competing with them.

As with almost all efforts to micromanage development in this way, I’m extremely dubious of the merits of this sort of thing. I think that if you let as many restaurants as want to open just go open, that might actually increase the volume of non-restaurant businesses simply because there would be fewer vacants and more street traffic. But if that’s wrong, if lifting the restaurant cap just led to more and more restaurants and no non-restaurant retail, I’d think we should take that as a signal that the neighborhood doesn’t include an adequate number of retail possibilities and that more areas within the jurisdiction should be opened to retail activities. In general, a smart city or neighborhood will welcome as much economic activity as possible. You might want to eschew unsafe or heavily polluting industries, but we’re talking about restaurants here. Allowing plentiful restaurants to open will give people more dining options and, ultimately, better dining options. Stifling competition through these kind of restrictions, by contrast, does a lot to help whoever happens to own a restaurant (and, more important, permission to run one) and little to boost retail diversity.

But even if you disagree with me about the merits here, I’d like everyone to appreciate the point that the vast majority of people living in the neighborhood have no idea that this rule exists or what its implications are. And you in your neighorhood probably have no idea what zoning rules are in place in your local commercial district. But you should find out — people should take ownership of their communities and of the policies that shape them.

Media

Frum Leaving National Review

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It seems that David Frum, one of National Review‘s very best writers, is going to be leaving the magazine and he suggests that NR‘s burgeoning penchant for cocooning and purges is part of the issue:

In October came the resignation of Mr. Buckley’s son, the writer and satirist Christopher Buckley, after he endorsed Barack Obama for president. He did so on Tina Brown’s blog, The Daily Beast, to avoid any backlash on The Corner.

Now David Frum, a prominent conservative writer who enmeshed himself in a minor dustup during the campaign by turning negative on Governor Palin, is leaving, too. In an interview, he said he planned to leave the magazine, where he writes a popular blog, to strike out on his own on the Web.

“The answers to the Republican dilemma are not obvious and we need a vibrant discussion,” he said. “I think a little more distance can help everybody do a better job of keeping their temper.”

An interesting development. An End to Evil is a preposterous book, but Frum’s Comeback and Dead Right are both very interesting and, frankly, more worthy of your time than a lot of political books written by people I have more substantive agreements with.

Politics

Perle still holding out for ‘George W. Bush Square’ in Baghdad.

perleweb.jpgIn September 2003, Iraq war architect Richard Perle famously stated that the Iraqis “have been liberated” and that “a year from now, I’ll be very surprised if there is not some grand square in Baghdad that is named after President Bush.” When Perle was asked about that comment in a recent interview with Foreign Policy magazine, he wouldn’t back down, claiming that “absolutely” the Iraqis have been liberated. He even suggested there’s still a chance his dream of a square named after Bush in Baghdad can be realized:

FP: Does the rosy picture at all represent the country we see today? [...]

PERLE: Is it rosy today? Do I think most Iraqis have been liberated? Absolutely. …Obviously if it deteriorates into chaos or a new Saddam emerges and people are no better off than they were before, then there won’t be [a square named after President Bush]. …I think [Iraqis] will look back and say, we paid a terrible price, but it’s worth it.

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